Peak Value



  • Hi all, im new to the index so was just wondering about how the transfer buzz, in relation to the players value tends to play out?
    If i was to take Ramsey as an example i would imagine there will alot of transfer speculation in the next month or so as he can sign a pre contract abroad so his value should go up which i understand, but what would the like scenario be after Jan, a price fall? and then a rise again before the summer?
    Whats the general time frame a player holds his value after a transfer is complete? Does is tend to level out or take a fall?
    Any help would be much appreciated :)



  • depends on the player, where they go and how they do...

    last Jan Virgil Van Dijk announced his signing for Liverpool in DEC!!! but he continued to hog the media headlines after (picking up divis along the way) and despite falling in value he then sky rocketed when scoring on debut v Everton before another decline but now his price has since gone up to record levels!!

    Phillipe Coutinho was involved in arguably the biggest transfer of that window... Speculation grew as did media interest but the day he signed for Barcelona (moving out of the EPL is less attractive for investors) he fell dramatically like Neymar in the box and never really recovered (today he costs £1 less than he did a year ago).

    So for me... tactically.... getting in early (like 2/3 months before the window) and selling on the hype can ensure you come out with a healthy profit... Some will hold (i've done this with Lautaro Martinez) whilst others will flip as fast as they can (I did this with Alexis Sanchez)...

    Re Aaron Ramsey... Is now a good time to get in??? For me he's a little risky due to his high value but the rewards will be there to see over and before the window opens so i certainly see growth... so why not up to £5??? Then depending on who he goes to? Liverpool would be seen as a positive for holders, Juventus probably a disaster... That will judge when it's time to get out... But yes as mentioned... Before he pens to paper his price should increase and you might earn a few divis along the way... then on signature expect a price fall but the divis will continue.. weigh up if you think the divis and longer term growth will outway the initial fall? for me a great tactic is buy now, sell before the spike, then buy again on the drop if you believe that Ramsay will go on to better things at his next club? I worry though that he might just be a squad player going forward so as a long term option he probably wouldn't be for me??



  • If Ramsey goes to Bayern his price will drop becuase they have better pb players than him and I cant see him getting much MB over there.



  • @Tom77 said in Peak Value:

    If Ramsey goes to Bayern his price will drop becuase they have better pb players than him and I cant see him getting much MB over there.

    I bought him @265 & sold @465 a couple of weeks ago, he also generated me 41p in dividends (entirely MB iirc), but where ever he ends up I think £5 would be his maximum value & he could well be less as profit taking hits the price. Currently 430 I see a potentially small profit but large risks so would avoid at anything above say £3.75 & whilst I might be proved wrong, I see far greater risk/reward gains in players such as Richarlson, Coutinho or Pepe for similar prices.



  • @NewUser159387 said in Peak Value:

    @Tom77 said in Peak Value:

    If Ramsey goes to Bayern his price will drop becuase they have better pb players than him and I cant see him getting much MB over there.

    I bought him @265 & sold @465 a couple of weeks ago, he also generated me 41p in dividends (entirely MB iirc), but where ever he ends up I think £5 would be his maximum value & he could well be less as profit taking hits the price. Currently 430 I see a potentially small profit but large risks so would avoid at anything above say £3.75 & whilst I might be proved wrong, I see far greater risk/reward gains in players such as Richarlson, Coutinho or Pepe for similar prices.

    That’s good trading, yeah I fancy Coutinhio at some point, he could have a very high ceiling especially if Messi starts fading.



  • @Tom77 said in Peak Value:

    That’s good trading,

    More luck than judgement, as most of my portfolio is bought on a 3 year hold basis & I rarely sell early, choosing to ride out any price fluctuations & only seldomly cash in any extreme profits but I only really see him as a squad player so bought as a rare short/medium term transfer punt - which worked out nicely.


Log in to reply