Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?

  • @JLampkin19
    In my opinion but others may disagree you’ll lose more than you’ll make with investing in youngsters who have played 0 minutes of first team football. It’s too hit and miss. What I look for is youngsters like felix, Dias who played tonight for benfica and they both play for there country. These players are ideal because they’re outside of the inplay dividends market and if they were too move too either a top European league I.e the premier league there price would rocket. I tend too stay away from goalkeepers and defenders. Also you can decide yourself, if you watch enough football like myself and you see potential then go for it.

  • @bouchet fantastic response, thanks. Still trying to wrap my head around these dividend returns...guessing that Sterling, Hazard, Kane (when fit) are the big hitters in this category?

  • @DavidMUFC1987 interesting...definitely gonna keep my ear to the ground with these transfers now that the season is coming to a close. Transfer window should be fun!

  • If you're not using it already, Whoscored is a great site for info.
    not just goals and assists, but how many shots / passes / tackles etc per game, which is good info for future PB winners.

    I have a mix of young players, likely transfer movers, but recently added a small sprinkle of the bigger MB winners to get some regular returns.

    Barca, Bayern and Utd will spend big this summer I think. Also keeping an eye on Ajax, as half that team could potentially get high bids, and that will either trigger transfers in, or allow some of the other youngsters to come through.

  • @Munchie63 Ajax undoubtedly the team to watch. De Jong, De Ligt, Neres and Ziyech all on the radar. Neres to Spain was the latest I heard...can see De Ligt headed that way soon too. Any others you're keeping tabs on? Lozano at PSV seems to have gone off the boil after a good start to the season.

  • I've been a trader here for 15 months now.

    During my first six months here I would have replied "long term". I had a 66% return due in main part to capital appreciation, dividends accounting for around 10%. A wide spread of top 200-300 players

    Then FI appointed some new board members which raised the number of vested interests with influence.
    That is when FI began to move the goalposts.

    Up until this time the only value was in MB and PB wins, along with speculation regarding the possibility of future wins.

    The introduction of IPD's did not significantly change things in terms of value.
    However the share split changed things drastically.
    The reason for this is quite simple.
    Firstly, less relevant - IPD's had the largest dividend increase, speaking proportionally in comparison to pre/post split dividends.
    Secondly, much more relevant. The individual commission cost for short term ownership and trading has fallen 3 fold.
    That factor increases value lower down in the market.

    I have been accused as being both stubborn and foolish by some forum users here. I am neither.
    I sacrificed 20% of my first 12 month profit to dump and transition (quickly). Even though it admittedly took a couple of weeks of hard thinking to take the "plunge".

    My response to your question today is "short term".
    I now own 5 shares for every one I owned before transition.
    Players that cost anywhere from 19p - 83p.

    I recouped that 20% in 10 days.
    It seems a little strange not having any investment come Euro nights, however I'm very much looking forward to the weekend games - My target again for the next 10 days is another 20%.

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  • @C-Arroyo

    Your target is 20% in 10 days?

    Wowza. That's a story I'd like to hear :)

    Can you elaborate on your strategy?


    Yeah that's a top strategy.

    I got in on Kane, during his last injury for the same reasons and made a ton of profit from it.

    He was and is my main plan for the summer as the Nations League kicks in, he'll be in the papers on a daily basis and that should see him rise.

  • @JLampkin19 Scored two the other day Lozano did. He's been consistently brilliant. What data are you looking at??!

  • @NewUser2025 said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    @JLampkin19 Hi Lampkin :) Nice to meet you as it were mate. I wish you lot's of fun & fortune on here. I've not been on here all that long, so my opinion's/strategy hasn't been proven over the year's, but what I do is to 'invest' & try to not 'gamble' on player's. What I mean is, I buy player's who are injured atm & who have had quite a sharp decrease in their share price.

    Interesting. Have you bought Welbeck?

  • @JLampkin19 Yeah all of those you mentioned are in my portfolio, along with Pogba, Neymar and VVD. These guys are regular MB winners and also win a few PB dividends. There are different ways to make money on here, but for me personally, I don't want to be chopping and changing my portfolio regularly. I have gone for these consistant FI performers who will generate regular dividends, allowing me to slowly but surely build my investment.

  • @Dan-The-Man said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    Your target is 20% in 10 days?
    Wowza. That's a story I'd like to hear :)
    Can you elaborate on your strategy?

    The target is dictated by past performance (the previous two weekends), it will be reduced with eventual commission/ownership costs by approx 5%.
    It was also I think a particularly good period with lots of investment going in where I'm holding.

    However I don't think I'll meet the target this next two weekends. There's money being pumped into Euro winners and more still being withdrawn and held in anticipation of the 15th announcement from FI.
    So I'll take 10%.

    Strategy is pretty simple.
    Data based selections, with a value derived from share price vs clean sheets or goals/assists.

    Right now the best value on the index is Andy Delort.
    18 goals/assists - cost 34p
    He's ineligible to play in the next game vs parent club Toulouse, but he's a steal if you can ride out that game.
    This player alone is likely to present a 20% return in appreciation over 10 days, he'll jump back up to 40p after the Toulouse game is out of the way.
    I've topped up a little to reduce the overall price I paid.

    I've bitten the bullet after FI moved the goalposts, but we simply don't see this sort of value in 2p MB for £10 futures.
    There's clearly been a recent dipping at the top end. I said it would happen - No player here is really worth more than £7.50 Certainly not those the wrong side of 25 yo.

