Share split Theory



  • Hi everyone, I'm fairly new to FI but I have been reading quite a lot of articles about how the market works and I have a theory about what could happen after the share split. I have noticed there is lots of well known, popular players who cost less than £2. For example, Diego Costa (£1.81), Edin Dzeko (£1.72), Gundogan (£1.63) and Modric (£1.62)
    I understand that these aren't players who perform well in terms of PB or MB, but when they cost less than 50p per share, surely they will seem very attractive to new/inexperienced users who will just buy them because of their name? How much influence do these type of users have on prices?

    Thanks in advance for any advice



  • @NewUser256709 Same logic stands right now anyway. They look attractive compared to the big boys of FI. So I really can't see what difference the share split would make to that.



  • @Misto said in Share split Theory:

    @NewUser256709 Same logic stands right now anyway. They look attractive compared to the big boys of FI. So I really can't see what difference the share split would make to that.

    It would if they keep dividends for g@a the same or even upped them.



  • @Tom77 said in Share split Theory:

    @Misto said in Share split Theory:

    @NewUser256709 Same logic stands right now anyway. They look attractive compared to the big boys of FI. So I really can't see what difference the share split would make to that.

    It would if they keep dividends for g@a the same or even upped them.

    G and A suits cheap strikers.

    So yeah if they quadrupled G and A (in real terms) which is what you are saying and what the Devs said would not happen then of course it would suit cheap strikers.

    Would be shocked if they quadrupled G and A without increasing PB and MB given the tantrums that G and A caused originally.



  • @mike778 Adam Cole has already said dividends will be cut inline with the split.



  • It’s going to look pretty lucrative if you could buy a jota or Januzaj, mertins, belotti, at 30-50p and return 2p for each goal over 30 days.

    Encourages more trading, surely what FI want.

    This all in my head of course. I’m just very cautious becuase the ‘split’is getting so hyped up, buy all the top 10 ect... Neymar will be cheap at £5..... they will double ect.

    What If the bottom is end becomes more profitable, changes have to happen eventually.



  • @Misto said in Share split Theory:

    @mike778 Adam Cole has already said dividends will be cut inline with the split.

    They were talking about Mb and pb I’m pretty sure.



  • @Tom77 He just said dividends. However I highly doubt they will leave one section alone and cut another. I would send the market out of kilter.



  • @Misto said in Share split Theory:

    @Tom77 He just said dividends. However I highly doubt they will leave one section alone and cut another. I would send the market out of kilter.

    It’s just a thought, the way things are going its getting very top heavy already.



  • @Misto I don't think it is the same logic as stands now, a player costing 40p seems very attractive, whereas £1.60 isn't the same pyschologcially



  • @NewUser256709 That is the theory for the share split as whole. So the same could be said for the top players. Regardless anything we say is all theory til we see it.



  • @Misto said in Share split Theory:

    @Tom77 He just said dividends. However I highly doubt they will leave one section alone and cut another. I would send the market out of kilter.

    I can see IPDs being cut less than PB/MB for a number of reasons.



  • @Keegan's-Bluff

    I hope that's not the case.

    The stupid G&A dividends caused enough problems and market volatility when they were introduced. Hopefully FI are not stupid enough to weight the market more towards In-Play dividends during the Share Split.

    There has been no official suggestion that they will, so I think it will be fine.



  • @ocs123 there won't be an official suggestion - well, having said that, Mike B is always liable to slipping a wink into his Twitter replies (which only represents his own views, naturally).

    However, I think this was hinted at in the FIG pod (to my ears at least). Also if you look at the current IPDs - they do not easily divide into x2 or esp x4, unlike the existing PB/MB divs.

    They clearly want to move more towards IPDs rather than PB/MB and the Share Split is a really easy way of doing this with minimal fuss/outrage.



  • I hope the IPDs will be stopped when the split happens as I fear it will affect the "growth" of the whole market. The top end players will rise significantly but the lesser players will become so volatile because people will be buying for each game and selling off after preventing the players rising? Is this just my opinion or does anybody have similar views??



  • @Dan-w I think the growth will come in cycles. First the big hitters will grow, they're a dependable and safe option during times of change. Then the middle tier will grow because they will look cheap compared to the big boys. Finally, the smaller value players to catch up with the middle tier.
    That's what I'm banking on anyway!



  • @GregF is this how you think it will be regardless of whether the ipds stay or go?



  • @Dan-w said in Share split Theory:

    I hope the IPDs will be stopped when the split happens as I fear it will affect the "growth" of the whole market. The top end players will rise significantly but the lesser players will become so volatile because people will be buying for each game and selling off after preventing the players rising? Is this just my opinion or does anybody have similar views??

    FI have to make money, there is no way they are stopping IPD. It makes the cheaper players part of the game, otherwise they are pointless. You can make money if you know what you are doing.



  • @Tom77 I'm not doubting the money making opportunities, I play the long game really and don't get involved in the ipds. I guess they do make it more appealing for the "gamblers" to get their fix as appose to the investors. Best of both I guess?



  • @Dan-w Yea. I'm not sure what the take up is for the in play stuff. I think there's a long term trader market, those who look for MB, PB and capital appreciation to fill their wallets, and I think there's a separate g&a chaser market who buy and sell on a daily basis.
    Personally I can't see in play divs going anywhere. They bring in too much commission for FI, keep it entertaining for short term traders and they're also a nice little bonus for the longer term traders too. If anything, because the 1p and 0.5p would become almost worthless with a 4 way split, I can potentially see them increasing with (or just after) the split. Potentially 0.5p per goal and 0.25 for an assist after the split maybe? Or even 0.5p on each to encourage more trading on midfielders and wingers?


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