Share Split Winners?



  • Unless you've been sleeping under a rock for the past 2 or 3 months you know full well there's another SS on the horizon, but who are the most likely to benefit from this?

    Mathematically it "should" be business as usual HOWEVER the truth is the current dividend structure simply doesn't lend itself to a neat division whatever number you use, unless you're happy to mess around with decimals which in my opinion looks shoddy.

    In turn, the big AC has stated that they will be as generous as they can be when re-evaluating the new payout structure, so we know for certain (well 99%) that there will be changes and the number of maintenance windows being used would back that up.

    So, if you believe anything you read you'll probably be as convinced as I am that a War Chest is being held back to react to the new dividends when they are announced on Monday the 18th March. It's important to note, if you're new to the platform, that announcements move the market even if the implementation is days or weeks away.

    Which means that (unless every dividend category is increased by the same %, which is highly unlikely) there will be certain types of players that will rocket when the Market is reopened (I think I've read 2 hours after the announcement - but I might have dreamt that one!).

    So the question is who and why!

    To answer this you should try and put yourself in FI's shoes, without bragging I managed to do this during the last announcement and made 8k from second guessing that FI would introduce some value to Goalkeepers, which turned out to be the Clean Sheet Dividend.

    So what do FI really want? If we take the Spread out of the conversation for a moment, we're left with their lifeblood - 2% commission (along with Happy Customers, which most of us are with such a brilliant concept!). In this sense nothing makes them (and us if we get it right) more money than mass volatility. "Will he, won't he" transfer news and injuries are a great source of this but the new mechanism of in-play dividends (IPD) stimulates trading rather than sitting on a hold for 3 years waiting for the divs to drip in so my guess would be that; FI, without detriment to their core principles of PB and MB, will encourage more trading in this area than any other.

    Now take into consideration the amount of money invested in Media Cash Cow's like Pogba and Neymar, making changes that would significantly weaken the value of the top players would no doubt cause uproar with traders who have majorly invested in them based on existing dividends, so I firmly believe that FI will also increase the dividends available in this area too but not quite as much.

    The water here get's slightly mirky if you read into Mike Bohan's tweet asking whether Media should be opened up to the Squad! Plus, during testing there seems to be a suggestion that Media may also become tiered during Match Days too. Put simply, Pogba would theoretically be worth even more as it's highly likely that he'd make the top 3 on a ridiculous basis.

    Where does this leave PB?, my favourite mechanic on the platform (and I'm sure for many others too). Well it can't be neglected that's for sure as it would alienate a huge chunk of their customer base so I suspect they have plans to improve this area here too.

    Reading the above probably suggests that "everyone's a winner" and we all know there must be losers as reserved war chests will not be the only source of investment. A huge amount of money will also be moved from one type to another, we're not all millionaires with spare cash to burn.

    After writing all of the above I won't finish off without making my own predictions and I'm being honest in saying I haven't loaded up on certain players prior to writing this (certainly not 10k splashed on keepers like last time.)

    I think the losers will be the youth and that doesn't actually mean they'll crash, just that I don't think they'll benefit from a rise driven by the announcement (unless FI do something right outside of the box).

    The big winners? in the main I think it'll be very spread out BUT I think that the area that made me a fortune last time could strike twice. We saw that Alisson, when in the top 200, was a media whore, the huge transfer fee helped but GK heroics certainly grab headlines. So IF IF IF they do open it up to the Squad then I think some well known keepers could be really valuable. If they increase the CS payments as part of the IPD then we could see them getting even more value.

    That's my 2 pence, I'm not loaded up on them like before and just an opinion. It's gonna be a very interesting day regardless!



  • out of interest why havent you 'loaded up' as you said you made £8k last time so why wouldnt you try and do the same?



  • I don't think they will do anything with PB unless they open up another league like Holland or Portugal. Why would they? 🤔

    If they open up MB to all, rather than just the top 200, then I would expect an yield increase as Mike B himself indicated in his poll. This would be par for the course. 👍

    Be doing this, obviously a few more players outside the top 200 will become quite more desirable. Some keepers etc.

    Other than this & announcing what split the factor will be by I don't envision any more drastic changes.

    Triple media of matchday's perhaps... 😐



  • Has there been anything about what time the announcement will be on Monday yet ? Can’t see anything on Twitter.



