Advice for a new user
New to the Index and wanted to get some advice on something.
Recently I bought a few futures in James Rodriguez. He was high up on the buzz all day pretty much and finished the day second to Lukaku.
I thought that would be good news, but I quickly found that during the last two days his stock has plummeted. At it's worst it was -79p and I had lost something like a fiver on the few futures that I had.
Looking to get some advice on why that happened so I can know the reasons and attempt to avoid it in the future.
Any help is appreciated.
Yes the expectation around him coming to the Premier League where traditionally buzz wins (and future values) have been higher drove him value up - as soon as he went to Bayern the floor fell out so to speak - very few Bundesliga players regardless of how good they are hold value for long. If Aubameyang does not go to Chelsea, he will plummet too you watch! (personally REALLY hoping its Morata over Aubameyang or Belotti but that's a different story!)
James was only high because there was a chance he would come to the prem, in which case he would have risen to £4+ because prem players get more media buzz. So as soon as that chance was diminished, his value plummeted. High risk but high reward potentally.
If your new to this id avoid putting too much into Transfer rumours, things change everyday and as we've seen with James the media doesn't really know what's going on - far too easy to get burnt.
With opta coming in (dividends based on performance) and people still focused on transfer rumours, its a good time to buy people that are strong performers as they should all increase the nearer we get to the season. I would recommend looking at whoscored.com and squawka to get an idea of who the good performers are statistically (although the FI system is slightly different. My tip is defenders as there are much fewer sharing the overall prize pool.
Yep most of the media is UK based which means generally players in the premier league will get more news and higher buzz so more dividends. Signing for Bayern has killed his future media buzz potential so killed his value. To make matters worse, he is a midfielder which is the most congested position so has neglible chance of being profitable in the performance buzz (I think a lot of people are missing this and the value of midfielders generally will drop once the season starts). Despite the crash, James is still heavily over-valued.
You need to decide what you are aiming for. If its performance buzz then defenders are the best targets. Alternatively, you could go for low valued strikers that you think will be linked with Premier League teams in the future - this is more of a gamble but generally everyone is linked sooner or later.
Alternatively, you can target proven buzz players who are likely to be in the media anyway - check Footy Index Scout which has a record of who has won the buzz previously in-season but try and avoid players who could leave the Premier League. Someone like Hazard is a gamble because if he did leave for Madrid his value would crash. Be wary of people saying "Player X will kill the performance buzz because he scores 30 goals" yeah he might score 30 goals but there are 70 other strikers to compete with most of which are goalscorers.