Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?



  • @LuaLua

    Right now I have 300 Delort.

    If someone were to buy my 200 Zapata at 2p higher than I paid I'd gladly make it 900 Delort.

    Zapata has already given me a decent return and I'll gladly hold for another 2/3 games.
    I do not expect to sell at a loss, however if I do so I will be getting a cheaper instant rebuy - it's a long term strategy in that sense, taking into account the likely return over a season along with ongoing ownership costs to sell/rebuy.

    Timing is important, sometimes we need to choose between selling at a profit, prior to a nice easy home fixture, or riding it out - that's the risk element.
    One should have 1-3 sell opportunities in any 30 day period.



  • @LuaLua

    It's also worth noting...that's it's easy to derive a value for these players.

    Delort should in fact be 90p.
    Zapata should be £1.25.
    That's if neither plays again this season.
    It's closer to Delort £1.25, Zapata £1.75 if we start to speculate and assume a good season in Europe for the next year for Zapata. Delort is a loan player so there's added risk. However he's having a better season than 3 goal Toulouse hotshot Yaya Sanogo.

    Point being they have significant room for appreciation.
    More so than the top players !!!

    It's important to monitor this during ownership, if the player is appreciating faster than he's returning dividends, he's worth holding.
    I'm not seeing that trend though.....not yet. On the contrary they are becoming significantly cheaper when missing only a single game.
    Not buying Delort now is peeing money down the drain lol.
    It isn't a pump, it's an observation based on his past two weeks. Down from 45p - 34p because he misses one game.
    You'd think he's just done a cruciate lol, but it's a fickle area of the market with nice margins mate.
    I'm also in on Keeper Lecomte and striker Laborde at Montpellier. Around 40-50p a season in dividends a season for all 3 and the ownership costs should be around 15p in commission.
    Appreciation isn't really an issue until they become too expensive to flip, at that point they must win enough PB/MB to merit being long term holds - for the duration of their careers (to retain 3yr ROI).



  • @C-Arroyo Interesting stuff. May I ask what your strategy is for over the summer? Have you invested in any players with transfer speculation.



  • @Allams-Out said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    May I ask what your strategy is for over the summer?

    Close my eyes and ride it out lol

    I'm not sure I can take another whole portfolio transition in quick succession.

    Honestly it's hard to say, prior to the 15th.
    Obviously I'm not pulling funds and waiting when there's footy being played.

    I'll consider the announcement, if the likely profits exceed the 20% approx cost to completely flip the port for summer I'll probably jump on media for a while.
    It does bore me a tad though, sort of looking forward to three months break and making up for lost time whilst the days are long and the skirts are short.
    That seems to be a sensible long term trading strategy taking into account health, well being and sanity.
    Frankly I've been amazed by the reactions to "Can't do Friday night, Strasbourg are playing at home to Dijon", I feel like I've neglected things for a while and I have some making up to do.



  • Thanks mate very nice breakdown. I held delort and laborde awhile ago and made a tidy profit upon selling but didn't commit on such a large scale. just got a little bit scared and went on holiday so couldnt monitor so sold up.

    I havent recomitted as i Find it easier/less scary to play the index sometimes than the football and the thought of having so many shares in some little bloke out in france worries me. I had no idea the cycles were so quick, you're right delort fell of a hill for no reason. Maybe i'll buy some see what happens. Need to experiment a little bit.

    How did you calculate their value again? That was the one thing from your consortium/valuation posts i meant to remember, alas, i forgot. Why do you think delort is worthy of 90p? Was it something to do with ROI and ten percent or something? Thanks for the guidance @C-Arroyo



  • @LuaLua said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    How did you calculate their value again?

    I quickly realized during that very experiment that the top 200 were dead in the water, literally at sinking point.
    Aside from the very top, up to ten players.

    We had all subconsciously anticipated a simple rise in MB and PB, we all contributed to driving up the value of players like Ozil (MB) and Kimmich (PB).

    We didn't get that raise, we got massive investment in IPD's from FI's restructure. Like it or not. It is what it is.
    It took me two weeks (that felt like chewing rubber) to swallow it. I'm glad I didn't wait longer.

