You seem to forget....



  • This has been bugging me for a while and I keep meaning to make a post about it but not had the time, so here goes...

    FI is very much like poker in its business model AND its customer base.
    Some players win, some lose and the site takes commission (rake), paying some back in dividends (rakeback/freerolls).
    And for you to win, it is essential that others lose. In poker, weak players are called fish. I will use the same terminology here for sake of ease.

    First consider, that the people who make the most profit are the people who engage in the site the most. That includes social media etc. Those who don't engage are much more likely to have losing accounts, or at best a lower profit margin than those who seek every avenue for knowledge.
    So how many players?

    On the site itself, going by usernames, I think we can assume we are over 300k accounts. Now let's also assume there are only 50k active accounts (in reality it is likely much more) and base our numbers on this.
    On twitter it looks like there are roughly 30k accounts linked to FI, but you can probably discount well over half to bring it down to 15k. Infact, those actively engaging in twitter is probably less than 2k but lets keep it at 15k.
    There are about 4k on facebook, you can safely assume at least half are on twitter so lets say 2k.
    Then there is this forum. I would be shocked if you could find more than 200 active accounts, and another 800 lurkers to give 1k, but let's double that to 2k too.
    50k accounts - 15k twitter - 2k fb - 2k here = 31k players who are NOT actively engaged in seeking our information from others. Lets add another 6k who will look for own info but are not engaged here that would bring it down to 25k players not engaged.
    That is 50% of players. That is a huge % and most likely, so much higher. 50% of accounts are fish accounts. (And personally I would say it is closer to 5% of all players actively engaging in forums etc).

    So when you are ranting on here about people IS'ing etc, you are wrong. You WANT and NEED people making bad decisions to be able to make your profit margins.
    By all means point out why it is wrong, because your thoughts will only reach a tiny minority of people.
    But don't laugh and take the mick. We have a saying in poker when you find a fish. "Don't tap the glass."

    When you are looking at drops, they aren't even that bad.
    When you see someone say 'omg he dropped 50p, it is disaster' consider that is only 45000 shares being sold. That is less than 1 share per account. It is a tiny amount.

    FI talk about big numbers being traded, such as 35million. You can instantly half that because you can bet they include both buyer and seller. Then there is all the movement in play etc. It is quite a small amount being traded, most people will be sitting tight.

    ISing and losing players are good for us. It pays dividends. It pays for the bonus. It pays for advertising.
    IPD's drive this, again, this is good for us, not bad.

    Fish = good.

    Now, I have seen the argument that everyone wins here. That is bull and not even close to true. So why would people stay if they are losing?
    Consider:
    Poker has approx. 2% of players winning. That is 98% of players losing and the number of players keeps growing.
    Betting has approx. 5% of players winning. That is 95% of players losing and the number of players keeps growing.

    And the numbers grow because people are dumb, or have different reasons for playing.
    I win at poker and betting because I put in the extra effort needed. The same will happen here.
    Losing players will continue to play here and keep depositing because they are gamblers, or they have convinced themselves they are winners, or simply because it is entertainment.

    Buy low when others make mistakes and sell too much.
    Sell high when others make mistakes and buy too much.

    But keep the fish coming and the profits will follow.



  • @MrWh1te

    Very well written/explained mate.

    I'd urge people to let the following part in particular sink in: 'You WANT and NEED people making bad decisions to be able to make your profit margins.'



  • Fantastic post 👌

    I love this : We have a saying in poker when you find a fish. "Don't tap the glass." 😂😂

    As an infrequent poker player (recovering addict shall we say😉) I have my "fishy" moments and yes overall I am down (probably around 10k over the last 20 years).

    I was lucky though, in the fact that I identified my problem myself (albeit after a third bank loan in as many weeks to try and recoup my losses was refused 🙈😁).

    I realised I played poker out of boredom, spending all my wages halfway through the month regularly. Even when I won, I'd keep playing, up the stakes and blow it all.

