Finally...a steady Portfolio (but small I know)



  • It seems finally after nearly a month, I seem to have a steady portfolio. I know it is small compared to all you other traders out there but could I please have your opinions;

    J Sancho x3 Green
    V Junior x5 Red (This is crippling me but holding on for obvious reasons)
    C Hudson x10 Green
    Joao Felix x5 Green
    R Leao x5 Red
    R Brewster x10 Green
    S Gnabry x5 Green
    A Morelas x5 Green
    C Adams x15 Green
    R Gravenberch x5 Red

    All in all I'm up which is all that matters I suppose.



  • Looks like a solid & diverse portfolio - lots of players that I have and a few that i'd like to add.

    Just sit back and keep selling/rebuying to a minimum.



  • @Chris-J That's my problem, I like to tinker...think I'll leave them all for a month or 2 apart from a couple of additional purchases though...but who?/ (the question I always have). May do nothing until the SS kicks in!!



  • @gball1975

    I think it's very high risk.
    Most of these players are not yet proven at the highest level.
    It baffles me that the likes of Vinicius and CHO are valued higher than Griezmann, Kane etc.
    I just think the most promising youngsters are currently at massively inflated prices.
    So there's the risk - possible crash.

    Now you've felt that sting with Vinicius, you know the potential risk, I could be wrong and they could all continue to rise, but they could also drop.

    I like a safer bet.
    Let's take Eric Dier, currently at 73p. Assuming the share split is /4, then he's 18p.
    18p.....I mean how much further can he drop from there, is there any real risk ?
    Let's compare him to the kid at Newcastle. Being realistic, which of the two is more likely to play in the nations cup finals this summer ? Which is likely to be playing CL games next season ? Which is likely to be playing in a team that wins more than they lose and typically dominates possession ?

    Right now with the share split looming and uncertainty over the dividend structure I'm playing it safe. Not looking at how much potential there is for growth, rather how much "negative potential" is there. Obviously there's a likely chance that older players in their 30s will drop gradually with age, but if I'm right those with the biggest potential for losses are ironically the youngest players, who've seen huge price rises of late.
    The only one I'm holding there is Gnabry, but he's significantly older than the others. He's proven at BL level and is starting games in CL and for Germany.

    I hope I'm wrong, I really do, but if you see a player slightly older who looks "safe" I'd urge getting some. I think a lot of these 20-50p (post split) players may see a quick return to £1 or more.
    I have a horrible feeling that's going to be funded by experienced investors dumping large quantities of Vinicius, Sancho, Rashford etc.
    They'll be first to dump and it'll happen quickly over the course of a few hours.
    They regularly do this with new IPO's added to the index, they did it during deposit bonuses and I believe their fingers are hovering over the IS button (the first 6 on your list).
    Making massive profit and essentially killing the index for most - typically less experienced FI traders.

    Every player has a real value and there's no way Leao should be higher than say Griezmann, no way CHO should be higher than Sterling.
    I'm very concerned...I don't want every user who's joined recently staring at a portfolio in the red, but I'm sure the sharks are blowing up prices, waiting for others to buy in later, then dumping.

    My advice is to ignore what everyone else is doing, ignore what's trending. Look only at prices and buy who you think is good value. Then hold, hold, hold.
    If worse comes to worse, and they all go red before you can act. Hold them, get more funds in if you want to buy, eventually the cycle will repeat itself - they'll all rise again in future and turn green.



  • @C-Arroyo New trader and depsite my inexperience, this is exactly how i see it to build a portfolio. I haven't lumped on young high risers, more safer players, less volatile. Might not become a millionaire in a week but i wont lose my bollix and still learning all the time. Glad to here you back this up.



  • @NewUser285451

    Now really isn't the time for new users to take high risks.

    The experienced users have trading strategies in place and they've been anticipating this share split for 18 months.

    Yours is a very sensible entry into FI trading. I think you'll see that shortly after the split when your safe low risk investments don't bomb. When that happens you'll see rises and hopefully a general rise across your portfolio.

    Again Dele Ali - Is there a safer investment right now ?
    I hold 200 players and no more Ali than the others, but I hope he's an example that makes my point. He's a good age, good club, good position, good potential - He may not be top of the list on any of those factors, but in a general sense you know what you're getting.



  • @C-Arroyo Alli is a little bit better example,not much though.
    Dier however, he is that price because he is dog shit!



  • Ok N'dombele.
    Same price (as Longstaff), but more proven.
    Fancied by Pep and other top managers.



