FI Investors Consortium



  • Guidelines for participation :

    Explanatory ;

    Player X

    30 day IPD projection ; _____
    His projected figure will be considered his "flip price". It will be multiplied by 50 to generate a buy price at which he would cost the same amount in commission to later sell.
    He will then essentially become a fair higher/lower "bet" for any promising 30 day fixture period at that derived price.

    12 months MB projection ; _____
    12 months PB projection ; _____
    These projections will be added together, then multiplied by the number of year remaining before the player reaches 35 years old. This will essentially create a projected lifetime potential value for MB and PB combined. Younger players may still be appreciating to meet this value, however older players could be expected to depreciate from this immediately following purchase.

    Player X now has two valuations
    (a) IPD based value.
    (b) MB/PB value.

    It then becomes evident as to which category any player falls under. Short term flip or Long term hold.
    By using the highest of the two figures (a) or (b), to not only derive his FI value, but further to help guide decisions in regard to holding long term, or trading to generate in play dividends.


    "Ok sounds interesting....How can I contribute ?"

    Simply copy and paste the following :

    Player Name :
    30 day IPD projection :
    12 month MB projection :
    12 month PB projection :

    Copy paste the above as a comment, fill in your own projection figures for IPD, PB and MB.
    Follow that with any notes/comments you like.
    Those projections will then be calculated and the consortium price/value for that player will change accordingly.


    Current consortium valuations :
    Numbers in brackets, indicate number of volunteers participating with projections that helped derive to the figure.

    *Pre-Split prices

    Kylian Mbappe (1) - £18.00 (Hold)
    Neymar (1) £22.80 (Sell)
    Leo Messi (1) £16.80 (Sell)
    Harry Kane (1) - £13.50 (Hold)
    Mohamed Salah (1) £12.15 (Sell)
    Kevin De Bruyne (1) £6.00 (Sell)
    Eden Hazard (1) 13.65 (Sell)
    Antoine Griezmann (1) £6.30 (Sell)
    Ousmane Dembele (1) £8.40 (Hold)
    Raheem Sterling (1) £13.20 (Hold)



  • *All post split

    Player Name : Mbappe
    30 day IPD projection : 10p
    12 month MB projection : 15p
    12 month PB projection : 25p

    Player Name : Neymar
    30 day IPD projection : 12p
    12 month MB projection : 55p
    12 month PB projection : 40p

    Player Name : Leo Messi
    30 day IPD projection : 10p
    12 month MB projection : 75p
    12 month PB projection : 40p

    Player Name : Harry Kane
    30 day IPD projection : 8p
    12 month MB projection : 40p
    12 month PB projection : 5p

    Player Name : Mohamed Salah
    30 day IPD projection : 8p
    12 month MB projection : 25p
    12 month PB projection : 20p

    Player Name : Kevin De Bruyne
    30 day IPD projection : 4p
    12 month MB projection : 15p
    12 month PB projection : 10p

    Player Name : Eden Hazard
    30 day IPD projection : 8p
    12 month MB projection : 40p
    12 month PB projection : 25p

    Player Name : Antoine Griezmann
    30 day IPD projection : 4p
    12 month MB projection : 15p
    12 month PB projection : 15p

    Player Name : Ousmane Dembele
    30 day IPD projection : 5p
    12 month MB projection : 10p
    12 month PB projection : 10p

    Player Name : Raheem Sterling
    30 day IPD projection : 8p
    12 month MB projection : 30p
    12 month PB projection : 10p



  • @C-Arroyo This is a really interesting potential discussion, to look at the players on a pure value basis. Joined mid January and been reading posts with interest, but this has made me want to post. Couple of questions.

    Firstly, Why is Neymar a sell? He is 23.44 now so £7.81 post split. Based on your numbers above you have post split in the second post: IPD value - £6, 8 years of MB is £4.40, 8 years of PB is £3.2. Total value = £13.60. So surely post split he has potentially to grow by 70+% a share? I haven't looked at the rest, want to make sure I have your reasoning right or wrong first off.

