Strategies and Share Split



  • With the split nearly upon us how do you guys see the market reacting. For what it's worth IMO I feel an increase initially on those that are MP and PB prominent with a possible flatline until the next announcement mid April. I have positioned my portfolio such that my shares are fairly evenly spread over MB,PB, transfer prospects and Youngsters causing a stir. My portfolio strategy is to try and cover those generating regular dividends with potential short term risers while not taking a big hit from a serious injury to a Messi say god forbid. I sell 50% of a players shares for my chosen % profit and reinvest. Conversely placing to sell 50% of a players shares to market if a player loses 30% of his purchase value. Anyway that's my strategy but it is by no means proven as after a year of studying I have only recently finalised and implemented it so time will tell.



  • SEQUENCE OF EVENTS

    • Pre share-split rumours
    • Hints about the share split
    • Announcement about share split announcement
    • Actual share split announcement
    • Share split takes place

    I suspect, during the first three parts of the sequence, the big fish moved their money in to Pogba and Messi, etc. Then in the last two parts, we've seen the smaller fish make those same moves.

    My worry, is that some of the big fish will pull out on the day of (or day after) the share split. If they do, it could cause wide spread panic as people dash to get out of these super high investments. Messi is old even if he is a god amongst men, Pogba is a flight risk. Whilst they are in the green it's easy to over look those things because of their MB/PB but if 10 Big Fish pull out... a lot of people will hit the red and then those fears will kick in - fast.

    So where will the big fish go next? Some will effectively 'short the stock', IE, take their money out, wait for the panic sellers, then buy back again. Others will prepare for the:

    • Nations League: Kane & Sterling
    • Summer Transfer Window: Bale, Sancho & Griezmann
    • New Season: Sane, Van Dijk, Son,

    And I suspect, a group of traders (I'm one of them) are looking at the super bargain basement market. IE, players who are going to be ridiculously cheap and therefore attractive to new traders and existing traders with smaller portfolios.

    Players like:

    • Matt Doherty
    • Olimpiu Morutan
    • Pedro
    • Kante
    • Nahitan Nadez
    • Rodrigo Bentacular
    • Youri Tielemans
    • Arthur
    • Diogo Jota
    • James Ward-Prowse
    • Jordan Henderson
    • Willy Boly
    • Eric Dier
    • Javier Manquillo
    • David Luiz
    • Ryan Fraser

    (Full Disclosure: With exception to Son, Messi, Griezmann and Sancho, I have futures in every play mentioned)

    I'm probably wrong but that's my take.



  • @Dan-The-Man It’ll take more than a share split for traders to find Jordan Henderson an attractive proposition. Even his missus regularly has doubts.



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Strategies and Share Split:

    @Dan-The-Man It’ll take more than a share split for traders to find Jordan Henderson an attractive proposition. Even his missus regularly has doubts.

    And Eric Dier although one goal and you have a nice 4 or 5% return instantly.



  • @Zidave True. But general elections are more frequent than Henderson or Dier goals.



  • @Frankie66 - I love your strategy as it mirrors what I am trying to implement so best of luck to you.

    1 consideration regarding selling if a player loses 30%. I think a sub age 23 player can bounceback quickly from such a loss. Maybe a middle aged player should be 20% and if Messi were to lose more than 10% I would be wanting to know pretty quick.

    30% seems a huge tolerance to risk. It all depends how proactive you are I guess.



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Strategies and Share Split:

    @Zidave True. But general elections are more frequent than Henderson or Dier goals.

    which is why I will never hold either.



  • @Timothee-Atouba

    With a 28p price tag, I'll take the chance on him. People have paid £1.22 for him during the World Cup. I dare say during the Nations League they'll be willing to put 28p on him. The 27p instant sell, means I aren't risking much but if he grows by 14p (IE, one half decent day) I'm 50% up.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Strategies and Share Split:

    @Timothee-Atouba

    With a 28p price tag, I'll take the chance on him. People have paid £1.22 for him during the World Cup. I dare say during the Nations League they'll be willing to put 28p on him. The 27p instant sell, means I aren't risking much but if he grows by 14p (IE, one half decent day) I'm 50% up.
    IF he has a good day yes. However I don’t understand the 28p, £1.22 comparisons. It’s like comparing the cost of one meal to three.



  • @Timothee-Atouba said in Strategies and Share Split:

    IF he has a good day yes. However I don’t understand the 28p, £1.22 comparisons. It’s like comparing the cost of one meal to three.

    Why do you say that?

    By June, the new players on here won't be talking about pre-share-split prices. They'll be looking for England players they can buy for cheap and his price tag will be cheap.



  • @Zidave Hi yes 30% appears a large deficit but on balance I am intending to reduce my shares on that player by 50% therefore leaving me shares for a bounce back. If my initial investments are sound any player in the portfolio should recover barring serious injury or retirement. I also believe that Messi and Ronaldo have great short term benefits but due to age we may see a drop off once newbie Investors have had a feeding frenzy so I will keep small investment on them for any PB/MB dividends and plan for new prospects next season. Pogba is still a media darling and again I will adjust my shares accordingly although more likely to hold for longer than Messi depends on any transfer abroad that may materialise if the rumours are to be believed.



  • @Dan-The-Man You say that people were happy to pay £1.22. Yes they were with higher dividends per share than post split at 28p or whatever.
    However the £1.22 proved to be much to higher price given that with enormous growth since then he’s now significantly cheaper.



  • @Timothee-Atouba I don't think anyone is wrong as each and every one of us have our take on each player in our portfolio. IMO though some of those players have issues as far as trading is concerned. Take David Luiz as an example. Age 32.,? Defender? Lacks Goals,? Little media attention. Only real positive may be transferred in the Summer which may stir some media attention although I feel that is negligible as many more transfer sagas will overshadow a Luiz move. He may garner a short term flip in the next week or so with new players finding his price attractive but that's how I see his outlook. I think the sound plays are going to be any youngsters involved in England's U18/U17 and senior teams breaking into there respective first teams. Older players commanding regular PB/ MB dividends. If you invest in these players before the split I feel your position come a months time will be a healthy one as long as you spread your investment proportionally over your portfolio.



  • There are no guidlines of how to trade on Fi but if there were don't buy cdms would be at the top of my list.



  • @LuaLua sorry for a silly question but what are cdm's .



  • @Timothee-Atouba

    I think we have to be careful when we make our assessments not to limit the reasons people purchase different players to simply 'how many dividends that player receives'.



  • @Frankie66 Central Defensive Midfielders

    You might be right about Luiz, his age is something people on here will care about but I'm hopeful that he is going to be good value for money.

    A defender who scores and takes free kicks, will stay at Chelsea especially considering their transfer ban and Chelsea have kept the 3rd most clean sheets in the league. His price tag is going to be irresistible to new comers, not to mention that he plays on Thursday nights and Chelsea could easily win the Europa.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Strategies and Share Split:

    @Timothee-Atouba

    I think we have to be careful when we make our assessments not to limit the reasons people purchase different players to simply 'how many dividends that player receives'.

    Agree entirely. The man is as important as the cards. It’s just CDM’s are a proven blowout, look at Kante! If I held Declan Rice I would be hopping off with significant pace, I’d be staggered if he’s more valuable in six months time.



  • @LuaLua completely agree with you for fi purposes they're pretty much useless. Kante is a great example one of the best in the world at cdm but sat at £1.50.



  • @Kaned-again

    FI certainly does suit certain positions (Wingers namely)

    That said, I think Kante might not be the best example. Sarri has been screwing him up all season. He's not actually playing CDM for the team. It's something many pundits have been critical of.

    You're point is still correct never the less.


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