  • @C-Arroyo I agree with that 1. I don't get the hype with longstaff tbh. There's a lot better players on here but not all suit the scoring matrix or the hype.



  • Just added another to my portfolio.

    Joao Mario (26) Inter Milan - 85p.
    That's productive in domestic games, eligible in Euro Nations this summer, Likely to be at Euro 2020, by which time he'll be 27yo and in his prime. He was excellent when they last won it at 23.

    Either that or I sell when he hits £1.50



  • What about Goretzka? - he is my biggest buy and seems a great price at £2.61 playing in a strong Bayern team. Can't see why these youngsters are double/treble or more his price....



  • @Abaalan

    Great player, great price.
    Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see him bag 100 goals (on all levels) in the next 3 years.
    It's hard to put an ideal sell price/date on Goretska as he's one of those who could see the most improvement in price over the next couple of years.

    I think he's an excellent choice for your biggest buy.
    The only reason he didn't start against Liverpool was tactical. His positioning in the team is essentially a luxury player, though he works hard, he's naturally a very offensive minded player who can do most things on the pitch, but his head always takes him forwards. Bayern and Germany know this well. To both he is "the" key player in their plans. They have craved a replacement for Michael Ballack and now they have one. The club and nation is looking after his future. No one argued when he signed for Bayern - everyone concedes it is the best place for him to be. If he were English and playing for Utd he'd be £30 on here - So start nagging FB to use Der Spiegel as a source on MB



  • @C-Arroyo said in Finally...a steady Portfolio (but small I know):

    The only reason he didn't start against Liverpool was tactical

    Aside from the ankle injury that kept him out of the match day squad completely, you mean? 😂



  • @LukeMalla

    I didn't notice.
    I don't need to on that one. It's away. You play the old Spaniard.
    He'll be fit at the Allianz no worries about that.



  • It'll be Thiago, James and Goretska at the Allianz, if Kovac doesn't bottle it and start Javi again.

    I think that's asking for trouble against this lot from Liverpool.
    Surely it's better to go at 'em and that's what Germany wants to see I'm sure.

    I expect Goretska to replace Javi at the Allianz, from the start. I expect him to score the goal that breaks Liverpool hearts...until they wake up and see that's the best thing that could have happened to them...They might just canter to the title here afterwards.

    What price 24 hours later if Goretska starts and bags a brace in a 2-0 home victory for Bayern ?
    I'm suggesting that's exactly the plan, that's the script. He's a huge danger to Liverpool and I rate Fabinho (best DM in Brazil).
    As a gooner I will have some empathy on the night, that place gets every bit as loud as Anfield and Goretska is built for it.



  • @LukeMalla

    Oh come on Luke. If you're going to take out the danger man, you do it at home during the first leg. You'll get more chances to connect properly and make sure he's out with the crowd on side and a timid ref.
    Better for Bayern to wrap him up in cotton wool for the second leg. Look they can't all be crocks (I suspect you are a Dortmund fan with yellow PJ's). If Coman is the liability you suggested, someone has to be there come the big night.



  • @C-Arroyo
    Isn't one of the points of trading that you think of the young prospects and watch them rise?
    J Sancho x3 Green Held for the obvious reason, transfer spec
    V Junior x5 Red Young, Madrid starter, long term
    C Hudson x10 Green Young, England U21 tournament, transfer spec
    Joao Felix x5 Green Young, a lot of transfer spec to big clubs
    R Leao x5 Red Young, on fire in France
    R Brewster x10 Green Very hot prospect, just back from injury, will break into first team soon
    S Gnabry x5 Green Young and steady
    A Morelas x5 Green On fire for Rangers and should move in the summer to a bigger main league club
    C Adams x15 Green On fire for BMC and a lot of transfer spec
    R Gravenberch x5 Red 16 years old and already played for Ajax first team (once I now but one for the future)

    I hear what you are saying of course, everything is a risk unless you have aload of the top 5 players but isn't that the game we play?
    Also, just to be curious...who would you plump the next £50?



  • @gball1975

    Tough question, but I'll offer a selection of those I think are currently the best value available.

    ter Stegen, Varane, Dier, Bernardeschi

    In general terms I think forwards will be first to correct, balance and stagnate due to popularity. Subsequently I think working from keepers up presents the most value to new users.
    Keepers at the top present good value and an instant in-play dividend return (look at fixtures in the coming 30 days).
    The entire France world cup winning back line are undervalued when compared to "pop" defenders.
    The Athletico Madrid mid is young, world class and a steal.
    I was struggling a little to name a forward, but I think every player I've mentioned will provide a minimum 100% return within 12 months.