    Secondly, by looking at the lifetime is this going undervalue the players as it ignores future dividend increases. Would be interesting too know how much dividends have been increased (including IPDs, PB etc) in the last 3 years. If they rise 20% every couple of years, then you could be potentially undervaluing the long term value of the player.

    Be interesting to hear your thoughts on this. Keep up the good work. Cheers



  • @C-Arroyo said in FI Investors Consortium:

    Current consortium valuations :
    Numbers in brackets, indicate number of volunteers participating with projections that helped derive to the figure.
    *Pre-Split prices
    Kylian Mbappe (1) - £18.00 (Hold)
    Neymar (1) £22.80 (Sell)
    Leo Messi (1) £16.80 (Sell)
    Harry Kane (1) - £13.50 (Hold)
    Mohamed Salah (1) £12.15 (Sell)
    Kevin De Bruyne (1) £6.00 (Sell)
    Eden Hazard (1) 13.65 (Sell)
    Antoine Griezmann (1) £6.30 (Sell)
    Ousmane Dembele (1) £8.40 (Hold)
    Raheem Sterling (1) £13.20 (Hold)

    Based on the examples above this thread is a total waste of time and effort. Why would you sell Salah at £12.15 when he is at the bottom of a dip and has already started to rise? It is total bollocks.



  • @Zidave said in FI Investors Consortium:

    @C-Arroyo said in FI Investors Consortium:

    Current consortium valuations :
    Numbers in brackets, indicate number of volunteers participating with projections that helped derive to the figure.
    *Pre-Split prices
    Kylian Mbappe (1) - £18.00 (Hold)
    Neymar (1) £22.80 (Sell)
    Leo Messi (1) £16.80 (Sell)
    Harry Kane (1) - £13.50 (Hold)
    Mohamed Salah (1) £12.15 (Sell)
    Kevin De Bruyne (1) £6.00 (Sell)
    Eden Hazard (1) 13.65 (Sell)
    Antoine Griezmann (1) £6.30 (Sell)
    Ousmane Dembele (1) £8.40 (Hold)
    Raheem Sterling (1) £13.20 (Hold)

    Based on the examples above this thread is a total waste of time and effort. Why would you sell Salah at £12.15 when he is at the bottom of a dip and has already started to rise? It is total bollocks.

    I wouldn't know.... Got half way down the post & gave up reading



  • @Zidave
    I think @C-Arroyo is trying to show someone’s true value based on what dividends they could earn you..
    Takes out ‘emotion’ from the calculation, such as ‘they are a great player’.. Liverpool winning the league won’t directly win any Salah dividends. True there will be MB dividends but they are likely to go to whoever scores the crucial goal to decide the league, so one of a number of players



  • @Zidave You are looking at 2 different types of investing.

    Value investing - is looking for players who are currently trading below their long term instrinsic value. I.e. Based on the dividends he will win Kane is worth £20, therefore he is worth buying at £13.50

    Momentum investing - is looking for players who are currently favoured by the market. I.e. Young English players are rising generally at the minute so they are worth investing in whilst they are popular.

    You should be considering both when buying players. So if the momentum is with Salah then it is worth buying, even if he is no longer a value buy. But having a thread that considers the underlying value element of a player surely is worth a discussion.



  • I don't know what @C-Arroyo is doing.....

    Last I heard, he was playing his own individual game rather than Football Index & hoping the whole platform adapted.



  • @Kipper - thanks but I posted in here the other day about money ball style investing as I have spent my week off looking at trends and stats. I have only watched the England game all week. I have looked at historic yields, on-season vs off season, which clubs generate MB in transfer windows, which player contracts have 2 years or less to run who are more likely to move, upcoming single match days due to enhanced dividends in that category and treble payouts for the remaining European games so I think I have all bases covered.

    I changed my strategy in January to look at MB players for the upcoming summer months too and that is now paying dividends (literlayy)

    I think the theory has merits but please don't defend publishing these players as sells in the current market as I am being kind in describing this as bollocks.

    The market is currently based on emotion and greed. The rises in Greenwood and Foden confirm that. Both great prospects but would your rather have Foden over de Bruyne, Griezmann and Fekir? Or Greenwood over Coutinho, Aguero or Jesus?

    The market will eventually move to this model as the new money slows done and dividends have to increase to retain balances.

