Are we overdue for a stock market crash?



  • I have been thinking about joining FI for a while, and while the fact that we are in a small drop slightly puts me off, my bigger concern is a stock market crash which is common in tech stocks or rapidly rising stocks. I can see that prices have been going up historically rapidly and in my view unsustainably and at some point the bubble will have to burst. However, while I am a trader in the stock market and understand stock market cycles, I can't see any long term history for FI so I was wondering whether there have been sharp drops before which have eventually rebounded or whether the bubble has not burst yet?



  • @NewUser183665 we are just at the beginning of a great ride. 190.000 registered users yet, will soon be 1.000.000 users. So we are way away of a bubble. Small corrections for a few days we sometimes had, but the index always bounces back. Time to top up now!!!



  • FI shares are backed up by the DAILY dividend payouts. Even with current dividend payout the market isn't over value just yet.



  • @NewUser183665 hahaha considering the amount of countries that are probably going to be a part of this in the near and long future, I can't see anything close to a market crash, don't come here worrying people when you have not even invested mate.. hopefully u will be a confident trader soon, and if so happy trading.



  • This is nothing like the real stock market. I believe that looking at the historical trend of most of the top 200 players over the past year that the rise is extremely likely to continue. Prices seem to be mainly increasing because the number of customers are increasing and obviously the more money going into players, the more players’ prices will rise. If you see how many times this app has been downloaded on android and IOS then you will see compared to the big gambling names, there’s a huge way to go to match the number of their customers. I see this as major potential for growth should FI manage to keep attracting fresh blood.



  • @NewUser171924 Also think about how many traditional bookies there are, their market is much more saturated. Were as FI offer something a bit different.



  • The biggest differential to the stock market is the inability to short a player...
    You can go long, or get out... that's it!

    It means that the only downward pressure on a player is driven by the bet being closed - but with no benefit to any holder if a decline continues.

    This is why I have faith in the FI platform.



  • I remember when pb came in and players were being added daily for the first time, people were comparing them to penny stocks and that players would become worthless becuase there would be so many, I was one who thought that would happen and sold a lot of my players.
    The best players and prospects just rise to the top regardless and over the past 18 months or so I have been on here there has always been new oppatunities if you can spot them.
    I cant see a crash just dips.



  • There are still more countries to open up to, so would think no.



  • No. Next topic.



  • If anything now is probably a good time to invest. Significant parts of the market have been rubbish for a week, but prices are finally improving again!



  • I think when we invest (if long term especially) we need to understand we are investing in FI and the concept rather than the players market which in general seems to go up and down on performance and should be very predictable so no real crashes if you know what you are doing?

    FI have shown they can manipulate the market though and if cagey I would always say just dip your toe in the water rather than go full pool bomb. I admit I still have skeptisism myself 12/13 months in but I only invest what I'm happy to lose.. so on that basis I'm not even too worried about a crash.

    Do I see FI long term? 5-10 years?? Maybe not? But certainly 2-3 years which gives me plenty of time still to keep enjoying and hopefully profiting on what they do!!

    BTW I hope i'm wrong and the longer i invest the more confidence in the product i have... My point is 12-18 months or 2-3 years I think you can earn money and getting in early as possible before the bubble bursts is essential if you are to make it profitable...

    As for market caps... I would happily pay £100 for a players share... why not?? I dont see any ceiling cap as people will pay what they pay and if a share was guaranteeing funds back then why wouldnt you pay a lot more per future???



  • No crash in the short-medium term!

    I do not think we are due a crash in the short-medium term, as:
    a) I do not think the current market prices are over-inflated. Average returns on players are very good, when you factor in capital appreciation alongside dividends.
    b) I think that whilst FI do make mistakes, I reckon they understand how sensitive the market is to its rule changes/occasional shows of incompetence. They are still working out how to run a bigger operation, but it's coming along steadily.

    FI will be a place where the majority makes quite a bit of money for a little while yet. There will come a time when the market crashes, however.

    Eventually capital appreciation will slow

    FI isn't like bitcoin, because of the dividend system - the thing you own has intrinsic value. However, most of the value we currently expect to gain from our play, like bitcoin (and many other markets), is through capital appreciation. This capital appreciation has been and will continue to be easy to source whilst new money keeps piling in. However, there will come a time when this new money slows, which will slow capital appreciation, which will slow returns, which will make investing less desirable...

    Given the commission model, FI requires quite a bit of new money to come in for the average punter to make money. When net deposits hit £0 the average punter will be losing money, like with any other betting site.

    There will be a crash

    When this happens, what will happen to the site? I think net deposits will go negative for quite a while. The recent downturn showed how quickly some people leave when they see red, and this is when dividend returns are still good, and our recent history is of incredible capital appreciation. FI just isn't exciting enough to keep people playing when consistently losing money, in my opinion.

    We all need a plan for when a crash hits

    I guess what I'm saying is, we should all plan for when new money dries up. What's your expected returns from the site? How much of those do you plan to take from capital appreciation, and how much from dividends? Can you get enough from dividends alone? Will you withdraw your money at this point? Or will you restructure your portfolio in anticipation of this, to reduce risk? (Of course, capital appreciation will still be available at the net £0 deposits point, but only if you have a solid strategy.)