  • @C-Arroyo said in Finally...a steady Portfolio (but small I know):

    @gball1975

    Tough question, but I'll offer a selection of those I think are currently the best value available.

    ter Stegen, Varane, Dier, Bernardeschi

    In general terms I think forwards will be first to correct, balance and stagnate due to popularity. Subsequently I think working from keepers up presents the most value to new users.
    Keepers at the top present good value and an instant in-play dividend return (look at fixtures in the coming 30 days).
    The entire France world cup winning back line are undervalued when compared to "pop" defenders.
    The Athletico Madrid mid is young, world class and a steal.
    I was struggling a little to name a forward, but I think every player I've mentioned will provide a minimum 100% return within 12 months.

    I assume you anticipate a separate dividends category for keepers then? At the moment they are a complete waste of time and money bar a very odd exception and I'm sure if you wanted to play for IPD you could get a cheaper keeper. Ter Stegen is never going to be in the news, I doubt he'll ever be in with a chance of pb either and he's old enough that he's established so there's no reason for his price to rise outside of a keeper category.

    Varane is cheap because he doesn't win dividends. One of those players who is excellent in real life but rubbish on here. For someone so good his pb is really poor which is reflected in his price. Again his age restricts any further growth unless he's linked with a move to England.

    Bernadeschi has potential but doesn't play enough for me which means no pb. Who is the Athletico Madrid midfielder? Unless you meant to say Dier as one of your top value players?



  • @Joev

    ter Stegen - Up around 10% this past month which is reasonable, as well as winning in play dividends at around a further 20%
    Good value which is increasing their trade, despite commission for those choosing to flip. For those choosing to hold there's growth that I project will balance in between £2-3 for said keeper as with Oblak.

    A dividend for keepers would be a bonus, as would opening MB to all squad players, but they don't factor into my current strategy. However the clean sheet dividends have added a small amount of value to keepers in general (to a point - the commission cost).

    Varane is cheap because he doesn't win dividends.
    Varane who scored a winning goal and won a match day dividend... plays alongside a more experienced defender in Ramos who takes more responsibility and shows more for the ball. I watch Real regularly and Varane is steadily taking an increasing amount of that responsibility to take possession and distribute the ball offensively, he is also increasingly targeted at set pieces where he is physically dominant whilst having a young head on his shoulders. Certain to start for France at Euro 2020 and always eligible for a high number of big games I'm holding long term. Likewise Eric Dier.

    Which Athletico midfielder ? All of them, well Koke, Saul, Lemar and Rodri Hernandez anyway.
    Another debate but I suggest Athletico are "the" best team in which to invest on FI at present.
    As regards the midfield there (I watch every game), Simeone has openly (and recently) made moves to change the style of play. They are now trying to transition to more possession based football and a more offensive style of play. This is in large part to accommodate Lemar, but is also suited to Lucas, Arias and Morata. Koke, Saul and Rodri are good enough to fit in at any club, any formation.
    I said they'd win trophies, they will.
    I said they'd beat Juventus, they did.
    I said Saul would score in the last game. He did.

    Bernardeschi doesn't play enough....but he is competing in a lineup where Dybala doesn't play enough.
    It's fair trade offs at any big club on FI. As with Sane/Sterling
    Berdi is playing more frequently and consistently scores very highly on points when he starts, this is without any addition of goals. Mandzukic and CR7 are getting on now. So this is only going to go one way. He's the native, he's top quality, the club wants him as "the" star player in future. Much like Goretska at Bayern, only Berdi is cheaper and better value.

    I think Dier offers the best potential for short term percentage growth (particularly if reduced to 18p post split), of all FI mids.
    I think Saul and Lemar are right up there in above terms, Koke and Rodri slightly less, but I'd still only settle for 100% return on the latter two before selling, 200% on the former 2. 500% on Dier (minimum).

    It isn't as though Dier is an expensive portfolio addition.
    I don't do holds in the thousands and I hold 200+ players.
    So that's a factor for me.
    Dier wins 2 dividends in 3 years and I'm quite happy.
    I also do actually think he's the best DM Southgate has going into EN and Euro 2020.
    That and I haven't dismissed the prior Man Utd link, I'm increasingly thinking about it funnily enough. That should be worth 200% overnight, easy.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.