Pogba, Hold or sell

  • @PB-man you said on another level to anyone on FI. He has more than Kane but not on another level to anyone in FI.

  • @Earshavewalls If anyone's buying pogba for ipds they're fucking crazy tho ahahha

  • @PB-man

    It's not as simple as you made out but I do like a man who looks at numbers. So let's do that.

    Fair Comparison
    You can't buy 1 Pogba for the price of 1 Kane, so you can't compare them both like that. The way to do the comparison is to buy £1,000 worth of both players.

    Result: 208 Kane Futures = 129 Pogba Futures.

    Football Index Scout, shows us that last summer, Pogba earned 47p in MB and Harry Kane earned 33p in MB.

    Given the media bonus I have doubled them both, so Pogba = 94p, Kane = 66p. This is incredibly generous to Pogba because Pogba won the World Cup and he isn't in the Nations League or Champions League anymore, unlike Kane.

    In the last month. Pogba has gone down 5.4%, Kane has risen 17.6%. Rather than assume Kane will continue with that level of growth and Pogba will continue with that level of shrinkage. I have divided them both by 3.

    IE, Kane's projected growth = 5.87% (3x less than it was last month), and Pogba will go down by just 1.83%, instead of going down by 5.4% like he did last month.

    Pogba can't get PB or G&A but Kane can. It's not guaranteed though so we'll ignore these for now.


    208 Kanes * 66p of MB = £137.28
    129 Pogba * 94p of MB = £121.26

    £1,000 Kane + 5.87% = £1058.70
    £1,000 Pogba -1.83% = £981.70

    Total Value
    Kane: £137.28 + £1058.70 = £1,195.98
    Pogba: £981.70 + £121.26 = £1,102.96

    These are all the ways the calculation screws Kane:

    • Assuming Pogba beats Kane for MB, despite the Champions League Final and Nations League Finals

    • Disregarding Kane's chances of PB/G&A

    • Doubling MB over last year, which is where Pogba see's his biggest growth (even though his MB already factors in that he won the World Cup)

    • Dividing Kane's current growth percentage by 3

    • Decreasing Pogba's current decline percentage by a multiple of 3

    Even factoring in all of that... Kane still comes out on top. At a push, you could complain that Pogba should rise because of his MB winnings but last month Pogba won MB a number of times (9p MB), Kane didn't win any... Pogba still declined, Kane still increased and that's when Pogba had chances of PB that Kane didn't have.

    Please everyone... Poke flaws in this. It's by no means a perfect model. It's just an example based on the current data that we have, with some half decent assumptions factored in. Feel free to add in more assumptions and tweak the numbers to see where it comes out.

  • @Dan-The-Man
    Good post bud

  • @Dan-The-Man people are steadfast in there opinions & won't budge no matter what maths you throw at then.

    Best to just leave them to it - the older holders should do just fine as they should have built up a buffer of profit to negotiate any losses. It's the people buying now who have to accumulate 18p of capital appreciation just to cover the commission when sold. Their the ones in choppy water.

    Obviously, if you already hold Pogba, you want others to invest in your product - this is just human nature.

    So your not going to set out the potential pitfalls, only the potential upside - which is him staying or signing a new contract.

    At which point, I'll gladly re-join the boat ⛵ or train 🚂 whatever people want to call it. I've never hid this fact as his MB whilst still at Manchester United is unrivalled on the platform.

    But I don't have any intention being involved while the boat is on choppy waters for a measly 30-40p when his share price could fall by £1.50+

    It's outright bad business.

  • @Dan-The-Man

    Great bit of rationale Dan and I accept and appreciate all that you have stated, and I also agree with your evaluation.

    I hold Kane for capital appreciation, I do not hold or will be buying any Pogba shares but for the sake of balance any investor who has held Pogba shares for some time, and are sitting on a juicy profit, I understand why you would hold due to the potential rewards on offer over the summer due to MB, as you would have time to get out should his price tank.

    That said anyone considering buying Pogba at his current price must have balls of steel as the risk/reward ratio is far too high.

    Good luck to everyone who holds (you are braver than me)

  • Pogba is an absolute MB beast at Utd. But if leaves the Premier League, he’ll likely tank, with maybe 50% wiped off his value.

    Even if there’s only a 30% chance of him leaving, the risk is too high for me. I remember what happened to Coutinho after his transfer went through.

    Plus there is the issue that Pogba is actually not a particularly good footballer. I know that doesn’t matter for MB (in fact it may help at times), but I have a nagging feeling that it’ll affect his share price at some point.

    He reminds me of Mario Balotelli a bit - i.e. a problem child who can’t apply himself properly.

    Having said all of that, if I held him, there’s no way i’d sell yet. He’ll return plenty of MB with the “will he / won’t he leave” transfer speculation and there’ll be plenty of opportunities to sell over the next couple of months.

  • @Andy-M having got an ex ,who rattled your cage ?😄

  • @Le-Blanc I am thank you, are you, or are you happier jumping in with nothing to offer the debate. 🤡

  • That was a load of shit tho as kane only went up this month as he dropped so much previously on his injury.

