Pogba, Hold or sell



  • That was a load of shit tho as kane only went up this month as he dropped so much previously on his injury.



  • @Earshavewalls yes dear.



  • Love it how some people pick up on spelling mistakes yet feel it's ok for people to swear and make personal comments just because someone has a different opinion. If you keep making statements that are statistically or mathematically incorrect expect to be corrected , no need to get your knickers in a twist.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    That was a load of shit tho as kane only went up this month as he dropped so much previously on his injury.

    But on the same 1 monthly graph Pogba has fell from £8.20 to £7.75.

    Other than the obvious rise in Kane because he's coming back from injury you can select 101 other examples of people who have risen (without injury) in the past calendar month according to the player graphs.

    Anyway, signing off for the night as I'm ill. Play nice. 👍



  • @Vespasian32

    I already over compensated for that by dividing his growth by 3 and even more so by reducing Pogba's decline by 3 too but look at his graph... he's 35p higher than before the injury, so it's not like he declined then rose back to the same spot... the injury got in the way of his long term steady growth.

    In other words, if you took the numbers from the month before... he'd still be rising at the same rate only without the break for injury.

    AND...

    Worth noting, Kane has been in steady growth for months. 0_1557947683884_Screen Shot 2019-05-15 at 20.13.52.png

    The big dip, was when he went out injured for the rest of the season. Which hurt my portfolio for a few days... but instantly made him the safest bet on the index because he started rising straight away and nothing worse could happen to him.



  • @Dan-The-Man I agree stay clear of kane as there are far better dividend earners with higher yield like pogba... And if cap ap is your thing there are much cheaper players making far higher ROI.



  • I'm currently buying Pogba futures. Is this is a mistake? I keep asking myself this question, but proceeding anyway and here's why.

    I should say that I've sat on the fence over him for far too long. Always thinking he was overpriced, so I've eventually resigned myself to buy but only with dividends I win and sells I make. I have never deposited money to buy him and likely won't for the foreseeable future. There's something about re-investing dividends that makes me more comfortable with a higher level of risk.

    If he drops, so be it. It will only have a small impact on my portfolio. On the flip side, if he returns Divs over the summer, it's low returns but consistent and a 'safe' bet in my view. Who else can you say is more likely to be towards the top of the MB chart for the entire summer?

    My prediction with regards to his transfer? I think he'll stay. I said before that I can't see the Man Utd board sanctioning the sale of DDG and Pogba leaving in the same window. DDG looks more likely to me. Plus, Man Utd need the media attention he brings.

    After the summer, there will still be no shortage of media focus. Depending on how Utd start the season, there could either be fallouts and speculation over him and OGS or if they play well, maybe even PB to compliment some good media.

    Next summer, Euro 2020 and in three years, build up to WC 2022 with France as holders.

    If he moves, I'll just hold for the 'Pogba unsettled at R. Madrid' media and links back to the Prem. Long term (3 years) there is no way he won't increase above his current value at some point.

    Add on a couple of div increases FI will need to make in the next few years to the above and I'm confident with this strategy.

    Appreciate I'm entering at a high price and of course, we all wish we'd bought in sooner, but we live to learn. Credit to traders who bought low.



  • This is some good rationale @Dan-The-Man, and @ericali I understand why you’d think you it makes sense to miss out on 30-40p to avoid missing out on £1.50 (or probably even more judging by the reaction then overreaction in the market).
    Only 2 points that aren’t factored in to your thoughts currently in my opinion.

    1. Kane’s growth is factoring in him being fit for the champs league final and the nations league. If he isn’t, his price tanks. Pogba doesn’t on both counts, and is rising due to media coverage. The £8.35 price is false as this was at a peak for around 20 minutes during the bonus day, and he’s already fallen due to having no more games.
    2. While it is a risk that he will drop if/when he moves, we can have more confidence that this won’t be late in the window when a.) Man U find a suitable replacement and b.) the man who handles his transfers is allowed to handle transfers again in August. Therefore it’s a safer bet to hold Pogba until then as he will no doubt benefit from the bonus window & increase I media payouts, while staying out until Raiola can make his money out of this saga too.

    I agree, there is still a risk in holding but I’m confident that he will continue to rise until July. Therefore anyone getting in now can still benefit, and current holders like myself will continue to do so. Obviously I would say he has value as I hold, but that the whole point right? Holding players who you think will go up?



  • @Dan-The-Man you’re using returns from a summer when Kane captained England to a World Cup semi-final. You really think that’s applicable to now?

    The simple fact is Pogba’s dividend returns blow Kane’s out the water. I’ve shown that. They have done since the index has been around. It’s likely they will continue to do so as long as he remains at United. Especially this summer.

    You’ve picked a time period where Pog has declined due to links to Real whilst Kane has a surprise champions league final (he’s odds on to lose).