    There would be value in this post if looking at the lower mid priced players who generate returns such as Thauvin or Thorgan Hazard.



  • @Ericali - constantly clogging up the forum replying to himself. And why use 2 paragraphs when 58 will do.



  • @Zidave said in FI Investors Consortium:

    @Kipper - thanks but I posted in here the other day about money ball style investing as I have spent my week off looking at trends and stats. I have only watched the England game all week. I have looked at historic yields, on-season vs off season, which clubs generate MB in transfer windows, which player contracts have 2 years or less to run who are more likely to move, upcoming single match days due to enhanced dividends in that category and treble payouts for the remaining European games so I think I have all bases covered.

    I changed my strategy in January to look at MB players for the upcoming summer months too and that is now paying dividends (literlayy)

    I think the theory has merits but please don't defend publishing these players as sells in the current market as I am being kind in describing this as bollocks.

    The market is currently based on emotion and greed. The rises in Greenwood and Foden confirm that. Both great prospects but would your rather have Foden over de Bruyne, Griezmann and Fekir? Or Greenwood over Coutinho, Aguero or Jesus?

    The market will eventually move to this model as the new money slows done and dividends have to increase to retain balances.

    There would be value in this post if looking at the lower mid priced players who generate returns such as Thauvin or Thorgan Hazard.

    Top of my research is Hofman with a tastey yield. But players like him getting ignored at the moment.



  • Now I'm not sure I quite agree with my own opinion yet but there are a few things I'm not sure I love about this consortium.

    • Kindof sucks the fun out of it a little bit. It becomes a game of numbers not players.

    • I know we are all working together on this forum to help each other most of the time but this maybe takes it a little far. A whole load of people could start listening to your advice and following every move. You give a whole bunch of people knowledge they don't necessarily deserve they come on here see salah is a sell and think oh ok sell salah and im gonna copy all this guys moves he knows what he's doing. At the end of the day we are working against each other and your giving a golden ticket to newuser457903 and his friends.

    • Your gonna piss a whole load of people off as well when your reccomending sell and they own that player

    • This encourages people to play against the index and not the trader. I personally like riding the waves of excitement that moise Kean and Sancho and CHO brings and i like jumping off before the bubble bursts. When we have so many new users coming on this is the best way to play it. Play the man not the cards, play the trader not the index.

    Now don't get me wrong when the market levels out and prices stagnate thats when this stuff becomes important and if we could do something like this in a private group I'd be well up for helping out but at the moment tho i don't like the amount of influence it could have.



  • @Westy - is that IPD?



  • @Zidave I wasn't defending the suggestion that Salah is a sell at all. I have Salah, Neymar, Greizeman etc who are all stated as sells and will continue to hold them. This is just one element of a strategy which I think is worth keeping in mind, for when players get so far above or below their base values, it is worth considering at what point you might want to sell / buy would be. That is all I think is trying to be shown.

    You are right though I think - the best use is looking at the lower mid price players, where there is probably less sentiment involved currently.



  • @Zidave no just from Pb divs this year 19.05%



  • @Westy - at his current price?



  • @Kipper

    It's a case of taking the highest of two figures :
    (a) - The IPD potential
    (b) - The MB/PB potential
    The higher of the two figures is where the player should in theory stagnate in price.



  • @Ericali

    Why bother starting to read posts ?
    By your own admission you never finish reading them.

    You typically follow that with a simple but less than constructive criticism.

    Around a month ago...when I announced I had sacrificed 20% of my annual profits, in a pre-split dump (in order to refresh my portfolio), you suggested I should perhaps leave the index. Suggesting you were concerned (sincere I'm sure).

    There is no need for you to be concerned Eric. I have now recovered that 20% in full.
    I have also today sold every one of my holds.....as this thread helped me to understand a painful reality.



  • @Zidave

    Using one "comment" for each addition to my workspace above last night (an edit each 10 mins or so), actually avoided any thread pumping or clogging up of the forum.

    I choose to do that out of consideration, contrary to your comment.
    Begs the question why I should bother.



  • @Westy

    I realized this around two hours into the task....at which point I put all of my holds up for sale.


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