Pogba, Hold or sell



  • @NeaviePops23 ^^^ the first scenario much more likely 😁



  • @Ericali

    It's gone all handbags at this point.

    Mocking people for spelling. Getting personal about relationships and life outside the Index. There's even a little light homophobia in here somewhere... The richest man I ever knew didn't give a crap about spelling, not like he had to read his own writing... Maybe there's a lesson in that.

    It'd be a lot better if everyone just focused on the topic rather than taking swipes at each other. It's cool if we all disagree. If we didn't, we'd all end up with the same players. (which would also be cool ha)

    Here's my take.

    Between now and July 1st, Pogba may indeed be a decent... but risky hold.

    There's a solid 200 players on here who are less risky and who will grow more significantly than Pogba. So why take the risk?

    I mean let's say Pogba does absolutely amazing and picks up £1 in divs then rises £1 because of that. He's up 13% and paid a dividend of 13%. That's a truly excellent return. To put it into perspective though. Youri Tielemans has risen by 120% in the last 6 weeks. All of a sudden Pogba's 26% looks crap. And yeah... people need to diversify, so it's not like anyone is picking up 10,000 Your Tielemans... but as I said there's 200 other players who will rise.

    I look at this a bit like car insurance... You all know that even if it's not your fault... if you report that you were in an accident, your own insurance still goes up. It's because the way the insurance company looks at it... you are more risky than someone who has never been in a crash. Pogba has been in a crash and will be in a crash.



  • @NeaviePops23 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    "Remeber all those people on that thread who said they would be keeping hold of Pogba! Bet those morons are regretting it now, limited MD and now worth less

    Lol, that was literally me, in this thread about a week ago.

    @Dan-The-Man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I can see a bunch of people saying hold but he's too risky for my money. Sure, he might pick up another 50p over the summer in media but the chances of him dropping 50p the second any of the transfer speculation looks real are just as likely.

    Why tie up all of your money when there are tons of players, not only safer but who will also see bigger returns?

    Pulisic and Kane are as safe a bet as you can place on here right now. Kane is already injured... and already rising again on his way to the Nations League. Pulisic was bought specifically for media purposes and is transferring to the Premiership which means he should rise in the run up to his game. Both are going to return dividends both are considerably cheaper than Pogba.

    @Andy-M @Vespasian32 @LuaLua @ScouseSte

    OK... couldn't resist. The above comments were made on the 20th of April as my original reply.

    Since then...

    Harry Kane has risen over 60p
    Pulisic has risen over 40p
    Pogba has dropped over 70p (but picked up a whopping 10p of divs)

    I tried to tell you all... Andy said I was scaremongering, Ste said I was pushing an agenda. I was genuinely just trying to help.

    If you'd have ditched the 500 Pogba, you'd have got out before his fall, could have bought 500 Kane AND 500 Pulisic AND you'd have had enough to buy 500 Van Dijk, with some cash left over too. Be about a grand better off right now.



  • @TraderJ the stats are there.



  • 0_1557931184044_upload-3cbbbc3f-88d2-4d82-b2bc-c622f74565e2



  • I don't know how the ex holders and detractors are working out that it's likely he'll leave, he's still odds on to stay with the bookies and by logic considering his price/contract 2022/agent ban.



  • A couple of things to consider with Pogba.

    1 it’s being taken as a given he’s going to move. The actual chance is still less than 50% according to bookmaker odds. Probably in the region of 30-40% (hard to get actual percentages until a “to stay” option is available for market balance but the chance of a move will be significantly lower than the odds imply currently).

    2 Pogba at United is heavily undervalued at his current price vs dividend yield. His is by far the highest yield of any big hitting player under 30 and that’s before we come into media madness where it’s inevitable he will do well. Without the risk of moving I could genuinely see him as a £9+ player at this point in time based on returns and age.

    So 60-70% of the time you’re getting a £9 worthy dividend winner for a cut price.

    30-40% he drops, possibly to around £5ish, compensated by a large amount of dividends (genuinely wouldn’t be surprised with a over £1 per share in divs if a move goes ahead).

    Good odds in my book at his current price.



  • I think pogba will stay at utd and be a worldly,played in his best position/main man next season! His price will rocket again!



  • @PB-man

    I don't see him as undervalued at all but I'd be open to hearing you out on it.

    To me, he's £2.40 more expensive than the next player.

    He's not remotely attractive at his current price point (£7.75), when Harry Kane is sat at £4.80 with:

    • an Injury Return,
    • Champions League Final,
    • Nations League Semi-Final,
    • Possible Nations League Final,

    All in the space of a few weeks. I mean... Kane has all the MB fire power needed and he has chance for G&A & PB.

    Surely, a players value on a platform like FI, is dictated by the opportunities around him? Right now, Maguire represents significantly lower risk, higher short term growth potential than Pogba.



  • @Dan-The-Man Kane’s yield is nowhere near Pogba’s and even with all that going for him is unlikely to be (I hold both).

    Over the past year Kane has returned less than a third of Pogba’s dividends. Kane’s yield has been 11% of his current price, Pogba’s 22% so you’re getting far better value from Pogba even at a much higher price.

    The Frenchman could be double his current value and still yield the same percentage as Kane which is crazy.

