Is my thinking correct?
I have again rearranged my portfolio for the 3rd time (1st 2 times I was learning and clearing) and am breaking even currently, including all losses from my learning time.
I am happy with portfolio now and won't be changing it unless something drastic happens, or someone can tell me why I am completely wrong. I know I have too much invested in Abraham but potential is huge there and I don't want to take a loss on him (I bought in error, I meant to get 10 and managed to click spend all or something) so I have sold a few when he was in profit but am happy with the risk now.
I know that I could move some money onto people that would pay off now, but I believe this strategy will pay my 10% target that I have set myself, I am not here for big wins and gambles but small and consistent profits.
My thoughts are...
Pulisic and Abraham - I have thought long and hard about these and have nearly dropped them several times. I am now confident that they will rise and look super cheap when the split happens and will be holding long term.
Rashford - My big name - Long term hold
Sterling - My one gamble, if he gets a game I can cash well, if not its money down the drain. One for the future and I am unsure if I will get out when I can or hold. Watch and see player
Piatek - 30 day hold and then evaluate, low risk
Balotelli - 30 day hold and then evaluate, higher risk but I am expecting him to start strong
Courtois - 30 day hold for dividends then if they make GK more attractive I hold, if they don't I see for little risk
@MrWh1te I'll be brutally honest mate so please don't take this the wrong way.
As I hold some of these players, i know the prices they are and what they have been so I'd say you seem to have bought a few at their higher prices. As you say you bought these due to learning so that's fair enough but my advice would always be to but players on a dip, not always on a rise. Usually players such as pulisic will fall once they actually complete a transfer. He will as you say probably rise again after the split and once he's playing for Chelsea so not the end of the world.
Once other honest observation, you put that balotelli is a high risk buy and piatek a low risk one. I personally would be tempted to say they are the opposite in a way.
Both are players whos game is 100% about scoring goals. If either doestnt do this then they are likely to see a drop.
I bought piatek cos I think he'll be a star for years but if he doesn't hit the ground running for Milan I think he'll drop.
I don't think balotelli will drop massively cos he will always grab a goal here or there so for his current price he's not a bad but and he'll always have interest due to his past and previous spells in England.
@MrWh1te for what it's worth I agree with your thinking regarding Rashford, Piatek, Abraham and Balotelli. Rashford for obvious reasons, and Balotelli always starts strong for a new team. I would definitely get rid if his price jumps to £2, or as soon as the IPD 30-day window is up though.
Abraham is a striker I am watching closely to see how he does at Villa 'til the end of the season. He won't get a game for Chelsea. Not a chance. But, I can see them cashing in in the summer for sure and I think he'd be a solid starter for the Bournemouths, Wolves, Leicesters of the PL. Could be some good profit to be had there.
Courtois, as you say, is a risk, but at £20 it's not exactly soul destroying - we're talking 5 or 6 pints right?! Could score you a couple of Clean Sheet IPD's as profit. Can't see his price moving at all though.
I see where your head is at regarding Sterling. It's bothers me that Spurs have such a list of attacking injuries and he still hasn't come off the bench though, and now that Son is on his way back to Wembley his chances are getting slimmer. He could be a hold for another season or even two. He's at the right club for getting his chance though - IF he's good enough.
Pulisic is one that bothers me though. I just don't see how he fits into Sarri's tactics, or the Chelsea starting 11 either tbh. To me it looks like a panic buy because they are seriously worried about losing Hazard and Hudson-Odoi and definitely isn't a Sarri signing imho. I could be completely wrong about him, but he looked over price in real life and to me he looks over priced on FI too.
Thank you. Yes I bought both Abraham and Pulisic when they were at their top prices, they were one of my first buys. Certainly not a mistake I will be looking to replicate.
Interesting about Piatek and Balotelli.
I think both will hold value and (hopefully) score goals. The reason I put Balotelli higher risk is it never seems to be far off that he downs tools and stops trying. So I see him much more of a short term hold for divs and then get out. Piatek I would put as someone who has more longevity and could potentially hold him for longer.
Courtois yes I agree. Buying him today as I did, gives 6 games in the 30 day window, so I will be following closely for divs. I can then get out for free most likely, with the divs paying commission, with the added opportunity if they decide to change divs (I don't think they will but I do think there is a chance they will, maybe 20%).
Pulisic, yes I get what you are saying, and agree, to a degree. I guess this is where my poker brain kicks in. As he is atm, I would say he is most certainly over-priced. But with share split (and I am kind of betting against the main thoughts of what people think will happen) he will look cheap and make me a profit.