FI Investors Consortium - Kylian Mbappe
*Consortium - A consortium is an association of two or more individuals, companies, organizations or governments with the objective of participating in a common activity or pooling their resources for achieving a common goal.
The aim of this thread will be simple. To pool our resources, knowledge and opinion, for the purpose of setting valuations on all individual players listed.
All are welcome to participate in this process.
Players will be considered individually, with investors offering projected figures for future IPD, MB and PB potential.
In doing so each of us will arrive at a dividend based value for each player. However we will also derive an "average" market value for each player, taken from our combined valuations and broken down accordingly.
One simple rule to make things easier for all participating.
Each investor is allowed only a single comment.
However this comment may be edited without limit, other investors may be tagged and later removed if any participant has specific questions/comments/responses for others.
A simple starting point would be to copy/paste my own starting template (as your initial comment), then edit as we proceed...
Real World Value -
Projected 30 Day IPD 's -
Projected Lifetime MB -
Projected Lifetime PB -
FI Market Value -
*All projections/valuations to be offered on the basis of "post-split" pricing and dividend structure.
Case 1 - Kylian Mbappe (Forward), Fance/PSG.
Real World Value - 180m (source - https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/ )
Projected 30 Day IPD 's - 8p (£4.00)
Projected Lifetime MB - £3.75 (25p x 15)
Projected Lifetime PB - £3.75 (25p x 15)
FI Market Value - £11.50
Firstly, I have chosen Mbappe solely on the basis that he is the highest valued player listed by the source, which updates around every three months and a fair reflection on real world values. The source derives it's valuations in much the same we as we would do here, through crowd sourced participation. Notable the source is also used by media and pundits as their common reference point.
We'll then work downwards, but for now focus the comments on Kylian Mbappe.
IPD's, using FI's performance chart, looking at KM's total goals, assists and number of matches played I have arrived at an 8p projection.
Please offer your own projections for his potential 30 day IPD return. Do so on the basis that it's a good month, say 3 easy home games and two tricky away games, games you would expect him to be starting in each.
That is when he will become an attractive purchase for those seeking IPD's.
When you arrive at a projected figure for a 30 day return - It should be the figure that makes it hard to choose higher or lower, try to be honest and realistic.
Once you have this figure, in my case 8p. Then work out the price of the player, on the basis that he would cost that same figure to flip - 8p.
This would make his IPD based value = £4.00
MB - I've thrown out a guess and I think around 25p a year in MB is a reasonable expectation for this player, However this is a youngster with years ahead of him. So take you're annual projection for MB and multiply that by 15 (taking him up to 35yo). Please offer your own annual projection for MB wins and multiply that by 15 to arrive at your own MB value.
PB - As above. Once again I've thrown out an approximate guess, a reasonable projection, that I expect KM to win around 25p a year in PB. Once again taking that projection and multiplying by 15, to arrive at a lifetime PB projection.
Once again, decide how much PB you tink Mbappe is likely to win over a year, multiply by 15, to project your own lifetime PB value.
Then simply add all three figures together, IPD, MB and PB. Then you have your projected value for the player.
I will take all valuations, add them up, divide them accordingly and "we" will have an average valuation.
Two figures to work with, our own, as well as the groups average, which might prompt a rethink on our part as individuals, for the better I hope.
Any questions - Just tag me in your comment and I'll tag, respond through my own, likewise when discussing with other participants in the consortium.
@Valhalla - I'm inclined to agree with what you've said about PB and MB in terms of lifetime projections.
However the measure needs to finish at a particular price - The players true value price.
Simply using 12 month projections, gives a low figure, too low to be considered an overall price. If that makes sense.
I'm more than open to ideas. How best to derive an overall price, what system, data or projections would be most appropriate.
I'm big on real world values, I do think there's a vested interest in seeing high value investments succede, but not from us here - from the clubs who own them. That for me is always relevant. Still though, this is me conceding there are other factors that should dictate a players FI value. This is also me trying to better understand them. So I'd welcome expertise from investors who chase PB, MB or IPD's. They all have aspects that play a part in value.
I hope together we can find a better system of deriving that value, than each of us may do as individuals.
Where do you find the time to post such long posts consistently ? 😀
I think for PB and MB lifetime is too long and intangible with so many factors that could come to bear- injuries, dividend changes etc
Yearly expected dividends would be clearer:
And I can’t help thinking real world value is irrelevant? Clubs play stupid money sometimes. Andy Carrol was a record breaking transfer once....