    The problem I had with poker, which could be compared to FI, is i had no exit strategy.
    So I had to exit for good. Self exclusion on all sites.

    Best move I made 💪. Searched for a hobby to fill the void that quitting poker left, randomly chose painting...5 years later and I'm making a living as a portrait painter and run my own shop/gallery.
    What's more, painting taught me a very important quality which is perfectly suited to succeed on FI...

    PATIENCE



  • @MrWh1te I completely agree with you there, and have always advocated helping new users. I sold reasonably profitable placepot systems in the early 90's, and wasn't worried about reduced winnings, I worked on an assumption that buyers wouldn't stick with them, and would move on to whatever the latest betting sensations were.



  • @ScouseSte said in You seem to forget....:

    Fantastic post 👌

    I love this : We have a saying in poker when you find a fish. "Don't tap the glass." 😂😂

    As an infrequent poker player (recovering addict shall we say😉) I have my "fishy" moments and yes overall I am down (probably around 10k over the last 20 years).

    I was lucky though, in the fact that I identified my problem myself (albeit after a third bank loan in as many weeks to try and recoup my losses was refused 🙈😁).

    I realised I played poker out of boredom, spending all my wages halfway through the month regularly. Even when I won, I'd keep playing, up the stakes and blow it all.

    The problem I had with poker, which could be compared to FI, is i had no exit strategy.
    So I had to exit for good. Self exclusion on all sites.

    Best move I made 💪. Searched for a hobby to fill the void that quitting poker left, randomly chose painting...5 years later and I'm making a living as a portrait painter and run my own shop/gallery.
    What's more, painting taught me a very important quality which is perfectly suited to succeed on FI...

    PATIENCE

    Good on you mate 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻



  • @ScouseSte said in You seem to forget....:

    Best move I made 💪. Searched for a hobby to fill the void that quitting poker left, randomly chose painting...5 years later and I'm making a living as a portrait painter and run my own shop/gallery.

    that's amazing, well done!



  • @dannypea said in How many active users here on the forum:

    I'm active... although I do question Mr White... how does he differentiate those that have multiple accounts??? ie use twitter, facebook and the forum as one???

    Took this from the 'active' thread to save derailing it.
    It is a good point and one that I don't think can be answered.
    My guess would be that most people who are on facebook are also on here and on twitter. And most people on here are also on twitter.

    Thus my figures are wrong in that I have over-estimated them (I thought better to do that than under-estimate) and my % argument is even stronger, with way less active on social media than what I wrote.
    Hence why I made my figures 50% active but said I think the real figures are more like 5%.

    I had to do a lot of guesswork on that I am afraid, but wanted to use figures to reinforce my point.



  • @MrWh1te well that clears it all up :-/

    to be honest it was a lovely piece what you've written but I haven't a clue what your point is amongst all that!!!!

    maybe i should play more poker before I contemplate trying to understand????

    ;-)



  • @dannypea Haha yeah tbh when I posted it I did feel like I did lose my point along the way.

    In summary...

    1. The people using the forums and social media is a tiny % compared to FI users.

    2. Critisizing people for IS etc will only lead to them a) leaving or b) getting better.
      Both points lead to you losing profit margins.

    3. Anyone complaining about people using IS are fundamentally wrong. The more people use IS, the better it is for those of us who know what we are doing.
      In poker terms, it is like complaining when a player plays badly or is a rubbish player, they might get lucky on that one time but long term, playing against them will give you way more profits.

    It is basic -/+ roi (return on investment). Everytime someone using IS or sells when a player will rise is -roi and that leads to a +roi for those doing it right.



  • I have to leave for an hour but I want to leave you with this very, very true story.