    Pog at United is basically on another level to everyone else on the Index.



  • @PB-man not for pb or IPDs,



  • @Earshavewalls Huh? Pog has won more PB and produced more IPDs than Kane.



  • Must be a Kane clause similar to the Messi-time-continuam

    Pogba bad because divs mean nothing and risk of depreciation
    Messi is great because he wins divs and depreciation doesn't mean anything

    Kane is immune to facts because...



  • @PB-man you said on another level to anyone on FI. He has more than Kane but not on another level to anyone in FI.



  • @Earshavewalls If anyone's buying pogba for ipds they're fucking crazy tho ahahha



  • @PB-man

    It's not as simple as you made out but I do like a man who looks at numbers. So let's do that.

    Fair Comparison
    You can't buy 1 Pogba for the price of 1 Kane, so you can't compare them both like that. The way to do the comparison is to buy £1,000 worth of both players.

    Result: 208 Kane Futures = 129 Pogba Futures.

    MB
    Football Index Scout, shows us that last summer, Pogba earned 47p in MB and Harry Kane earned 33p in MB.

    Given the media bonus I have doubled them both, so Pogba = 94p, Kane = 66p. This is incredibly generous to Pogba because Pogba won the World Cup and he isn't in the Nations League or Champions League anymore, unlike Kane.

    Growth
    In the last month. Pogba has gone down 5.4%, Kane has risen 17.6%. Rather than assume Kane will continue with that level of growth and Pogba will continue with that level of shrinkage. I have divided them both by 3.

    IE, Kane's projected growth = 5.87% (3x less than it was last month), and Pogba will go down by just 1.83%, instead of going down by 5.4% like he did last month.

    PB
    Pogba can't get PB or G&A but Kane can. It's not guaranteed though so we'll ignore these for now.

    Calculation

    208 Kanes * 66p of MB = £137.28
    129 Pogba * 94p of MB = £121.26

    £1,000 Kane + 5.87% = £1058.70
    £1,000 Pogba -1.83% = £981.70

    Total Value
    Kane: £137.28 + £1058.70 = £1,195.98
    Pogba: £981.70 + £121.26 = £1,102.96

    Summary
    These are all the ways the calculation screws Kane:

    • Assuming Pogba beats Kane for MB, despite the Champions League Final and Nations League Finals

    • Disregarding Kane's chances of PB/G&A

    • Doubling MB over last year, which is where Pogba see's his biggest growth (even though his MB already factors in that he won the World Cup)

    • Dividing Kane's current growth percentage by 3

    • Decreasing Pogba's current decline percentage by a multiple of 3

    Even factoring in all of that... Kane still comes out on top. At a push, you could complain that Pogba should rise because of his MB winnings but last month Pogba won MB a number of times (9p MB), Kane didn't win any... Pogba still declined, Kane still increased and that's when Pogba had chances of PB that Kane didn't have.

    Please everyone... Poke flaws in this. It's by no means a perfect model. It's just an example based on the current data that we have, with some half decent assumptions factored in. Feel free to add in more assumptions and tweak the numbers to see where it comes out.



  • @Dan-The-Man
    Good post bud



  • @Dan-The-Man people are steadfast in there opinions & won't budge no matter what maths you throw at then.

    Best to just leave them to it - the older holders should do just fine as they should have built up a buffer of profit to negotiate any losses. It's the people buying now who have to accumulate 18p of capital appreciation just to cover the commission when sold. Their the ones in choppy water.

    Obviously, if you already hold Pogba, you want others to invest in your product - this is just human nature.

    So your not going to set out the potential pitfalls, only the potential upside - which is him staying or signing a new contract.

    At which point, I'll gladly re-join the boat ⛵ or train 🚂 whatever people want to call it. I've never hid this fact as his MB whilst still at Manchester United is unrivalled on the platform.

    But I don't have any intention being involved while the boat is on choppy waters for a measly 30-40p when his share price could fall by £1.50+

    It's outright bad business.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Great bit of rationale Dan and I accept and appreciate all that you have stated, and I also agree with your evaluation.

    I hold Kane for capital appreciation, I do not hold or will be buying any Pogba shares but for the sake of balance any investor who has held Pogba shares for some time, and are sitting on a juicy profit, I understand why you would hold due to the potential rewards on offer over the summer due to MB, as you would have time to get out should his price tank.

    That said anyone considering buying Pogba at his current price must have balls of steel as the risk/reward ratio is far too high.

    Good luck to everyone who holds (you are braver than me)



  • Pogba is an absolute MB beast at Utd. But if leaves the Premier League, he’ll likely tank, with maybe 50% wiped off his value.

    Even if there’s only a 30% chance of him leaving, the risk is too high for me. I remember what happened to Coutinho after his transfer went through.

    Plus there is the issue that Pogba is actually not a particularly good footballer. I know that doesn’t matter for MB (in fact it may help at times), but I have a nagging feeling that it’ll affect his share price at some point.

    He reminds me of Mario Balotelli a bit - i.e. a problem child who can’t apply himself properly.

    Having said all of that, if I held him, there’s no way i’d sell yet. He’ll return plenty of MB with the “will he / won’t he leave” transfer speculation and there’ll be plenty of opportunities to sell over the next couple of months.


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