No. of Futures vs Price per Future !!
AndyP32 last edited by
Let's hear your opinion on this topic....
Is it better to have more futures in a low priced player rather than build slowly on a high priced player?
An example is:
100 x Messi @ £9.15 = £915.00
457 x Stones @ £2.00 = £914.00
.....so based on this example the dividend payout on a Triple Day from 1st Nov would be:
100 x Messi winning Top Forward = 12p x 100 = £12.00
TOTAL PAYOUT = £12.00
457 x Stones winning Top Defender = 12p x 457 = £54.84
TOTAL PAYOUT = £54.84
So the money spent is virtually the same but the dividend return is greater for Stones because you own more futures by getting more for your money !!
If you can guarantee Stones will win as many buzz payouts as Messi then its a no brainer.
Its not that simple though. Stones might win top defender a lot but Messi is more likely to win top forward, star player and media buzz. Also, Messi has increased by something like £7 in the last 12 months (I think - I wasn't here a year ago).
Defenders buzz wins are more likely to be diluted by the penny shares whereas attacking players will be more consistent to top players.
Just my opinion of course but id personally mix and match.
I created A similar thread to this a few days ago called 'Quality or Quantity'
However it was with a smaller budget.
It was more along the lines of forward vs forward rather than players from different positions.
I would probably go for the 100 messi in your position
Come November 1st Defender PBs could be very erratic
It depends purely on
a) whether you think Messi will win 5 times as many PBs as Stones
b) whether the prices of the two players will rise or fall and by what percentage
If penny stocks weren't I thing then I would be tempted by Stones but they are so Messi looks better.
Defenders will be a total lottery after penny stocks are launched. I wouldn't pay over a £1 for any of them
I would like to give the other side to 56882's statement as I believe the defenders are as straight forward as the strikers are….
Defenders collect points for their passing, possession and clean sheets. So the reason for Stones (as the thread states as an example) being so high is because of this exactly! He plays for PEP who is a possession manager whose tactics are keep ball and straight away the points start racking up and they are one of the elite teams of the 5 leagues! ie ….more wins, more clean sheets, more passes…get my drift! De Bruyne is another PEP example..
And if he scores… well that’s just an extra 40 pts possibly 80 pts if a winning goal to his already consistent score! That’s a PB win!!
Yes, defenders can have players that score goals which is a great point grabber, but any stricker can get 3 from any league… on that.. Morata scored a hat-trick and still didn’t win performance buzz … because his all-round game was poor on the day…. Lukaku…typical example of someone who will rarely win PB yet scores goals and the media love him!!
Don’t be surprised if you see the same defenders popping up in the PB over the next few months and their price rise! But also don’t be surprised if you see random winners, just like the midfielders and the strikers!! But for less costs!!
Lastly, yes don’t be expecting media buzz because defenders are not talked about…. But one thing for sure, there is 12p per share in November for a defender just like the others!!!
PS Messi is just Messi!!!!!!!!
I think we will have to see ...
The big thing is though that the best forwards are already on the index - its pretty transparent. This isn't the case for defenders. There are a lot of ball playing teams in Europe and most of their players aren't on the index. Similarly there are a lot of attacking full backs for good teams ready to be added. We don't know who the best index defenders are yet. Stones is likely to be a good one but there could well be another dozen better than him which will devalue him.
Stones will probably need to score to win PBs. How many goals does he score a season ? What happens if those co-incide with a City loss ?
Yeah exactly...far more defenders to come into play as well, given there's not that many in the top 200 and most teams start with 4 of them.
Someone like Stones will continue to have high Opta scores, but far more chance of him being pipped for the dividend going forwards by some other defender who scores a GWG and keeps a clean sheet...it's a simple numbers game
The issue of longevity comes into play too. Messi won't go on forever and any injury from here could see his dramatic rise be significantly cut short.
Stones on the other hand is much younger, his price will probably hold well during any injury as a result.
I'd opt for the latter, as buying Messi is against my criteria.
Having said that I won't be spending a penny until I know what environment FI will be once it's been diluted and everything has settled down.
@The-Chartist I think Messi can go on for another 7 or 8 years and retire at 37 or 38 years old like Ibrahimović. He doesn't rely on his physique because he plays in the Spanish League and usually that's the area where players decline as they get older. Messi will be around for a long time.
He can but he isn't going to be the best player in the world for another 7 to 8 years. He will decline significantly- he may still be a damn good player but not a top of the index type player.
@mike778 But by that point people will have made money from the dividends.
I don't disagree and share your hypothesis completely.
However my strategy does not involve buying £9 players over 30 years old chasing divis....
1 big injury and bye bye £9....
You must have missed Ibras crash when he got injured last season... £6 back to a £1.
Have fun buying up Messi futures tho...
@The-Chartist Thank you.