    The first time I ever sat at a poker table I had no idea what I was doing. A mate told me about this new online poker thing and how sites were giving away free money.
    One site (still one of the top 3 poker sites) was giving $50 and you could claim the money and withdraw without even playing.
    I took my $50 straight to a cash table and sat down with the lot. Two guys went all in. and I called them with A5 for a $150 pot. They flipped over and has AA and KK. I won.
    Now I could have carried on playing, smug with the fact that I was the best player at the table. They would have won every last penny off of me.
    Instead, they went mental at me, berating me and telling me exactly why I was sh*t, what I should have done and how they were gonna make me go broke.
    I had three options after this abuse.

    1. leave and withdraw and never play again.
    2. stay and play.
    3. leave and play a different table.

    I chose option 3, but you know what, I have NEVER in 20 years, made that same mistake again.
    Had they kept quiet I would have stayed and played and they would have won every penny back off of me.
    But they gave me crap and I left the table. I could have left the site and they wouldn't have got a penny. I decided to stay and got better, as a direct result of their abuse. And I played them often after that. I won a lot and they lost a lot.
    They tapped the glass.

    Now, this forum is pretty supportive all round, but spend 30 mins looking through facebook threads and you will find repeated instances of people 'tapping the glass'.

    If people come here willing to learn, by all means help them, I will too.
    But if they aren't willing to learn, you will gain nothing by tapping the glass :)



  • @MrWh1te ooo thats much better than your first post, like that story a lot, i'll tell that to my kids one day, its like a high stakes aesop fable adapted for the morally corrupt modern age.



  • @MrWh1te may I ask ur 'age' ❓



  • @Friedeggs 40 :/

    How come?



  • @ScouseSte Well Done on beating your demons and you summed up this game perfectly and patience is the winning mentality..Once you dont gamble on this site and trade for the long term you will do very well..



  • Poker doesn't have 2% win players (where are you getting that crazy figure?) try 10% to 15% in its early years and a ton of break even players, im sure that figure has dropped alot by now, no one plays it anymore much, training sites killed it and black friday usa online ban. Poker is more skill based then this.

    In Poker people have to lose for you to make money, in this they do not , you only need more and more users to join. I would argue that them losing money flipping decreases our share value in general, wasting their money on commission. It is only good for Football index not us (although they do need to make profit of course).

    Look football index works because people join like a pyramid pushing up share prices in general, good decisions increase the profit margin only but everyone's basically a winner unless your completely retarded. Poker you actually have to outsmart people and push them around aggressively putting them in tough spots to make money, exploiting their weaknesses. Poker takes years of hand reading skills and experience. This platform can be learned very fast. Its much more simple.

    In this even if you just buy Pogba and sit on it, you make money long term.
    Almost everyone will make money on this unless crazy gambler with no patience at all. A passive game can make money in football index. A passive game in poker would get destroyed, you would get bluffed all the time and rake would kill you.

    But I do agree the risk reward is similar as the golden age of online poker when the games were very easy, hence why i have invested a ton of money.



  • @MrWh1te
    It's obviously hard to 'gauge' someone's opinion/experience's unless ...IMO they 'have a few years under them' ..been around etc
    If ya would have said for example 18-22 I would have been inclined to think ...here we go again another young 'un'.....like I witness frequently 👍



  • @NeverWin said in You seem to forget....:

    Poker doesn't have 2% win players (where are you getting that crazy figure?) try 10% to 15% in its early years and a ton of break even players, im sure that figure has dropped alot by now, no one plays it anymore much, training sites killed it and black friday usa online ban. Poker is more skill based then this.

    In Poker people have to lose for you to make money, in this they do not , you only need more and more users to join. I would argue that them losing money flipping decreases our share value in general, wasting their money on commission. It is only good for Football index not us (although they do need to make profit of course).

    Look football index works because people join like a pyramid pushing up share prices in general, good decisions increase the profit margin only but everyone's basically a winner unless your completely retarded. Poker you actually have to outsmart people and push them around aggressively putting them in tough spots to make money, exploiting their weaknesses. Poker takes years of hand reading skills and experience. This platform can be learned very fast. Its much more simple.