    We are talking about buying today and Pogba is undervalued if he remains at United. Growth has been held back by that potential move which is rational.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man I agree stay clear of kane as there are far better dividend earners with higher yield like pogba... And if cap ap is your thing there are much cheaper players making far higher ROI.

    It's like you read the post but didn't understand it.



  • @Dan-The-Man it's like I understood perfectly and then cheekily made fun of your own contradictions...



  • @Vespasian32 Which contradictions?



  • @PB-man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man you’re using returns from a summer when Kane captained England to a World Cup semi-final. You really think that’s applicable to now?

    This summer Kane captains the Nations League semi-final against Holland, every man and his dog will be boozed up for it and it's a week after him captaining Spurs in the Champions League, against Liverpool. It doesn't get much more high profile than that.

    Throw in Kane's return from injury, Van Dijk vs Kane, and you've got a large amount of media, during a time period where there's 5 media slots. It's safe to say, Kane will be living in the media from the night before the Champions League Final, to the day after he packs his England shirt away.

    The simple fact is Pogba’s dividend returns blow Kane’s out the water.

    Well they didn't blow Kane out of the water last summer... and Pogba won the world cup, tried to force a move to Barcelona and was stripped of Vice Captaincy by Jose... so why would this summer, where Pogba has nothing and Kane has huge match ups for his club & country... why would that result in a bigger difference than last year?

    You’ve picked a time period where Pog has declined due to links to Real whilst Kane has a surprise champions league final (he’s odds on to lose).

    Oh, so links to other clubs causes Pogba to decline does it? Every Pogba article for the next 2 months is going to be that. How far will he decline? And I picked the last month because it's the most recent and relevant.

    We are talking about buying today and Pogba is undervalued if he remains at United. Growth has been held back by that potential move which is rational.



  • Gents, I think Pogbagate has had its day.

    It's clear there is a difference of opinion, the reality is that nobody truly knows how things will pan out, so all posts are relevant and shouldn't be discounted.

    Time will tell on the longer term effects of the price of Pogba based on his MB income from TFR speculation but we can only speculate on that.

    If you hold then good luck, if not then don't worry about it.

    Just remember Michael Jackson was a great performer and apparently Fred West was a great builder but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Best of luck as always but please remember opinions are like arseholes......... we all have one



  • @Dan-The-Man you can’t seriously argue Kane is anywhere near Pogba in terms of media dividends. Look at the data. You’ve picked Harry’s best ever time period to compare to a fairly mediocre one for Pogba and Pog still returned more. I mean he was an England captain and Golden boot winner at a World Cup!

    I have plenty of Kane and he’s a good hold for the summer but there’s no comparison 90% of the time.

    The initial point was that if Pogba is still at United at the end of the summer he’s heavily undervalued.
    Comparison between Pogba’s and Kane’s prices and returns shows that.

    Pog has his price compressed currently by the transfer uncertainty. He stays he rises and you double win if you buy now and collect all those dividends (which yes I’d wager would be significantly more than Kane’s unless he scores the winner in the Champions League).

    That was the point I was making, he stays and you’ve picked up an undervalued player which is a scenario most were ignoring.



  • If pogba leaves he will still win more dividends than neymar next year.

    It's all about perception though isn't it and people thinking he'll drop will probably cause him to drop by like 3-4 pounds.

    If he stays he should in theory rise by 3 or 4 pounds very rapidly. His yield atm is 19%. That's triple Neymars!

    Whether you hold or not is basically comes down to whether you think he'll stay or not. (Or your self belief in timing your exit point. Gonna be a few more ups and downs to come yet.)



  • This thread is worse than FUCKING BREXIT!



  • @Ellisandro
    lol. Been a lot of shitposts but also some pretty deep analysis by some people. One of the more interesting threads around imo.
    However I'm a little bit scared for the 'i told you so' phase, could get real ugly, downvotes and everything.



  • @PB-man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man you can’t seriously argue Kane is anywhere near Pogba in terms of media dividends.

    I've never disputed that Pogba is the king of MB but earning more divs does not automatically mean earning more money.

    The Maths
    If you buy £1,000 of each player you get 208 Kane and 129 Pogba.

    If over the next 30 days, they both rise 50p, your Kane's become worth £1104, but your Pogba's only rise to £1064.50

    And lets say Kane picks up 10p worth of MB, Pogba would need 47p worth of MB to earn more money than Kane.

    Do you think Pogba will earn 4.7x more dividends than Kane?

    Pog has his price compressed currently by the transfer uncertainty. He stays he rises and you double win if you buy now and collect all those dividends (which yes I’d wager would be significantly more than Kane’s unless he scores the winner in the Champions League).

    That was the point I was making, he stays and you’ve picked up an undervalued player which is a scenario most were ignoring.



  • Hmmmm

    0_1557994088612_Screenshot_20190516-100741_Chrome Beta.jpg

    Just makes it slightly juicier.


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