    On a positive note, we're all starting from a clean slate and that includes new members with limited funds.
    A fairer index and that is more important than the 20% I lost and others will lose once it sinks in.

    Value is derived from predicted IPD's over a single season vs ownership cost of ten flips.

    A player getting 15 goals and 5 assists will earn 20p a season in IPD's.
    If his cost were £1.00, his ownership cost (commission for flip 2p x 10) would match his predicted dividend return.

    At this point any 30 day period essentially becomes a higher/lower bet.
    So there is room to appreciate significantly before many players no longer make an appealing flip.

    So essentially it's predicted clean sheets / goals / assists for the season x 5.
    No flip should really be worth more than £1.50 at that price they enter the realm of MB/PB holds.

    That's a very different calculation (lifetime dividend potential vs price).
    Players like Lewandowski may be considered at more than £1.50 if one accounts for likely PB (or MB) to add to the likely 30-40p a season in IPD's during ownership.
    However any player over 30 has to have a depreciation of 10-20% a season to consider. Then it gets complicated.



  • @C-Arroyo said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    A player getting 15 goals and 5 assists will earn 20p a season in IPD's.
    If his cost were £1.00, his ownership cost (commission for flip 2p x 10) would match his predicted dividend return.

    This may be me being dumb but
    where did you get the number ten from?



  • @LuaLua

    10 flips
    Flip every 30 days from season start-finish.



  • Oh i seee. Ah yes.



  • @C-Arroyo "Then it gets complicated"

    lol.

    Well... I can honestly say, you're playing this on a completely different level to me mate. Best of luck with it all.

    I'm taking more of a 'read the market' approach. IE, where will the market move to 2-3 months from now.

    It's not fool proof and Kane's injury kicked me in the wallet, plus I haven't been here long enough to get a feel for what summer will be like, but I suspect it could be years to get that pattern down properly.

    Logic says MB/Transfers/Nations League/Promoted Players - but I've seen a fair few people are worried about a mass exodus over summer.



  • This is all super useful thanks mate! Good to see someones working hard on evaluations.
    Totally agree with inflated prices. Everyones just happy to play the game of capital appreciation at the moment. The market just inst forcing anyone to be efficient atm which is lucky for all of us tbh and in reality i kinda see it being like that for next few seasons and even longer depending on how expansions into different countries go but i do think its worth getting ready for the battle ahead.

    The calculation I was using before was

    ((Dividends won/games played) * (games in month) ) / Price

    That gives you the percentage of their price their likely to earn in divs through that month (if they stick to past div schedule)

    Was planning on working in a kindof opponent goals conceded coefficient as well so i could put that into the equation but havent quite got around to that with ski holiday and impending uni deadlines.



  • @Dan-The-Man Ain't no mass exodus happening over summer relax. Even if there is a dip there is almost certainly gonna be a big promotion push just before the beginning of next season to get new users in so all will be fine.



  • @C-Arroyo Great response, cheers. Seems like a good range to target given the possibility for sharp increases. Might have to bite the bullet on some LTHs myself...



  • @JLampkin19
    Lozano and Bergwijn at psv

    I think Donny Van De Beek will be the next big one. Already scoring and gets assists, and once De Jong leaves he will grow. IMO.
    Gravenberch and Bakker from the youth team as moves would leave space for them.

    Tagliafico is being scouted and linked with a move, so Bakker just might get involved.

    One of the rumours with De Ligt is that Barca have offered 4 players to Ajax if they allow him to join. Oriol Busqets (holding mid) , Juan Miranda (left back), Tobido (CB) and Riqui Puiq who's price is already on the up.

    I think theres a good chance Ajaz will bid for Odegaard too.

    For me, the Ajax players are a likely 2 year hold, as its a year to get noticed, then another to seal a deal.

    Look through yourself though mate. Thats the golden rule before you put any money in, never take anybody else's word for it



  • @Munchie63 said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

    Tobido

    Cheers @Munchie63 some good Eredivisie knowledge there! Ajax always pump out some good talent. What do you think will happen with Dolberg?



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Ayoze Perez - Sold within 14 days +20%

    Reinvested in Ashley Barnes


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