Goalkeepers



  • Well done to everyone that took that chance and bought in on goalkeepers prior to the announcement. Now things are calming down I am looking at them as the best value in the market. I did a quick analysis of the best best value goalkeepers. Not gonna shout out names but you can get a goalie with a decent clean sheet record for between 80p to £1.30. So that means if they manage just one 2p clean sheet bonus, it nets 1.54 - 2.5% per match. As clean sheet bonus is here to stay and FI have market skimmed to attract a short term better as well as the longer term type now I can see goal keeper prices remaining stable and some rising with tranfer spec / decent clean sheet records so I see this as a safe and very good value buy. The link below gives you a look at the ones that are good value. PS one keeper has 7 eligible games in the next 30 days too ; )

    https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/spieler-statistik/weisseweste/statistik/1/wettbewerb/liga/verein/topprofi/plus/1



  • Dropped you a PM on here Matt.



  • Thanks for the info Matt.

    I agree that goalkeepers prices should be pretty stable is. The majority of those who bought to suddenly sell after the announcement would have done so by now.

    Moving forward i can see new and existing traders being drawn to goalkeepers as there is now great value in that position and for the first time we have perks to owning them.

    Will be interesting to see what happens to the goalkeepers who creep into the top 200.



  • I'm not convinced about this.

    Taking the premier league as an example (because i know it fairly well) you would expect 9 - 12 clean sheets per season for the keepers ranged 80p to 130p

    https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/clean_sheet?se=79

    Lets take an example of an 80p keeper with 10 clean sheets. This would return 20p in dividends...a nice 25%

    However, to keep the 30 day rule active you would have to buy & sell 9 times. For simplicity let's ignore capital appreciation and say you manage to successfully sell to market (not IS as that would destroy it). You nearly always sell for 1p less than the market value (especially if selling 100+) and you pay a 2% comm. That would be a total cost of (9 x 1p) + (0.02 x 79p) = 23.22p.

    That leaves you 3.22p worse off than the seasons clean sheet dividends (23.22 - 20). Keepers at this price cannot win MB, and they are still not eligible for PB.

    I have checked this with the various premier league keepers and they all seem to be loss making. I'm sure someone will be able to find some more positive European examples though.

    Obviously the main argument against this is that you wouldn't just keep buying the same keeper over & over again. You would try and target certain months of good fixtures - but remember so is everyone else...so prices may be higher at those times.

    Fairly sure the maths is correct but happy to be corrected if someone thinks it is wrong.



  • I can see your point but at the end of the day we want punters to put money in FI not other gambling sites so as a whole it gets bigger and we all profit.
    Let’s just keep it positive.



  • @Tom77 Yep fair enough, have edited the negative part out as it doesn't really serve any purpose.



  • It will be interesting to see if the big name keepers are able to grow enough if price to rise into and stay in the Top 200, if so then MB could become a game changer. Alisson did it previously, but now they have a 30 day clean sheet bonus, maybe others can too.

    I won’t pump my GKs, but I have one that if he keeps a clean sheet on Saturday, could potentially attract investors and rise into the Top 200.



  • Wrote a reply to this but seems to have got lost in the ether while the forum was down.

    Was saying I don’t see the point of looking at yearly stats for keepers when it’s basically a30 day bet (they still don’t have much value beyond the new div)
    But , market moves aside, if a £1 goalie has 6 or 7 chances in 30 days to win 2 percent and cover commission , then any more than 1 CS is profit.
    Of course all depends on how the prices change as that profit could be wiped out but it doesn’t seem like a bad bet, and if others also think so then prices shouldn’t fall too much right now

    Let’s see how it goes anyway. I flipped all my keepers and then bought some back in on what I hope was a low. Bring on the clean sheets!



  • Likewise, I wrote a reply which seems to have disappeared!

    Basically it said that there are still 50p or less GKs available who are playing regularly in PB leagues (France and Germany in particular). A single 2p clean sheet will exceed their 1p sale commission, so it's a potentially profitable strategy (even if there is no growth in share price).



  • @Matt-FI @Matt-FI I think there is an argument to say that if a cheap under the radar keeper in a pb league has a good run of clean sheets and proves their worth people will take note and the price will rise. Take for example the Reims keeper, most like myself had probably never heard of him before gk pb, but he has 8 clean sheets in 13 appearances so far this season. Hypothetically If the gk pb would have commenced at the start of the season he would have returned 16p and for an 80p player that is a very attractive 20% roi already so early in the season! Of course you won't get this unless you keep buying back in but that's not the point. The well researched that find these nuggets of gold early, benefit from 1 or more of those clean sheets if they pick the right 30 days and have the option to buy back in but even if they didn't, the price will rise when people catch on about x gk's win streak and all the hype goes off on twitter, slack, this forum, etc. It's proven that people like "cheap" and good value and the popularity of the "cheap players" thread showed this especially for those punters that have sub £1000 to invest. £500 - £1000 now becomes a much more lucrative investment than investing in the top 200 or high value squad and probability of gk clean sheets and goals from sub £1 players are now very attractive commodities imo.