Dont really understand the valuation, but I have doubt on the use of real-world value. How can you work it out for Kante and Pogba?
- Kante: Transfermarkt value 90M, current FI value @£1.51
- Pogba: Transfermarkt value 81M; current FI value @£22.75
You are correct.
There is no reason to think that Kante and his like will ever equal their real world value.
Also it is perfectly understandable (to those familiar with the index) why Pogba and his like are valued higher than said rwv.
I maintain only two points in this regard :
1 - I think it is most healthy and sustainable, that when FI moves the goalposts...it does so in ways that decrease reliance on index familiarity - in terms of understanding player values.
That I think benefits us all, I think we get more takers, less insecurity from potential new investors. Though we've no reason whatsoever to think FI will move even remotely in that direction.
To me it makes sense, to them it may not, but aren't we all aware and conscious of that, when setting our own values ?
Were there collaboration RWV would have zero affect on the players derived FI value - none. It simply acts as a less volatile baseline than FI values that change daily. It isn't my source. It's the one most commonly referenced by media.
Including Jim White on TS.
2 - This does have relevance to FI player valuations, though we should all understand it is a comparatively small variable.
Players valued in the real world - the like of Kante are real world investments, particularly for the wealthy clubs that own that "own" them.
There are significant factors this can influence.
I would offer a player like Kingsley Coman as an example. If this were not a player with such high levels of potential, say a mid table average player - he can be discarded by the club at a small loss, typically playing at a lower level trying to regain fitness (see Jack Wilshere). However the higher the players real world value, the more vested interests there are in seeing the player return a real world ROI.
That is a relevant variable.
Though I admit it is far less significant than either potential as a short term IPD investment, or a longer term PB/MB investment.
If Kante and Pogba justifiably had a similar FI value....
Then Bob Mills would get it !
That's my humble opinion.
Right....If anyone would like to offer dividend projections for Kylian Mbappe at post split pricing ?
In doing so changing the consortium suggested FI value, please feel free to do so.
1 - IPD (prior to a nice fixture run)
2 - MB (Lifetime for now)
3 - PB (Lifetime for now)
I'll factor those projections into the consortium valuation.
Offsetting them against my own projections, as well as that of others to create an average.
We can discuss shorter MB/PB projections as being more accurate.
However that gives us an added complexity, as we would also need to discuss the factor of age in terms of appreciation and likely sale price at the end of holding period.
Going to dead the thread soon.
Run with 1/1 projections on the Mbappe value and move on to Neymar and co.
One a day isn't ideal. I'd rather three or four to get this done in a year.
But these higher priced big investments do need to be a priority.
I could have bloody disregarded an external source and just started with my own most expensive investment !!!
Oh shit. They're the same guy.
Sorry I would get involved but I don't understand any of it ;p
Don't be sorry - that's my fault.
The next post is going to simplify things a great deal.
That's a promise.
@C-Arroyo here's hoping.. .🤞
think I maybe tried and failed.
If it needs debating, let's stick to this thread
I think mbappe value is around £10
He’s ipd is around 8p like you said
The media is lower tho, even with the new price increases I can’t see him winning it more then 2 times a year (with Neymar there and PSG’s woeful champions league record)
The pb can be very high tho again if neymar leaves he will be top boy, I think he may stay a while at PSG and be the big fish
He’s the only top 10 (for now) I haven’t and won’t invest in yet
Hope this was helpful 🤷♂️
It helps me, but maybe not others.
You agree on the 8p (assuming you mean post split), so that puts his IPD based value alone at £4+ (following the split.
So I'm not concerned personally about "losing" too much money.
However based on my projections his value has been set higher to reflect his MB/PB potential as a long term hold...putting his value above £4 after the split.
So I'm left wondering if I've set "my" price too high, but concluding you can't expect to get Mbappe on the cheap 3 years from now. I'll hold so I have the whole purchase price at my disposal at that time.
I plan on holding for a decade and the first year has been a good one, his dividend returns are only going to improve.
I can only change the consortium value on Mbappe if you want to offer 12 month projections on his MB and PB. Then I will offset them against my own and produce a new price (on the other consortium thread).
That could help others in deciding based on our differing projections for MB (and possibly PB).
He's a minimum £4 after the split though, without any MB and PB. Flippers can't be getting him stupid cheap.