Crystal Ball Time - Share Split.

  • Well we're finally in March and the announcement from FI is due on the 18th March regarding the future Share Split.
    Does anyone have any idea what we can expect to hear and what knock on effect it should have on the Index.
    Specifically, wondering about dividends, media buzz and also whether GK/Defenders are going to become a more attractive investment.
    All input appreciated.

  • I think it's impact has been over stated, sure top players will seem more affordable to newbies & longer term this will have a positive impact across most players but value will still be largely driven by dividends so until they are raised not much growth impact will be felt (presuming they split at the same rate as prices).

    AIUI FI/Mike had already ruled out a GK category or any major structural changes such as expanding MB outside top 200, largely from a fear of destroying existing value, as they have hopefully learned from the cack handed way that they implemented G&A.

    Like most business's uncertainty isn't great so the sooner they clarify what's happening the better but any changes need to be well communicated & thoughtfully implemented to ensure a smooth transition. The recent "market maintenance" is a good sign that these changes are hopefully being fully tested behind the scenes before launch day.

  • Just to be an arse … the maintenance doesn't seem indicative of being linked to testing SS plans... that would all be done on a Test DB and probably been going on for months (one would hope). When a live system is taken out of action it's usually a simple software update, or a piece of code that has already been thoroughly tested and signed off - and will take effect as soon as the Live system becomes available to users again.

    Hopefully at the same time the SS occurs there is a big marketing push. They need to make it more professional - give a good example of what £100 portfolio could look like and compare the expected returns vs your most common ISA.

  • if the futures are split 2 for 1 i belive the dividends are halved also. it would likely also halve the way buying or selling players affect the price.

  • @Vespasian32 I think the marketing push is the key. Getting FI out there so that people see it as an alternative to that weekly accumulator with the bookmakers. That is the 'market share' FI need to be tapping in to.
    The ammount of footy lads I chat to, who have not even heard of FI is surprising.

  • shares split by 4 and dividends split by 4 initially.

  • I wouldnt be surprised if there are other changes along with the split hence the reason for an announcement one week before the split happens to allow us time to prepare. I dont think changes will be big just little tweaks to increase interest for new users

  • @Black-wolf what they need to do to increase interest is open it up to allow people to sign up from outside the UK

  • @Black-wolf I'm almost certain that the only announcement will be how they are going to round off certain things after the split, there are many figures that will possibly change very very slightly just to simplify things, but they could also keep everything exactly the same. An example would be SS 4 ways, triple media days.. 2p 1.25p 0.5p ... this is where I'd love them to change it, let's say 3p 2p 1p ... but I'm not holding my breath.

  • @Andy-M yeah thats the kind of tweaks i mean and hope for as i dont think fractions of pennies will seem attractive to any new members looking to join

  • @Black-wolf said in Crystal Ball Time - Share Split.:

    @Andy-M yeah thats the kind of tweaks i mean and hope for as i dont think fractions of pennies will seem attractive to any new members looking to join

    But it doesn't work for goals and assists mate, you can't put an assist from 0.25 to 1p and a goal from 0.5 to 2p, even on a single match day with 4 way split... the PB would be 1p position and 0.5p star player, how would these be resolved, the only way i see it possible is if they round star player from 0.5p to 1p and leave the 1p position as it is, doubling all will not happen in March, but could easily happen in say 6-9 months, so damn complicated, bet the FI team have had many sleepless nights over last weeks n months..
    Let's just have faith in whatever they do 💪🏻🚀

  • Think that dividends would definitely need rounding up. Everyone I speak to seems to think it will be a 4 way share split. Looking forward to the 18th to see exactly what is going to happen.

  • I wish FI would update their advert. It’s never changed as far as I’m aware. Something a bit more catchy perhaps near to the share split?!

  • @Andy-M seeing as IPD’s are only a 30 day hold i see no reason that they should need to alter these in the split as you cant sit on these holds for 3 years an collect dividends you only have them for 30 days. If they split the IPD’s they’d be aswell scraping them entirely

  • It's been suggested by several investors that "MB" is the low risk option here.
    I do not agree.

