Pogba, Hold or sell



  • @FI-expert said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    https://www.skysports.com/share/11743201

    Sky sports are a reliable source
    Maybe they will do a deal with him to stay 1 more season
    Either way, I trust this
    I’ve just brought 50 pogba but have no more money
    When I get paid on 28th it’s all going on pogba
    I think he’ll smash the £9 mark !!! 💰💰💰

    To get to £9, if my quick Excel calculations are right, he will need £1,577,421 to be invested in him from this point (£6.79).

    I think that will take a while.



  • Unless older traders just keep topping up I can’t see new traders buying pogba to be honest, for one thing it completely narrows your trading stimulus down as once you hold him that’s it he’s a long termer because the commission on him will kill you.
    If you want to ‘play’ football index you need to go to the cheaper market and that’s where most traders will be I think.
    Even salah is £2 cheaper and he is a great divs earner, Pogba really has to go some to warrant an increase.



  • 365 days top div earners

    0_1560765802693_upload-f6b7ecd1-6302-4e42-9056-ce1e436a7b2b



  • @kristiang85 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @FI-expert said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    https://www.skysports.com/share/11743201

    Sky sports are a reliable source
    Maybe they will do a deal with him to stay 1 more season
    Either way, I trust this
    I’ve just brought 50 pogba but have no more money
    When I get paid on 28th it’s all going on pogba
    I think he’ll smash the £9 mark !!! 💰💰💰

    To get to £9, if my quick Excel calculations are right, he will need £1,577,421 to be invested in him from this point (£6.79).

    I think that will take a while.

    nah mate - I get my annual bonus soon.



  • @B1992G Take out media and Pogba is average at best. Historically Media magnets last a season before the spotlight moves onto another player , nothing to suggest Pogba will be any different. At his current price if you purchase you need media to warrant it, If his media drops off at all you have an investment on an overvalued player. If you check his PB yield he wasn't even in the top 25 last season suggesting plenty of value elsewhere that is less risky IMO.



  • @fantasyindex you’re not wrong, media is one of the key drivers of the index but if you take out media I think you’ll find that most players on the platform drop significantly, not just Pogba. The thing is though, there are only a small number of footballers who are also a brand. Beckham was most famous for it, look how much coverage he still gets even though he’s not played for Man Utd in ages. Ronaldo is the same, still loads of coverage long after he left for Real, and even Juve.
    For me, Pogba is the biggest brand in the PL and one of the biggest in world football. That’s why he can still demand high wages, and why Man Utd can’t afford to lose him as well as the money from the champs league this season.



  • This post is deleted!


  • Pogba has his own emoji... that's worth £1 value alone!



  • @fantasyindex

    5th best...

    0_1560777316552_upload-aa432653-ff99-4d08-985b-6be9bdb35489



  • Top in MB and 5th best in PB. That's value isn't it?



  • @fantasyindex said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @B1992G Take out media and Pogba is average at best. Historically Media magnets last a season before the spotlight moves onto another player, nothing to suggest Pogba will be any different.

    I don't entirely agree with you on this one.

    Pogba isn't a one-season-wonder when it comes to MB. According to Scout, he was the 5th best MB for 2017/18 season and the 4th best in the 2016/17. So I don't think we can assume that they will just stop writing about him.

    The press will latch on to another star for sure and that star might even eclipse Pogba in the media bonus but that doesn't mean they'll drop Pogba any time soon. He's still giant name and even with a transfer away, they'll cover:

    • his unveiling,
    • his debut
    • his first goal
    • his progress from time-to-time,
    • when he throws a temper tantrum or party
    • his progress for France in the Euro's
    • comparisons with whoever United's replacement
    • "Was Ole right to sell him?" (especially when they replace Ole)
    • his Champions League progress

    Not to mention all the stories dissecting the summer transfers, where there's a half decent chance he's the biggest move of the summer. And that's just if he leaves. If he stays, there'll be the on going Man Utd antics. Him vs Ole, etc.

    He might become the next Balotelli and fade in to relative obscurity but I think we'd be safe in assuming he's a media attraction until at the very least, the end of the Euro tournament.

    The questions about Pogba have always been...

    • Will his dividends outpace his price crash?
    • Are there safer/more lucrative options on the market?


  • @B1992G not for PB yield!



  • @B1992G that's for PB not PB yield where he was outside the top 25! It's a decision for the individual as to how they use stats and measure value. As with all things football everyone has an opinion and mine is he doesn't return enough PB to warrant his price and if you lose any media at all PB becomes more important if you are looks Ng at dividends alone. CA with Pogba may or may not grow in the Short to Medium term and will depend on his media return come the new season as his PB is poor for a player of his price.



  • I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?



  • @Le-Blanc I think with players like pogba on FI when they start plummeting you will have people who start buying him! Look at Neymar when he was accused of rape he plummeted to £6.50 then recovered to below £7 and now look at him still highest player on the index above £7and rising today. People moan but maybe they are waiting to jump on!



  • @Le-Blanc said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    I said the same as you @Le-Blanc , pointing out that most of the nervy traders will have already bailed.

    What I think will happen is, rather than Pogba's price crashing when he moves, it will drop ever so slightly and then stabilise.
    The index is growing all the time and because other prices have already closed the gap on Pogba'a price (partly due to his significant drop lately), he's going to appear reasonable value. Especially to new investors when they look back at his last 12 month dividends return.

    I'd be VERY surprised if Pogba fell below £6.
    But if he did, it wouldn't last long as shrewd investors pile in!



  • @ScouseSte said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Le-Blanc said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    I said the same as you @Le-Blanc , pointing out that most of the nervy traders will have already bailed.

    What I think will happen is, rather than Pogba's price crashing when he moves, it will drop ever so slightly and then stabilise.
    The index is growing all the time and because other prices have already closed the gap on Pogba'a price (partly due to his significant drop lately), he's going to appear reasonable value. Especially to new investors when they look back at his last 12 month dividends return.

    I'd be VERY surprised if Pogba fell below £6.
    But if he did, it wouldn't last long as shrewd investors pile in!

    I agree. If the theory holds any water then I would say the potential upside is far greater than the potential downside.....which is why I guess I'm one of those who will continue to hold in any event.



  • @Le-Blanc

    I still hold him but I'm not so sure. I think a lot of people who hold don't believe that Pogba will leave Man United this summer. If they are right then its lots of MBs and a price rise. This is why I still hold. However if he did actually leave I can see another steep drop. Haven't decided what I will do and its all part of the risk/gamble of keeping him. 9p in dividends in the last 3 days and looking like at least another 2p today is encouraging though.



  • It's starting to follow the Hazard pattern...maybe it's all part of a plan to get Pogba next year. Make him aware of the move now get him unhappy. Utd will want to keep and only sell at a big profit. Real can't afford him and Hazard in one window and others... I see it mirroring the Hazard deal, which means dividends for a year and some cap app after the spanish deadline passes./pog says he will stay.



  • The likeliest outcome with the bookies has gone back to him staying at evens, he drifted to 2/1 to stay on Sunday as the news broke. Let's say the odds actually are 50/50 on him staying, you're getting a great price on Pogba right now. If he stays he goes to £8.50+ and wins loads of media madness dividends, if he leaves he goes to around £6.00 winning loads of dividends again. The potential gains significantly outweigh the potential losses at this point in my opinion.

    Edit, 8/11 odds to stay now a few hours later.


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