How transfers effect price!?
Quick thing I am trying to understand is when is the player at peak / most profitable.
For example, I understand transfer speculation for a big move, a step up or somewhere they will get more playing time leads to hype, and also potential media buzz points. This sees a rise.
However, if the sage goes on for another few days / weeks, and the price has not moved much or even gone down, what is likely to happen at the moment the transfer is confirmed!? Is this where we will see the real spike in price!?
Case in point Piatek and Denis Suarez. Both were 2 of my first players I brought when I joined 2 weeks ago as they were in the news. Now Piatek has hardly move, currently 10 p up, despite his move being imminent and all but confirmed now.
On Suarez, I have seen 30p rise and now down to a 20p loss. Again I would be interested to hear your thoughts on what will happen if he gets his move to Arsenal this week?? Am I likely to regain my 20p loss, and make money on top, or not nessecarily?
Does it all ride on how they perform once they start playing, rather than just sign on the dotted line?
I know it’s on a case by case basis but if you could use the 2 examples as a guide or any transfers from the past that would really help me start understanding how this market works!
Thanks in advance for all of your inputs, you are a great bunch!
Generally, the price goes down after a transfer is confirmed. The exception to this will be a player moving to top PL club or a mega team like Barca or Bayern.
Suarez is likely to a plummet in the short term if he doesn’t move.
Piatek an interesting case. In theory, he’s made a big move to a massive club. In practice, it means he won’t be moving to Chelsea / Real Madrid anytime soon, which people may have been holding for. So I think his price will fall slightly unless he’s on absolute top form in his first few games.
I think it can vary but general rule of thumb from below user.
look at the graph for the Higuain transfer, dropped on confirmation - however if he had made it in time to sign and play in the tottenham game than I'd imagine it would have risen more as users hope for that debut goal against a top 6 team,.