  • @Earshavewalls yes dear.

  • Love it how some people pick up on spelling mistakes yet feel it's ok for people to swear and make personal comments just because someone has a different opinion. If you keep making statements that are statistically or mathematically incorrect expect to be corrected , no need to get your knickers in a twist.

  • @Vespasian32 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    That was a load of shit tho as kane only went up this month as he dropped so much previously on his injury.

    But on the same 1 monthly graph Pogba has fell from £8.20 to £7.75.

    Other than the obvious rise in Kane because he's coming back from injury you can select 101 other examples of people who have risen (without injury) in the past calendar month according to the player graphs.

    Anyway, signing off for the night as I'm ill. Play nice. 👍

  • @Vespasian32

    I already over compensated for that by dividing his growth by 3 and even more so by reducing Pogba's decline by 3 too but look at his graph... he's 35p higher than before the injury, so it's not like he declined then rose back to the same spot... the injury got in the way of his long term steady growth.

    In other words, if you took the numbers from the month before... he'd still be rising at the same rate only without the break for injury.


    Worth noting, Kane has been in steady growth for months. 0_1557947683884_Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 20.13.52.png

    The big dip, was when he went out injured for the rest of the season. Which hurt my portfolio for a few days... but instantly made him the safest bet on the index because he started rising straight away and nothing worse could happen to him.

  • @Dan-The-Man I agree stay clear of kane as there are far better dividend earners with higher yield like pogba... And if cap ap is your thing there are much cheaper players making far higher ROI.

  • I'm currently buying Pogba futures. Is this is a mistake? I keep asking myself this question, but proceeding anyway and here's why.

    I should say that I've sat on the fence over him for far too long. Always thinking he was overpriced, so I've eventually resigned myself to buy but only with dividends I win and sells I make. I have never deposited money to buy him and likely won't for the foreseeable future. There's something about re-investing dividends that makes me more comfortable with a higher level of risk.

    If he drops, so be it. It will only have a small impact on my portfolio. On the flip side, if he returns Divs over the summer, it's low returns but consistent and a 'safe' bet in my view. Who else can you say is more likely to be towards the top of the MB chart for the entire summer?

    My prediction with regards to his transfer? I think he'll stay. I said before that I can't see the Man Utd board sanctioning the sale of DDG and Pogba leaving in the same window. DDG looks more likely to me. Plus, Man Utd need the media attention he brings.

    After the summer, there will still be no shortage of media focus. Depending on how Utd start the season, there could either be fallouts and speculation over him and OGS or if they play well, maybe even PB to compliment some good media.

    Next summer, Euro 2020 and in three years, build up to WC 2022 with France as holders.

    If he moves, I'll just hold for the 'Pogba unsettled at R. Madrid' media and links back to the Prem. Long term (3 years) there is no way he won't increase above his current value at some point.

    Add on a couple of div increases FI will need to make in the next few years to the above and I'm confident with this strategy.

    Appreciate I'm entering at a high price and of course, we all wish we'd bought in sooner, but we live to learn. Credit to traders who bought low.

  • This is some good rationale @Dan-The-Man, and @ericali I understand why you’d think you it makes sense to miss out on 30-40p to avoid missing out on £1.50 (or probably even more judging by the reaction then overreaction in the market).
    Only 2 points that aren’t factored in to your thoughts currently in my opinion.

    1. Kane’s growth is factoring in him being fit for the champs league final and the nations league. If he isn’t, his price tanks. Pogba doesn’t on both counts, and is rising due to media coverage. The £8.35 price is false as this was at a peak for around 20 minutes during the bonus day, and he’s already fallen due to having no more games.
    2. While it is a risk that he will drop if/when he moves, we can have more confidence that this won’t be late in the window when a.) Man U find a suitable replacement and b.) the man who handles his transfers is allowed to handle transfers again in August. Therefore it’s a safer bet to hold Pogba until then as he will no doubt benefit from the bonus window & increase I media payouts, while staying out until Raiola can make his money out of this saga too.

    I agree, there is still a risk in holding but I’m confident that he will continue to rise until July. Therefore anyone getting in now can still benefit, and current holders like myself will continue to do so. Obviously I would say he has value as I hold, but that the whole point right? Holding players who you think will go up?

  • @Dan-The-Man you’re using returns from a summer when Kane captained England to a World Cup semi-final. You really think that’s applicable to now?

    The simple fact is Pogba’s dividend returns blow Kane’s out the water. I’ve shown that. They have done since the index has been around. It’s likely they will continue to do so as long as he remains at United. Especially this summer.

    You’ve picked a time period where Pog has declined due to links to Real whilst Kane has a surprise champions league final (he’s odds on to lose).

    We are talking about buying today and Pogba is undervalued if he remains at United. Growth has been held back by that potential move which is rational.

  • @Vespasian32 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man I agree stay clear of kane as there are far better dividend earners with higher yield like pogba... And if cap ap is your thing there are much cheaper players making far higher ROI.

    It's like you read the post but didn't understand it.

  • @Dan-The-Man it's like I understood perfectly and then cheekily made fun of your own contradictions...

Log in to reply