    In this even if you just buy Pogba and sit on it, you make money long term.
    Almost everyone will make money on this unless crazy gambler with no patience at all. A passive game can make money in football index. A passive game in poker would get destroyed, you would get bluffed all the time and rake would kill you.

    But I do agree the risk reward is similar as the golden age of online poker when the games were very easy, hence why i have invested a ton of money.

    Ok, well I have stood up for you a fair bit, but that doesn't mean you get a free ride :)
    So here goes...

    First of all, it isn't far off 2%. If it was 10-15% of players in early years (your words not mine) and it is harder now, then it will be a lot lower than 10%. Estimates range between 1-10%. Remove those players who make a profit but only due to rakeback and bonus' (like me) as we aren't beating the game, and that is a very low figure indeed. I stand by my 2% estimate.

    In poker people have to lose for me to make money, yes. In FI the same is true.
    Say there is 10 people and we all put in £100. That is £1000. Now, take out 2% commission on one sale each. That's -£20 leaving only £980. Now, player 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 all make £50 profit so they now have £150 each. That means the pot for the other five is £230. £230. They have lost. For everyone making a profit, someone loses.
    Atm people aren't seeing huge losses because of all the new money being pumped in. Sooner or later money wont be pumped in and losses will be exaggerated. Don't believe me on current losses? Go look on Facebook, they are full of people posting losing figures.

    There are only 2 ways people can make money.

    1. new money (currently very obvious).
    2. being more skilful (more skilful choices are making stacks of money more than the lesser).
      As 1 becomes less, #2 will take over.
      This is EXACTLY the same as poker in the early days. Money was being thrown at everyone and people were pretty much guaranteed not to lose. As the free money dried up, skill took over. In the first few years (maybe 5 years) I made £20,000 profit. Now I only make £100 a month as a combination of poker/betting.

    ATM FI looks like a pyramid scheme and to an extent it is. That won't continue and wont continue at same speed. Then skill will take over and the fact you are playing against other people will become more apparent.

    This platform is just like poker in simplicity/skill too. Both are very easy to learn and both will be very hard to master.

    20 years ago, a passive poker made a LOT of money. I am passive. ABC poker worked. It doesn't now.
    FI is the same. Passitivity that works now will not work in 5 years time.



  • Very interesting and eye opening as I was having similar conversations pre the last SS with my FI buddies. We were contemplating the effects of SS and the platform in general and having had some success on FI over a couple of years using as you mention ABC tactics, we were patting ourselves on the back for keeping on top of our investments and keeping spreadsheet on spreadsheet on different angles and sharing them without thought as friends do,and it became apparent that due to our success we had not really utilised any of the information or nailed down any strategies that would keep us in front. The site had evolved and we hadn't and unless we got on our toes we could be swamped by upcoming FI Gods.

    The Poker point was at the forefront of that conversation as a couple of the group had dabbled but back then Betfair was the new boy on the block so exactly as you applied your example to your experience with Poker we can apply it to our getting involved in betfair and as you have already done regarding FI. Never rest on your laurels because no matter how big a fish you may be there is always a Whale, with money, to swallow you up. Use a tried and tested strategy and don't deviate. Be friendly on all media platforms relating to your investments, you never know when your gonna need some advice and it's just nice. Stifle the greed, dont be afraid of a loss and by the same token dont be afraid of missing out , take the profit while its there. If you do the hard work , get your maths in order you will prosper.



  • @Friedeggs said in You seem to forget....:

    @MrWh1te
    It's obviously hard to 'gauge' someone's opinion/experience's unless ...IMO they 'have a few years under them' ..been around etc
    If ya would have said for example 18-22 I would have been inclined to think ...here we go again another young 'un'.....like I witness frequently 👍

    I just wish I was 18-22 again, but with the knowledge and experience I have now :)



  • @MrWh1te My sentiments entirely!


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