Jovic On The Rise!



  • Been watching his price for the last two weeks. He bottomed out in my opinion. Now started to rise. Has a good 30p in him to get back to his best. I feel there is growth.

    I’ve monitored his price every day for a month. I was expecting it to drop a bit more given the break in Germany but deffo see an upturn now given the price shift the past couple of days.

    Value still there.



  • He's certainly dropped in value due to not playing and now he's climbing again with the Bundesliga break to end shortly and no doubt plenty of transfer speculation lies ahead... His growth at this moment in time is completely down to performance and (like Piatek at Genoa) if he keeps scoring he'll keep rising.... My worry is if he does go through a dry spell at any time will he fall much? What happens when his loan move is up also?

    Always tricky to back a player with no real history of form, are we gambling on a one season wonder or is Jovic really going to be the next Mateja Kezman....?

    I perhaps wouldn't invest at £4.23 as he's highly priced due to his recent form and could potentially be playing in Portugal next season but I did back at £2.94 so have plenty of profit to keep monitoring on what happens with his future!!!



  • Its unlikely that he will go back to Benfica as they have a relatively low release clause which a number of clubs are monitoring.

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  • @dannypea You'll be pleased to hear your old friend stats come in pretty handy here.

    Luka Jovic

    Expected goals per 90 17/18: 0.74
    Goals per 90 17/18: 0.78

    Expected goals per 90 18/19: 0.73
    Goals per 90 18/19: 1.07

    So yes Jovic is having a bit of a hot spell this season scoring at a goal per 90 played when his expected goals are at 0.73 per 90. However 0.73 goals per 90 is still an elite rate, especially for a 20 year old. If/when Jovic regresses to the mean he will still be scoring lots of goals. The fact he has been consistent across two seasons now is promising also.

    Piatek

    Expected goals per 90 18/19: 0.51
    Goals per 90 18/19: 0.74

    Piatek's recent displays show regression to the mean after an unsustainable start. He was scoring at around a goal per 90 from only 0.5 expected goals per 90 which would have been a historic over performance. Alas he could not keep that up and a return of one in two looks his level for the time being.



  • oh F*CK OF!!!!!

    hahahhahaha only joking!!! happy new year mate!!!

    I'll be watching his next game and will be keenly keeping an eye on both players and if they haven't scored by the 75th minute i'll let you know!!!! ;-)



  • I agree, doubt he'll go to Benfica, wonder if Eintracht will have first say though? I'm sure offers from Spurs or Liverpool may be hard to turn down (where would that leave Jovic though? reserves striker??) but fending off Palace... If he ends up playing for anyone outside of the Champions League next season that might have a say on his price too?



  • @PB-man I really like Piatek, but feel he needs a move to a better side. More chances for him = more goals.



  • @PB-man said in Jovic On The Rise!:

    Expected

    Where do you get those stats from mate?



  • For me there is next to no chance he will be at Benfica next season. They are a selling club, and I’m almost certain I read Frankfurt have a £10m option to sign him.

    Definitely room for movement in his price if he carries on his form after winter.

    If he was at Dortmund/Munich he would be £5+



  • Luka Jovic last 4 games before the winter break.

    11min off bench
    9min off bench
    90min and 2 goals in disappointing draw with Mainz
    90min in 0-3 loss to Bayer.

    This was a part of his fall in price too, not just the break... I was waiting to re-buy but think ill be cautious here.

    The Benfica return ain't happening.



  • Frankfurt will activate the option to buy him for £10mill and sell him for £50mill. £40mill profit (did some pretty hot maths there) It’s practically a done deal. Unless he forgets how to play football.


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