Messi Theory



  • Hello Indexers.
    After another super performance for Lionel Messi against Manchester United.
    His shares rose then dropped again overall, lower than pre match. I have a theory on this and want your views. He must have been one of the star buys when Football Index was launched in 2015. When he must have been well under a fiver.
    The amount the earlier investors must have made on Messi have been huge since then, and they must be cashing out or 're investing in the next big thing.

    I do believe holding long term will only help, as his dividend return is supreme in MB and PB especially. Once we get more users, naturally being a popular regular dividend maker-I can see him become £10 again before another share split or when FI finally hits Spain for example.

    What are your thoughts?



  • Yeah, this has been discussed on numerous threads, and it is a bit of mystery. Fair enough of ppl were cashing out because his divs had slowed, but he has been ABSOLUTELY creaming the divs since Xmas so all a bit confusing.
    Perhaps original investors cashing out out is one of the contributing factors. Who knows.



  • Maybe ppl who invested early and have made a killing on divs just want rid cos hes getting no younger, but if hes depreciating on price they just offload whenever theres a spike



  • @Valhalla I've had a few gins. I now realize I've just repeated your thoughts in different words, sorry bud 🍸🍸🍸



  • Perhaps some big hitters are approaching 3 year hold and cash out on every rise.



  • @PogbaforMB I wonder how much he cost at Index launch?



  • Messi has dropped for two reasons:

    1. He isn't an obvious summer asset (relatively speaking)
    2. Age
    3. People trying to beat an end of season/CL exit drop
    4. People panicking

    I would suspect he would be one of the players who will rise approaching the new season as people want the best PB players so if you weren't able to beat the drop then just chill out.



  • Are dividends only paid during the first 30 days of ownership? Could people just be buying and selling him every 30 days. When he rises enough to cover commission they sell. Then buy back. I am confused by the dividends in general, can someone explain please.



  • @JustTheTip

    Read this https://forums.footballindex.co.uk/topic/5017/all-things-football-index/179. It was put together to help newbies get to grips with the index. I, along with a lot of other people, have found it very useful.

    But to answer your question, IPDs (in play dividends) last for 30 days. I doubt people are buying Messi just for these as you wouldn't win enough dividends to cover the 2% commission (well with Messi you might just cover it but he would need to score or assist about 10 goals just to break even)



  • @Weggers83

    Also Media Dividends and Performance dividends last for as long as you hold the shares.



  • @Weggers83 top class, thanks. I didn't think about the 2% commission. I guess it's more of an issue with the expensive players



  • @Clover earliest price i remember messi at was £1.25



  • @Finlay77 This is incredible! Imagine in another 3 years the value of the players.



  • @Clover i sold my neymars at 4.35. Also remember ronaldo being the biggest mb pull at just over a huge £2 something 😂. Also recall lukaku hitting £6 and we all thought we would never see a player break £6 again! How times change!!



  • @Clover imagine people who compounded their dividends in him? One guy had just neymar and reinvested his divs in him alone until he had thousands! Ridiculous but damn clever man!



  • @Finlay77 I am sure the share values will rise faster than before. So the dividend structure has to compensate again soon.



  • Well old man Messi looks likely to pick up mb tonight or at worst 2nd. Over 30 not over the hill



  • Pipped at the post his back must of gave out 😂



  • What do people think will happen to Messi’s value next season? He’ll no doubt bang in 40 or 50 goals, and be the star player for Barca, but will his age finally mean his value drops, or will he last out for another season as one of the top players?

    Thinking Ronaldo has a few years on him and if it wasn’t for the rape case his value would probably be just as high, but is that just wishful thinking?



  • @GregF personally i think his price will go up a good bit. People are focused on youth because they want to find the next messi but theres no indication to say he is slowing down or ready to even think of retirement. Whats the point in in hoping to find the next big thing when the current big thing will be dominating for the next 2-3 years.
    Messi has been the biggest dividend earner on the index this last 5 months and i think next season will be even better now that most of ronaldos press is bad press. As far the media is concerned messi will become the undisputed GOAT im sure of it

    And to answer what you said about Ronaldo I definitely think his price would be higher if wasnt for the rape case as its plummeted ever since it came out but people blame it on age but he didnt suddenly get old the day that story was published.


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