    With an increasing trend towards ownership of MB winners like Paul Pogba - there is in turn an increasing cost to FI.

    It makes sense that FI will be hoping, that coverage given to Pogba by the media dries up. The resulting sales and reinvestment on new media stars, gives FI a trade/commission boost. So a "volatile media" is in the interest of FI.

    My suggestion is that this isn't working for FI. It is far from a sustainable model. It isn't as volatile as they had perhaps hoped. It is predictable, in the case of Pogba it has been so for around six months. The longer this trend continues, the more money is concentrated in media winners, the more costly it becomes for FI.

    So I really do see FI moving away from this model in time. They need to do so in small steps, so as not to destroy the value of portfolios that are concentrated towards MB, but I see no other viable direction for FI to go.
    They simply have to move away from such an easily predictable dividend as more and more investors pile in, in order to manage their own costs and ensure they are sustainable as a business.

    So for me MB is the high risk investment.
    FI could move in this direction within a month, they may use the s/s restructure to do so.
    There could be a lot of tears for those investors with 4/5 figures invested in only 4/5 players.

    To be frank I think these types of investor are a drain on the model, a drain on all of our finances - FI and investor compound growth alike.
    Surely any "football fan" prefers a more diverse and strategic portfolio ? So I would assume they are here to invest money and earn media dividends only - no other reason.

    That is not a sustainable model.
    Opta, PB and thousands of eligible players is the sustainable, volatile and hard to predict model that will take FI forward.

    The days of these media dividends are numbered, or eventually FI will go bust as they will not be able to pay when every investor simply buys more and more Pogba and neglects to invest in any other trade.

    Like it or not....I'm pretty sure that makes sense.

  • @Black-wolf not sure how that would be sustainable, so all of a sudden they'd be paying you 4 x the amount on G&A let's say i had a cheap player for 80p and he scored a goal and i recieved 2p, all of a sudden i have 4 of him and receive 8p which is 10% of his price, does that make sense ??

  • @Andy-M well now he would be 20p so you'd be getting 40% of his price :) happy days

    I agree they will not just leave GnA as it is. Has to move to fractional pennies. Don't think it's that off putting … people looking to invest should have a basic grasp of % rather than thinking of winning penny by penny. It should all be built around the concept of X amount of savings in ISA vs FI.

    So when it comes to adverts they don't need to say 1 share in Pogba this week would have won 0.25p !! They can say you can make annual returns of 30% on Paul Pogba vs 5% in your ISA!

  • I would like to discuss the number of shares that we think will be need to be acquired post share-split to raise the price of a player by 1p. The consensus in previous debate has been that it will rise in line with the split factor, i.e. in a 4-way split scenario it would rise to 400.

    I really think this would be a mistake and they’ll have missed a trick. If that were to happen the split then really is just a way of allowing those with lower budgets to join in ( that’s good of course) and a bit of a psychological trick encouraging more trading. All good. But nothing will have tangibly changed. If we simply need to buy 400 at one pound as opposed to 100 at 4 pounds to impact the price we haven’t gone anywhere and may be a backward step.

    I like buying 100 shares and seeing the price tick up. It’s like being on the racecourse and giving the bookie 50 sovs to win and seeing him immediately change the price on his board. I love that knowing that I did it.! And on FI it’s the upward price movements that gets everybody going and encourages more investment and more buying and selling activity which is good for FI.

    So having cut a short story long I really hope they leave it and that would be good news all round. What do you say boys and girls?

  • Then a montage of us mugs telling our stories, like the "I'm doing my part" approach in Starship Troopers... smiling faces "I bought Pogba at £11 and I've doubled down"

    slowly fade

    Kick in - Hot Chocolate - Everyone's a winner baby...

  • @Le-Blanc The million dollar question... in my head it has to stay at 100. If it moves to 400 I will be revisiting my strategy for withdrawal to make it sooner.

    I can see the split having some impact on growth... but we are sweeping the sea bed for bottom feeders who didnt previously invest because they couldnt afford a worthwhile port. So we will be picking up small time traders buying shares in 5/10 a pop.

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