    A good ten days for a player like Andy Delort will see a 10/20% dividend return as well as a further 10/20% in appreciation.
    A great example being Benito Raman this past couple of weeks at Fortuna Dusseldorf. Goals/Assists/PB and from a player still costing only 44p. (Sold after a 20% return)

  • @C-Arroyo How many futures of andy delort are you holding? Is it easy to sell off with these trades or are you having to instant sell?

  • @LuaLua

    Right now I have 300 Delort.

    If someone were to buy my 200 Zapata at 2p higher than I paid I'd gladly make it 900 Delort.

    Zapata has already given me a decent return and I'll gladly hold for another 2/3 games.
    I do not expect to sell at a loss, however if I do so I will be getting a cheaper instant rebuy - it's a long term strategy in that sense, taking into account the likely return over a season along with ongoing ownership costs to sell/rebuy.

    Timing is important, sometimes we need to choose between selling at a profit, prior to a nice easy home fixture, or riding it out - that's the risk element.
    One should have 1-3 sell opportunities in any 30 day period.

  • @LuaLua

    It's also worth noting...that's it's easy to derive a value for these players.

    Delort should in fact be 90p.
    Zapata should be £1.25.
    That's if neither plays again this season.
    It's closer to Delort £1.25, Zapata £1.75 if we start to speculate and assume a good season in Europe for the next year for Zapata. Delort is a loan player so there's added risk. However he's having a better season than 3 goal Toulouse hotshot Yaya Sanogo.

    Point being they have significant room for appreciation.
    More so than the top players !!!

    It's important to monitor this during ownership, if the player is appreciating faster than he's returning dividends, he's worth holding.
    I'm not seeing that trend though.....not yet. On the contrary they are becoming significantly cheaper when missing only a single game.
    Not buying Delort now is peeing money down the drain lol.
    It isn't a pump, it's an observation based on his past two weeks. Down from 45p - 34p because he misses one game.
    You'd think he's just done a cruciate lol, but it's a fickle area of the market with nice margins mate.
    I'm also in on Keeper Lecomte and striker Laborde at Montpellier. Around 40-50p a season in dividends a season for all 3 and the ownership costs should be around 15p in commission.
    Appreciation isn't really an issue until they become too expensive to flip, at that point they must win enough PB/MB to merit being long term holds - for the duration of their careers (to retain 3yr ROI).

  • @C-Arroyo Interesting stuff. May I ask what your strategy is for over the summer? Have you invested in any players with transfer speculation.

  • @Allams-Out said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    May I ask what your strategy is for over the summer?

    Close my eyes and ride it out lol

    I'm not sure I can take another whole portfolio transition in quick succession.

    Honestly it's hard to say, prior to the 15th.
    Obviously I'm not pulling funds and waiting when there's footy being played.

    I'll consider the announcement, if the likely profits exceed the 20% approx cost to completely flip the port for summer I'll probably jump on media for a while.
    It does bore me a tad though, sort of looking forward to three months break and making up for lost time whilst the days are long and the skirts are short.
    That seems to be a sensible long term trading strategy taking into account health, well being and sanity.
    Frankly I've been amazed by the reactions to "Can't do Friday night, Strasbourg are playing at home to Dijon", I feel like I've neglected things for a while and I have some making up to do.

  • Thanks mate very nice breakdown. I held delort and laborde awhile ago and made a tidy profit upon selling but didn't commit on such a large scale. just got a little bit scared and went on holiday so couldnt monitor so sold up.

    I havent recomitted as i Find it easier/less scary to play the index sometimes than the football and the thought of having so many shares in some little bloke out in france worries me. I had no idea the cycles were so quick, you're right delort fell of a hill for no reason. Maybe i'll buy some see what happens. Need to experiment a little bit.

    How did you calculate their value again? That was the one thing from your consortium/valuation posts i meant to remember, alas, i forgot. Why do you think delort is worthy of 90p? Was it something to do with ROI and ten percent or something? Thanks for the guidance @C-Arroyo

  • @LuaLua said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    How did you calculate their value again?

    I quickly realized during that very experiment that the top 200 were dead in the water, literally at sinking point.
    Aside from the very top, up to ten players.

    We had all subconsciously anticipated a simple rise in MB and PB, we all contributed to driving up the value of players like Ozil (MB) and Kimmich (PB).

    We didn't get that raise, we got massive investment in IPD's from FI's restructure. Like it or not. It is what it is.
    It took me two weeks (that felt like chewing rubber) to swallow it. I'm glad I didn't wait longer.

    On a positive note, we're all starting from a clean slate and that includes new members with limited funds.
    A fairer index and that is more important than the 20% I lost and others will lose once it sinks in.

    Value is derived from predicted IPD's over a single season vs ownership cost of ten flips.

    A player getting 15 goals and 5 assists will earn 20p a season in IPD's.
    If his cost were £1.00, his ownership cost (commission for flip 2p x 10) would match his predicted dividend return.

    At this point any 30 day period essentially becomes a higher/lower bet.
    So there is room to appreciate significantly before many players no longer make an appealing flip.

    So essentially it's predicted clean sheets / goals / assists for the season x 5.
    No flip should really be worth more than £1.50 at that price they enter the realm of MB/PB holds.

    That's a very different calculation (lifetime dividend potential vs price).
    Players like Lewandowski may be considered at more than £1.50 if one accounts for likely PB (or MB) to add to the likely 30-40p a season in IPD's during ownership.
    However any player over 30 has to have a depreciation of 10-20% a season to consider. Then it gets complicated.

  • @C-Arroyo said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    A player getting 15 goals and 5 assists will earn 20p a season in IPD's.
    If his cost were £1.00, his ownership cost (commission for flip 2p x 10) would match his predicted dividend return.

    This may be me being dumb but
    where did you get the number ten from?

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