Best Players to own after SS

  • First of all, I'm a relatively new user, I've been on FI not more than a month now, so forgive me if I say anything stupid.
    I've been hearing a lot about how the market will react post split, and the general consensus is that the big boys such as Pogba/Neymar?Mbappe will benefit the most as a result of the split. And from what I'm hearing it's because they're 4 times cheaper so they're more affordable. Now the small/medium sized portfolios will be able to afford multiple shares in Neymar/Pogba, whereas before they couple only afford 1/2 shares in Pogba.
    I'm also hearing that with time (months-1 year), these shares will start returning to their original values of 15-20pounds because 1- There will be some sort of dividends increase sometime in mid/late 2019 and 2- Football index will expand as a platform, there will be an influx new users in or around the share split because FI will have aggressive marketing campaigns to take full advantage of the share split. As well the late August influx of new users ahead of the new season and 2020 new year.
    This effect is of course fully dependent on the dividend scheme post split. If there's some sort of increase in the dividend scheme, even better for player values. However, if MB are opened up to the entire market, that would be detrimental to the shares as you will no longer benefit as much from owning hundreds in shares in the MB stars (Pogba/Neymar).

  • I think the result of opening up MB is debateable… Pogba/Neymar might win less times but when they do win they will pocket more cash (think FI stated if MB is opened up the prize would be increased to compensate current holdings).

    My personal opinion... on the days Pogba would be star now... he will still be star if it was opened up. Days like yesterday, that were quiet and Lukaku won it just on the basis of saying who he thinks is Utds current best player, are the MB that will be 'up for grabs'.

    RE SS in general, I think I follow the majority consensus - first pool of players that will see increase will be the highest priced players. But then they will be too expensive in comparison to the mid range so top players will slow and money will trickle down. Rinse and repeat until pretty much the whole index has had a rise.

  • @NewUser280785 Good question.

    My hunch, and it is only that, is that the mid priced players are the most secure investments right now. Those currently in the £2-£5 bracket. My reasons for this are:

    • Unpredictability of the big players. We don't know what will happen to MB or PB or even the split for that matter. Whatever happens, it will impact the big players the most. Either the MB stars, or the PB dividend winners. Could go either way.
    • GK. Possibly worth a punt if that's your thing and big opportunities if you are comfortable with the risk. I wouldn't myself. I saw the damage it caused last time with the G&A announcement and new users should be aware of this. Be careful with twitter speculation and even hints from FI themselves.
    • Cheap players. Definitely some gems worth looking at who will be one very good value but a bit of a minefield finding them. Many players are cheap for a reason and that won't change even though they are cheaper.
    • Mid priced players are generally that way because they are good dividend returners or great prospects, but either: Have not found their way to the PL yet, not media friendly, considered 'old' (30+), undiscovered by many or out of form/ injured.

    One thing is for certain, the current structure is going nowhere. There will be tweaks of course, but the players above will retain their value and suddenly appear very cheap. £4 players becoming £1, £2 players becomg 50p.

    For that reason, I'm focusing my attention here to minimise risk of getting burnt more than maximising the potential opportunities. It's a cautious approach I know and I've missed many opportunities because of it, but slow and steady is my strategy especially with this SS.

    However you invest, don't over commit or panic. Most players will bounce back from any drop and the market always recovers.

  • It's an interesting debate and one I've been considering from a logical but also an illogical perspective.

    People already on the Index will surely be depositing and getting as many shares brought before the share split occurs. I can see a real increase over the course of this next month. This could lead to a drop off in deposits/investment once the share split has occurred.

    Logically the big boys will get targeted for the potential dividends win and will continue to rise.

    However, suppose I'm brand new to the market and I decide to throw £100 into the mix. You could argue that Neymar and Pogba at £5 a pop are too expensive to a newbie and there may be more appealing players available at a much cheaper price. For example an Antoine Griezmann at £1.50 a share may hold more appeal.

    The other concern is potentially a lot of people may get frustrated at the lack of movement initially after the share split. I'm sure there are people out there who will be initially looking to sell their extra shares for some actual money and re-investment elsewhere.

    I do think it's important that the Index get a potentially deposit bonus ready to go to keep the market moving.

    It's fair to say nobody actually knows whats going to happen.

  • I bought some of Kane, Aguero and Foden as I think they will look really cheap to any new users and those with a similar spending ability (more like inability) to me.

  • The top players will go up first seen as they become available to the average punter at a reasonable price & it could be a bit of a novelty to buy at the top end of the market for the first time for many.

    Then it's anyone's guess - but like most on here, I think the money will trickle down.

  • One thing that is guaranteed post split is that player pumps will include the line 'He's only {insert post split price here} now! Great value!'

  • I think after the ss, the most expensive will rise,as peiple will want a slice of them whilst affordable.
    The others will be cheap enough for people to flip for IPDs if it stays something like in proportion or an increase in dividends to these.
    All depends how they will balance it out with the spreads etc.
    It's an answer that nobody will know until the 18th March as it all hinges on the new structure of dividends that they are planning?🤷🏻‍♂️

  • I agree with most of the comments on here, the bigger players will increase first, followed by mid market players in a similar cycle to what we saw a few weeks ago. In periods of uncertainty or volatility, most traders will look towards something dependable - Pogba, Neymar, Salah etc... This is where I've invested the majority of my money.
    Once this has settled, and the big players seem expensive, money will flow lower down the market.
    There will also be more volatility on match days in my opinion with traders getting a better return on goalscorers (once G&a is clarified), so be wary of those holds unless you know how to play the game.

  • Are people not concerned that people will look to sell up x amount of shares once they've quadrupled their share holdings in said players?

  • @bigbradwolf not really.
    Say today you own 250 Rashford's, and are happy getting £20 in dividends over the year (hypothetical figures, don't shoot me down for lack of accuracy).
    Post SS you own 1000 Rashford's, but you haven't invested anymore money. Why sell off half your portfolio, and go down to £10 dividends, and lose out on capital growth on 500 Rashford's just because you have a larger number of futures? If someone was going to sell off, they can do it now and get exactly the same amount.
    SS doesn't actually change anything financially for any existing holders, it just makes things easier for new traders to get into bigger players. They won't miss the dividends they aren't getting now, and will accept 1p,2p and 3p as the norm.

  • @bigbradwolf said in Best Players to own after SS:

    Are people not concerned that people will look to sell up x amount of shares once they've quadrupled their share holdings in said players?

    people have been stockpiling in the build up to SS, why would you then sell off before reaping the rewards?

    The reason to stockpile is that guys like Pogba should be a lot more attractive to the new market, so should start heading towards their 'old' value … but this will take months or 1-2 years. That's when those of us in now, who make the profits, might cash out.

    i.e. I have 100 Sancho and for ease sake lets say he is £16 at split so I have 400 @ £4 post split... I will look to sell 200 or 300 shares when his price is nearer £8. If I sell when he is £4 I have gained nothing from the split

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