  • @Indexical I've seen 6pm somewhere... (I think!)



  • Does anyone actually think they will have time to react to any substantial market changes post split anyhow? 🤔

    For me, the 2 hour break will just give people time to re-program their bots to target those who have become valuable with the rule changes.

    It will be like the IPOs where you sit & refresh hoping to get a 90p share but 1 second after they come on the market they are already £2.50.

    I think we will see something very similar.

    I'd prefer a 5 minutes suspension at a set time so ordinary people with the quickest minds can benefit and not computer programmers





  • In reality, there won't be much focus on goalkeepers which I think is why there hasn't been the same load up. If Media is opening up, there may be a few that get more dividends - De Gea and Lloris will be there for transfers, Ederson and Allison as players who have shored up at the back and potentially all 4 could pull off great saves in the Champions League. That being said, it's still not going to cause a huge change, maybe just a small increase.
    I still think the biggest winners will be the big hitters at first, as Pogba, Neymar, Sancho, Salah etc will be more accessible to new players, and therefore the new money coming in for a period of time. Nothing will change for those of us who are already here in that respect.
    The only thing that could potentially happen to PB would be other stats being included in the scoring. I think it comes from opta (correct me if I'm wrong) but thats an independant source, and there are far more variables recorded than are in the current scoring. For example, dribbling could be scored on FI better, making wingers far better prospects.
    Other than that I can't see too much changing, except the values being rounded up instead of decimals.



  • I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some manipulated drops in some players before this coming Monday to get others to sell up. Then come next week, the big rise comes for some of these select players and the manipulators make the biggest gains. No doubt about it there will be some seismic price changes very soon and the average investor won’t be the winner unless they are very smart or lucky.



  • They will up PB for the new season in July I reckon.



  • @MrWh1te exactly like that! 👍



  • @Ericali yep the bots will be the winners. Sadly FI haven't done much (anything?) to address this issue. It could ultimately drive many genuine traders away from the platform, as has happened with online poker.



  • @Hotspur for me, if you want to benefit you have to invest pre-announcement & try & anticipate what changes will happen.

    It's the only way to compete & gain an edge. But of course - it's a gamble, but an educated gamble



  • I’ve done the same put my money in what I hope is going to happen and see where I go can only blame myself if it all goes up in flames😂😂



  • @TeamGB This is quite a good point actually, it was only a few weeks ago that several players dropped 20 or 30p for a day and then sprung back up as if nothing had happened. There has been a gradual decline of Pogba, Sancho and a few others in the last few days too.
    If that happens though it gives people like me chance to top up at the lower prices this time rather than worrying that a load of money was being taken out the index!



  • @Ericali agreed and have done so. I agree with the OP that IPDs are very likely to get a boost. As such I've invested in some cheap strikers (eg Vardy, Giroud) and goalkeepers (Lloris, Alisson, De Gea).



  • @NewUser297399
    I have loaded up but on a much smaller scale. The reason being that more people are switched on to the GK potential than last time plus I was quite late seeing the clues that Media could well be opening up the squad. So going massive on players that have already risen a bit carries more risk than last time where my liability was nothing being offset by a 10% bonus.
    On top of that I bought every keeper going last time and if you take an example of Maignan, he keeps clean sheets for fun but he ain't winning Media any time soon.
    I've bought a shit load of Heaton cos I think he'll be England number 1 but not so many Lloris n Leno.
    No-one knows anything for sure but it's worth bearing in mind.



  • @Agatello

    Great post as usual and load of sense throughout

    I have personally laid my chips on the table early and now nervously awaiting for Monday 🤞



  • @Agatello said in Share Split Winners?:

    Unless you've been sleeping under a rock for the past 2 or 3 months you know full well there's another SS on the horizon, but who are the most likely to benefit from this?

    Mathematically it "should" be business as usual HOWEVER the truth is the current dividend structure simply doesn't lend itself to a neat division whatever number you use, unless you're happy to mess around with decimals which in my opinion looks shoddy.

    In turn, the big AC has stated that they will be as generous as they can be when re-evaluating the new payout structure, so we know for certain (well 99%) that there will be changes and the number of maintenance windows being used would back that up.

