Pogba, Hold or sell



  • @Dan-The-Man you’re using returns from a summer when Kane captained England to a World Cup semi-final. You really think that’s applicable to now?

    The simple fact is Pogba’s dividend returns blow Kane’s out the water. I’ve shown that. They have done since the index has been around. It’s likely they will continue to do so as long as he remains at United. Especially this summer.

    You’ve picked a time period where Pog has declined due to links to Real whilst Kane has a surprise champions league final (he’s odds on to lose).

    We are talking about buying today and Pogba is undervalued if he remains at United. Growth has been held back by that potential move which is rational.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man I agree stay clear of kane as there are far better dividend earners with higher yield like pogba... And if cap ap is your thing there are much cheaper players making far higher ROI.

    It's like you read the post but didn't understand it.



  • @Dan-The-Man it's like I understood perfectly and then cheekily made fun of your own contradictions...



  • @Vespasian32 Which contradictions?



  • @PB-man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man you’re using returns from a summer when Kane captained England to a World Cup semi-final. You really think that’s applicable to now?

    This summer Kane captains the Nations League semi-final against Holland, every man and his dog will be boozed up for it and it's a week after him captaining Spurs in the Champions League, against Liverpool. It doesn't get much more high profile than that.

    Throw in Kane's return from injury, Van Dijk vs Kane, and you've got a large amount of media, during a time period where there's 5 media slots. It's safe to say, Kane will be living in the media from the night before the Champions League Final, to the day after he packs his England shirt away.

    The simple fact is Pogba’s dividend returns blow Kane’s out the water.

    Well they didn't blow Kane out of the water last summer... and Pogba won the world cup, tried to force a move to Barcelona and was stripped of Vice Captaincy by Jose... so why would this summer, where Pogba has nothing and Kane has huge match ups for his club & country... why would that result in a bigger difference than last year?

    You’ve picked a time period where Pog has declined due to links to Real whilst Kane has a surprise champions league final (he’s odds on to lose).

    Oh, so links to other clubs causes Pogba to decline does it? Every Pogba article for the next 2 months is going to be that. How far will he decline? And I picked the last month because it's the most recent and relevant.

    We are talking about buying today and Pogba is undervalued if he remains at United. Growth has been held back by that potential move which is rational.



  • Gents, I think Pogbagate has had its day.

    It's clear there is a difference of opinion, the reality is that nobody truly knows how things will pan out, so all posts are relevant and shouldn't be discounted.

    Time will tell on the longer term effects of the price of Pogba based on his MB income from TFR speculation but we can only speculate on that.

    If you hold then good luck, if not then don't worry about it.

    Just remember Michael Jackson was a great performer and apparently Fred West was a great builder but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    Best of luck as always but please remember opinions are like arseholes......... we all have one



  • @Dan-The-Man you can’t seriously argue Kane is anywhere near Pogba in terms of media dividends. Look at the data. You’ve picked Harry’s best ever time period to compare to a fairly mediocre one for Pogba and Pog still returned more. I mean he was an England captain and Golden boot winner at a World Cup!

    I have plenty of Kane and he’s a good hold for the summer but there’s no comparison 90% of the time.

    The initial point was that if Pogba is still at United at the end of the summer he’s heavily undervalued.
    Comparison between Pogba’s and Kane’s prices and returns shows that.

    Pog has his price compressed currently by the transfer uncertainty. He stays he rises and you double win if you buy now and collect all those dividends (which yes I’d wager would be significantly more than Kane’s unless he scores the winner in the Champions League).

    That was the point I was making, he stays and you’ve picked up an undervalued player which is a scenario most were ignoring.



  • If pogba leaves he will still win more dividends than neymar next year.

    It's all about perception though isn't it and people thinking he'll drop will probably cause him to drop by like 3-4 pounds.

    If he stays he should in theory rise by 3 or 4 pounds very rapidly. His yield atm is 19%. That's triple Neymars!

    Whether you hold or not is basically comes down to whether you think he'll stay or not. (Or your self belief in timing your exit point. Gonna be a few more ups and downs to come yet.)



  • This thread is worse than FUCKING BREXIT!



  • @Ellisandro
    lol. Been a lot of shitposts but also some pretty deep analysis by some people. One of the more interesting threads around imo.
    However I'm a little bit scared for the 'i told you so' phase, could get real ugly, downvotes and everything.



  • @PB-man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Dan-The-Man you can’t seriously argue Kane is anywhere near Pogba in terms of media dividends.

    I've never disputed that Pogba is the king of MB but earning more divs does not automatically mean earning more money.

    The Maths
    If you buy £1,000 of each player you get 208 Kane and 129 Pogba.

    If over the next 30 days, they both rise 50p, your Kane's become worth £1104, but your Pogba's only rise to £1064.50

    And lets say Kane picks up 10p worth of MB, Pogba would need 47p worth of MB to earn more money than Kane.

    Do you think Pogba will earn 4.7x more dividends than Kane?

    Pog has his price compressed currently by the transfer uncertainty. He stays he rises and you double win if you buy now and collect all those dividends (which yes I’d wager would be significantly more than Kane’s unless he scores the winner in the Champions League).

    That was the point I was making, he stays and you’ve picked up an undervalued player which is a scenario most were ignoring.



  • Hmmmm

    0_1557994088612_Screenshot_20190516-100741_Chrome Beta.jpg

    Just makes it slightly juicier.



  • Pogba is in the promotional campaign for the new Man U kit. Must mean he is staying 😉



  • @TraderJ @Andy-M

    Don't confuse a savvy media personality with hope that he's staying.

    "Hey Pogba... do you want to be in this campaign with your face splattered everywhere"



  • @Dan-The-Man just a joke mate, calm down. Thought the winky face might have given it away, but clearly not. I know it doesn't mean anything but it spices things up :)



  • @TraderJ

    I too made a joke... what, you work alone here?



  • Having been reading this thread for a while now over the course of a few days the first thing I have to say is y'all need to chill out and show each other some respect. There any many users here with many different players in their portfolios bought at different times for different prices for different reasons. Just because User A thinks selling Player A for Price A is a good idea, doesn't mean that fits with User B's strategy. It's great that such a lengthy thread is on-going, but let's not behave like children in the playground please. I'm here to make money, talk football and occasionally have some banter. There are a few in here who have crossed the line in my personal opinion.

    @Dan-The-Man and @Ericali I have no complaints with your theories and it's great to see people using evidence and maths to back-up their opinions. Your tactic is your tactic and it's clearly worked out well for you both - especially where Kane is concerned Dan. I think anyone who DOESN'T have Kane in their portfolio is missing a trick personally, but each to their own (I even said so in this comment here dated 12th April https://forums.footballindex.co.uk/topic/7341/kane/52 )

    Personally, I hold 5 times as many Kane as I do Pogba. I'm 91pps up on Pogba in cap-app alone, and 83pps up on Kane in cap-app alone. Seeing as though pretty much every transfer market/window in the world other than ours doesn't open for another 2 weeks, I won't be selling Pogba just yet. I do have an exit strategy in place though 👍



  • @Dan-The-Man 😴😴😴😴😴



  • @LukeMalla It's not about when it opens mate, when it closes should be the date to keep an eye on, IF Pogba was going to leave M.U then it would be a long old process, hence the reason he should rake in a fair few MB's.



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