Pogba, Hold or sell



  • @fantasyindex

    5th best...

    0_1560777316552_upload-aa432653-ff99-4d08-985b-6be9bdb35489



  • Top in MB and 5th best in PB. That's value isn't it?



  • @fantasyindex said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @B1992G Take out media and Pogba is average at best. Historically Media magnets last a season before the spotlight moves onto another player, nothing to suggest Pogba will be any different.

    I don't entirely agree with you on this one.

    Pogba isn't a one-season-wonder when it comes to MB. According to Scout, he was the 5th best MB for 2017/18 season and the 4th best in the 2016/17. So I don't think we can assume that they will just stop writing about him.

    The press will latch on to another star for sure and that star might even eclipse Pogba in the media bonus but that doesn't mean they'll drop Pogba any time soon. He's still giant name and even with a transfer away, they'll cover:

    • his unveiling,
    • his debut
    • his first goal
    • his progress from time-to-time,
    • when he throws a temper tantrum or party
    • his progress for France in the Euro's
    • comparisons with whoever United's replacement
    • "Was Ole right to sell him?" (especially when they replace Ole)
    • his Champions League progress

    Not to mention all the stories dissecting the summer transfers, where there's a half decent chance he's the biggest move of the summer. And that's just if he leaves. If he stays, there'll be the on going Man Utd antics. Him vs Ole, etc.

    He might become the next Balotelli and fade in to relative obscurity but I think we'd be safe in assuming he's a media attraction until at the very least, the end of the Euro tournament.

    The questions about Pogba have always been...

    • Will his dividends outpace his price crash?
    • Are there safer/more lucrative options on the market?


  • @B1992G not for PB yield!



  • @B1992G that's for PB not PB yield where he was outside the top 25! It's a decision for the individual as to how they use stats and measure value. As with all things football everyone has an opinion and mine is he doesn't return enough PB to warrant his price and if you lose any media at all PB becomes more important if you are looks Ng at dividends alone. CA with Pogba may or may not grow in the Short to Medium term and will depend on his media return come the new season as his PB is poor for a player of his price.



  • I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?



  • @Le-Blanc I think with players like pogba on FI when they start plummeting you will have people who start buying him! Look at Neymar when he was accused of rape he plummeted to £6.50 then recovered to below £7 and now look at him still highest player on the index above £7and rising today. People moan but maybe they are waiting to jump on!



  • @Le-Blanc said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    I said the same as you @Le-Blanc , pointing out that most of the nervy traders will have already bailed.

    What I think will happen is, rather than Pogba's price crashing when he moves, it will drop ever so slightly and then stabilise.
    The index is growing all the time and because other prices have already closed the gap on Pogba'a price (partly due to his significant drop lately), he's going to appear reasonable value. Especially to new investors when they look back at his last 12 month dividends return.

    I'd be VERY surprised if Pogba fell below £6.
    But if he did, it wouldn't last long as shrewd investors pile in!



  • @ScouseSte said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Le-Blanc said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    I said the same as you @Le-Blanc , pointing out that most of the nervy traders will have already bailed.

    What I think will happen is, rather than Pogba's price crashing when he moves, it will drop ever so slightly and then stabilise.
    The index is growing all the time and because other prices have already closed the gap on Pogba'a price (partly due to his significant drop lately), he's going to appear reasonable value. Especially to new investors when they look back at his last 12 month dividends return.

    I'd be VERY surprised if Pogba fell below £6.
    But if he did, it wouldn't last long as shrewd investors pile in!

    I agree. If the theory holds any water then I would say the potential upside is far greater than the potential downside.....which is why I guess I'm one of those who will continue to hold in any event.



  • @Le-Blanc

    I still hold him but I'm not so sure. I think a lot of people who hold don't believe that Pogba will leave Man United this summer. If they are right then its lots of MBs and a price rise. This is why I still hold. However if he did actually leave I can see another steep drop. Haven't decided what I will do and its all part of the risk/gamble of keeping him. 9p in dividends in the last 3 days and looking like at least another 2p today is encouraging though.



  • It's starting to follow the Hazard pattern...maybe it's all part of a plan to get Pogba next year. Make him aware of the move now get him unhappy. Utd will want to keep and only sell at a big profit. Real can't afford him and Hazard in one window and others... I see it mirroring the Hazard deal, which means dividends for a year and some cap app after the spanish deadline passes./pog says he will stay.



  • The likeliest outcome with the bookies has gone back to him staying at evens, he drifted to 2/1 to stay on Sunday as the news broke. Let's say the odds actually are 50/50 on him staying, you're getting a great price on Pogba right now. If he stays he goes to £8.50+ and wins loads of media madness dividends, if he leaves he goes to around £6.00 winning loads of dividends again. The potential gains significantly outweigh the potential losses at this point in my opinion.

    Edit, 8/11 odds to stay now a few hours later.



  • @Nally said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    The likeliest outcome with the bookies has gone back to him staying at evens, he drifted to 2/1 to stay on Sunday as the news broke. Let's say the odds actually are 50/50 on him staying, you're getting a great price on Pogba right now. If he stays he goes to £8.50+ and wins loads of media madness dividends, if he leaves he goes to around £6.00 winning loads of dividends again. The potential gains significantly outweigh the potential losses at this point in my opinion.

    What are you basing that £6.00 guess on?



  • @Dan-The-Man on him being the all time leader of dividends won and being a good age still at 26, I still think he'd be a media magnet and a strong PB player. If hazard is £4.50 after his move is sealed I think it's fair to argue that a player who's won over twice the amount of his all time dividends and is over 2 years younger should be around £1.50 more.



  • 0_1560866303168_upload-eac3c6c7-83ac-4b0e-80f2-d23fdb3b7568



  • @Ellisandro

    Did you create that just for me.

    Aw dude, that's so sweet.

    But er... no.



  • @ScouseSte Just a point about the Hazzard price

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    Not sure about his price rising since his transfer to Madrid.

    26/5 . £4.83 . Chelsea player
    13/6 . £4.58 . Unveiled at Madrid
    Todays price . £4.39.

    Unless I have missed something that is a steady decline, where is the rise?



  • This post is deleted!


  • @Long-Haul-Col said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @ScouseSte Just a point about the Hazzard price

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    Not sure about his price rising since his transfer to Madrid.

    26/5 . £4.83 . Chelsea player
    13/6 . £4.58 . Unveiled at Madrid
    Todays price . £4.39.

    Unless I have missed something that is a steady decline, where is the rise?

    Initially rose.

    He's now falling, as expected, in line with most players who are also non-active in competitive games and not involved in transfer speculation.

    My point was, his "crash" happened in the 4 weeks leading up to the transfer and not the second he put pen to paper - this is similar to Pogba I suspect



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Ellisandro

    Did you create that just for me.

    Aw dude, that's so sweet.

    But er... no.

    Nope just generally, you've not made 400 posts on this have you? I'm not sure who's left on the fence though? Those who hold will hold, those who sold have sold. Nuff said.


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