    So, if you believe anything you read you'll probably be as convinced as I am that a War Chest is being held back to react to the new dividends when they are announced on Monday the 18th March. It's important to note, if you're new to the platform, that announcements move the market even if the implementation is days or weeks away.

    Which means that (unless every dividend category is increased by the same %, which is highly unlikely) there will be certain types of players that will rocket when the Market is reopened (I think I've read 2 hours after the announcement - but I might have dreamt that one!).

    So the question is who and why!

    To answer this you should try and put yourself in FI's shoes, without bragging I managed to do this during the last announcement and made 8k from second guessing that FI would introduce some value to Goalkeepers, which turned out to be the Clean Sheet Dividend.

    So what do FI really want? If we take the Spread out of the conversation for a moment, we're left with their lifeblood - 2% commission (along with Happy Customers, which most of us are with such a brilliant concept!). In this sense nothing makes them (and us if we get it right) more money than mass volatility. "Will he, won't he" transfer news and injuries are a great source of this but the new mechanism of in-play dividends (IPD) stimulates trading rather than sitting on a hold for 3 years waiting for the divs to drip in so my guess would be that; FI, without detriment to their core principles of PB and MB, will encourage more trading in this area than any other.

    Now take into consideration the amount of money invested in Media Cash Cow's like Pogba and Neymar, making changes that would significantly weaken the value of the top players would no doubt cause uproar with traders who have majorly invested in them based on existing dividends, so I firmly believe that FI will also increase the dividends available in this area too but not quite as much.

    The water here get's slightly mirky if you read into Mike Bohan's tweet asking whether Media should be opened up to the Squad! Plus, during testing there seems to be a suggestion that Media may also become tiered during Match Days too. Put simply, Pogba would theoretically be worth even more as it's highly likely that he'd make the top 3 on a ridiculous basis.

    Where does this leave PB?, my favourite mechanic on the platform (and I'm sure for many others too). Well it can't be neglected that's for sure as it would alienate a huge chunk of their customer base so I suspect they have plans to improve this area here too.

    Reading the above probably suggests that "everyone's a winner" and we all know there must be losers as reserved war chests will not be the only source of investment. A huge amount of money will also be moved from one type to another, we're not all millionaires with spare cash to burn.

    After writing all of the above I won't finish off without making my own predictions and I'm being honest in saying I haven't loaded up on certain players prior to writing this (certainly not 10k splashed on keepers like last time.)

    I think the losers will be the youth and that doesn't actually mean they'll crash, just that I don't think they'll benefit from a rise driven by the announcement (unless FI do something right outside of the box).

    The big winners? in the main I think it'll be very spread out BUT I think that the area that made me a fortune last time could strike twice. We saw that Alisson, when in the top 200, was a media whore, the huge transfer fee helped but GK heroics certainly grab headlines. So IF IF IF they do open it up to the Squad then I think some well known keepers could be really valuable. If they increase the CS payments as part of the IPD then we could see them getting even more value.

    That's my 2 pence, I'm not loaded up on them like before and just an opinion. It's gonna be a very interesting day regardless!



  • @Agatello

    A well thought out post and like you I think out of MB, PB and IPD it is MB and IPD that are most likely to benefit from the SS announcement

    In addition, I think there's a good chance Euro 20 qualifiers (which start a couple of days after the SS announcement) will be made IPD eligible

    I also think FI will do something to address a looming summer recess where, if nothing changes, MB will be the only divis available for 3 months. How? Well I think some or all of the Nations League, Copa America and African Cup of Nations finals could be made IPD eligible along with potentially the Women's World Cup

    As to how best to profit ffrom any potential changes my view is that it ideally traders should be investing now ahead of any fastest finger frenzies at 7:30pm on Monday. But of course we don't know which asset classes are going to benefit. Therefore the best plan is to diversify and pick up a spread of the best assets in each asset class. And by best assets I mean either the most obvious choices (cos that's where knee jerk traders put their money first in a fastest finger frenzy) or the best value choices (cos that's where the smart money goes)

    Monday should be fun... and it will be interesting to re-visit this thread to see who got their predictions right... including whether the most profitable strategy turns out to be investing now or sitting on a cash balance and waiting for the FFF...

    Good luck all, let's hope FI are kind... :-)


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