    But when?

    It's really hard to know when deposits will start to slow. There is a (fluctuating) rough ceiling that it is very hard for FI to grow beyond. This is determined by loads of factors neither we nor FI can fully control or fully understand, including how well the economy is doing, level of interest in investing/betting, level of interest in football, regulatory constraints, and more. FI are doing a good job of expanding right now, and it seems fairly obvious to me that there is loads of potential for FI to grow a lot more, given how much interest in investing/betting and football there is in the wider economy, and how small FI still is. We are nowhere near hitting the ceiling, in my opinion.

    But it will happen at some point. Just have a plan, be prepared, and all will be fine. :)



  • @Willie-Mink said in Are we overdue for a stock market crash?:

    No crash in the short-medium term!

    I do not think we are due a crash in the short-medium term, as:
    a) I do not think the current market prices are over-inflated. Average returns on players are very good, when you factor in capital appreciation alongside dividends.
    b) I think that whilst FI do make mistakes, I reckon they understand how sensitive the market is to its rule changes/occasional shows of incompetence. They are still working out how to run a bigger operation, but it's coming along steadily.

    FI will be a place where the majority makes quite a bit of money for a little while yet. There will come a time when the market crashes, however.

    Eventually capital appreciation will slow

    FI isn't like bitcoin, because of the dividend system - the thing you own has intrinsic value. However, most of the value we currently expect to gain from our play, like bitcoin (and many other markets), is through capital appreciation. This capital appreciation has been and will continue to be easy to source whilst new money keeps piling in. However, there will come a time when this new money slows, which will slow capital appreciation, which will slow returns, which will make investing less desirable...

    Given the commission model, FI requires quite a bit of new money to come in for the average punter to make money. When net deposits hit £0 the average punter will be losing money, like with any other betting site.

    There will be a crash

    When this happens, what will happen to the site? I think net deposits will go negative for quite a while. The recent downturn showed how quickly some people leave when they see red, and this is when dividend returns are still good, and our recent history is of incredible capital appreciation. FI just isn't exciting enough to keep people playing when consistently losing money, in my opinion.

    We all need a plan for when a crash hits

    I guess what I'm saying is, we should all plan for when new money dries up. What's your expected returns from the site? How much of those do you plan to take from capital appreciation, and how much from dividends? Can you get enough from dividends alone? Will you withdraw your money at this point? Or will you restructure your portfolio in anticipation of this, to reduce risk? (Of course, capital appreciation will still be available at the net £0 deposits point, but only if you have a solid strategy.)

    But when?

    It's really hard to know when deposits will start to slow. There is a (fluctuating) rough ceiling that it is very hard for FI to grow beyond. This is determined by loads of factors neither we nor FI can fully control or fully understand, including how well the economy is doing, level of interest in investing/betting, level of interest in football, regulatory constraints, and more. FI are doing a good job of expanding right now, and it seems fairly obvious to me that there is loads of potential for FI to grow a lot more, given how much interest in investing/betting and football there is in the wider economy, and how small FI still is. We are nowhere near hitting the ceiling, in my opinion.

    But it will happen at some point. Just have a plan, be prepared, and all will be fine. :)

    Well written piece and in complete agreement.

    When they were looking for investment they made this statement.

    "Our goal is to build a football stock market, with a market cap of £100m."

    I've been involved in financial company start ups and i know that there is a secret "Make like a bandit" price that all owners sell at. When the principles of the original business make way for $$$. I suspect the new buyers, people in online gambling like Playtech for example (look them up) buy the platform it will be about profitability. I think we'll all know when this moment is and the appointment of the recent said board members is a signal this is the future thought process...



  • @Ellisandro Adam Cole would go before the last markets open up, on the principle of selling in a rising market?



  • @Ollie said in Are we overdue for a stock market crash?:

    @Ellisandro Adam Cole would go before the last markets open up, on the principle of selling in a rising market?

    I would. I just need to get my annual revenue figures to a state that looks sustainable then prove it out via my EBIT. The gearing factor in the companies growth at that point would be a huge multiplier.

    I would suggest that 75-85% of this companies current expenditure is marketing, maybe with a OPex view on NASDAQ expenditure.

    Here's an interview with the new board member. Part Four from 10 mins onwards.

    http://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/interview-mark-blandford/



  • Market crashes will always be limited by the structure of the Index (as long as FI can pay out divs). More-so than traditional stock markets where prices are far removed from dividends.

    For example what is Neymar's intrinsic value? I would expect a return of £3 a year on average in divs so within a three year hold period he becomes profitable in pure dividend terms at below £9 even if he is valued a £0 by the market when it is time to sell.

    Therefore it is very hard for Neymar in his current role to fall below the £9 mark since other people can do the mathematics (and if they can't then I would happily buy loads at below his expected dividend wins).



  • @PB-man what do you estimate Neymar's market value will be in 3 years? More or less than £6.50?



  • @NewUser151922 Short answer more. He's a great deal.

    Taking the £3 figure he will be 29 so have at least three more years at the top so again he will be worth £9 in dividends over the three year hold. That's assuming no dividend increase and that he won't benefit from the retirements of Ronaldo/Messi.


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