    I think some goalkeepers that prove their worth are potentially very undervalued and can see those sub or just over £1 gks that get a good run of clean sheets over a season making a decent capital gain rise and so I'm happy to take the calculated risk of holding onto them as I feel this is quite a low risk strategy in terms of losses but the capital gains could be 50%+ with a little dividend bonus on top. a 50p gk rising to 75p isn't beyond the realms of imagination for example.There's value to be had if the right player is picked. Of course there will be a price ceiling and a bit of luck involved but pick the right ones and there's money to be made with this strategy.



  • @Mr-Matt enjoyed reading what you just said, i bought my keepers nearly two weeks ago while everyone called them worthless and dead money.sold them all for my best profits by a landslide last night. I was amazed this morning to find serious gk bargains to be had. So ive started on them again. Any team can get a cs sheet anytime. think exeter away to man utd, swansea beating liverpool last season. Not interested in the best teams, its those mid table frustrating teams that are the ones ive eyed second time round. Just like a goal, one clean sheet and watch them fly. And agree with defenders too. Whether i get the dividend or its later in the season.when a 60p defender who plays week in week out pops up with a goal, he is going to jump nicely. My strategy on fi totally different now. I dont care a jot for £14 hazard anymore or £10 salah. Far more value elsewhere for my money as proven last night!



  • @Finlay77 so do you think money can be made when a defender scores? As soon as goal goes in buy? Then sell just after midnight? Easier to flip as 3p for defenders?



  • @Rob well since g and a started ive watched prices like majority of traders and the mad rush is proven. Easily 20p up when someone scores. If they go and get pb too they keep on soaring. But the downside to forwards is they get subbed alot and if you havent realised people get out immediately and youre down 20p before you know it. I found that out via higuain. How many defenders get subbed regularly?



  • @Finlay77 I have noticed the sell off starts in the 60th minute if a (cheaper) forward hasnt scored, its crazy. Not a fan of the volatility at all which is why I am staying clear of the new divs and just using them as a bonus for new purchases - I look at FI as more of a 1-2 year project rather than a quick win.

    I never used to win betting on football at the bookies so no point me getting back into short term gambling. it only goes one way haha



  • @Wilba i agree mate, which is why i will buy the players before hand not after scoring. I still have my players i want to keep longterm, their price drops ridiculously and thats when i try to top them up and keep building them.



  • I think I have really matured quickly as a trader on here 😎

    Since joining in September, I made A LOT of trades which have roughly worked out breaking even (lucky, as so many were bad impulse buys that lost a lot of value!).
    Since the end of October however, I've pretty much sat on my investments (12 players overall now) and done nothing - No panic buys, no panic sells, and more importantly...no involvement prior to, or post in-play divs announcement.

    As a result, my generally balanced portfolio is up 2% since Monday and I'm content - I invested in a lot of attacking players throughout the G&A divs trial and even though most are now not eligible for new in-play divs (being over 30 days old), they were solid prospects and are steadily rising.
    Now, the 'old me' would have sold off half of them to plough into the goalkeepers rush that happened just before the latest announcement. I'm glad I didn't and here is the main reason...

    Ok, a keeper is cheap compared to most attacking players but if he concedes after 1 minute then it's instantly no dividends for him, whereas an outfield player can earn dividends ANY TIME and NOT JUST ONCE PER GAME. I fully expect this goalkeeper trend to quickly subside as people realise the real value is still in affordable attacking mids and forwards (a couple of goals and they are likely to win PB as well as twice as much in-play divs as a clean sheet goalie can).

    FI have done brilliantly by adding at least something to make keepers relevant, however the 15 shares I bought in Donnaruma weeks ago won't be getting added to any time soon 😂😂



  • @ScouseSte sold off my ter Stegen and now only have 10 shares left in Donnarumma, my only keeper. Will see how it goes but I agree keepers are now relevant but not going mad on them yet.



  • @ScouseSte hence why i bought my keepers nearly two weeks back and sold all for my best profits ive ever had here. I got lecomte at 43p.burki 62p.sommer 62p.zszesny 78p. Mandanda 42p.maignan and gulacsi around 46p. thats just a few.Very low risk. Agatello made 8 grand ffs 😂. Now im going for the dirt cheap week in week out defenders and attackers who play for mid table and lowet. Score a goal, the cheapest fly highest. Also, great to hear you feel your a better trader, i feel the same!



  • @Weedster said in Goalkeepers:

    @ScouseSte sold off my ter Stegen and now only have 10 shares left in Donnarumma, my only keeper. Will see how it goes but I agree keepers are now relevant but not going mad on them yet.

    Haha setting the world alight with 25 Donnarumma shares between us 😂. What was it Del Boy said? "This time next year we'll be millionaires!"



  • @Finlay77 said in Goalkeepers:

    @ScouseSte hence why i bought my keepers nearly two weeks back and sold all for my best profits ive ever had here. I got lecomte at 43p.burki 62p.sommer 62p.zszesny 78p. Mandanda 42p.maignan and gulacsi around 46p. thats just a few.Very low risk. Agatello made 8 grand ffs 😂. Now im going for the dirt cheap week in week out defenders and attackers who play for mid table and lowet. Score a goal, the cheapest fly highest. Also, great to hear you feel your a better trader, i feel the same!

    Very shrewd my friend, and great foresight. Well done 👏🏻👍🏻


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