£10 Neymar threshold (Existing vs New Divs)



  • Hi all,

    Happy Share Split eve!

    Having a quick look into the new Dividends coming into effect vs existing. Please forgive me if there any calculation errors below, and I'll correct any mistakes to avoid confusion.

    Based on the below, the threshold at which Neymar will effectively return less yield is the £10 mark (with the exception of Single Match Days). When he splits to slightly less than £8 tomorrow, how long do you think it will take him to rise and will FI introduce another split?

    Again, I did these calculations rather quick and hope they are good, but please correct me if not.

    Neymar

    Current price = £23.73 @ 25/03/2019
    New price (if no movement today) = £7.91

    Current Divs
    Triple
    12p. 0.12/23.73=0.005% return
    Double
    8p. 0.08/23.73=0. 003% return
    Single
    4p. 0.04/23.73=0.0017% return
    Media
    5p. 0.05/23.73=0.002% return

    Post Split
    Triple
    5p. 0.05/10=0.05% return
    Double
    3p. 0.03/10=0.003% return
    Single
    2p. 0.02/10=0.002% return (£11.76 threshold to match existing return).
    Media
    2p. 0.02/10=0.002% return

    I've excluded IPDs for now as this is more focused towards short term, and I thought long term value and yield was the better comparison.

    If you average across matchdays and include the increase for Single days, it averages £10.59, but the £10 seems a much better figure to work with as once we go above this, we are effectively trading for less returns on double and triple days.

    What do you think? Anyone else worried by this? I personally don't think it will take long for Neymar to reach £10 so a little concerned by the long term impact of this.. ..



  • I understand the calculations but don't understand your concerns. You are basically saying that Neymar should grow another £2 after the share split, so £6 in todays prices. Why is that such a bad thing?



  • @Weggers83 said in £10 Neymar threshold (Existing vs New Divs):

    I understand the calculations but don't understand your concerns. You are basically saying that Neymar should grow another £2 after the share split, so £6 in todays prices. Why is that such a bad thing?

    Because if/ when he grows more than £2 his return becomes less than it currently is, potentially making the platform less appealing.



  • Wouldn't that just make him less appealing rather than the platform?



  • @LarryDuffman - exactly. There is value in 100s of players in the index not just the top 10. I found a 51p player on Saturday and he rose to 75p but going to hold for a month in the unlikely hope of an enhanced IPD.

    Obviously if he goes up much more I may cash out part or all before then.



  • Neymar may become less appealing, but according to your calculations he still has another 25% growth left, which actually sounds pretty promising to me.


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