Pogba, Hold or sell



  • @Le-Blanc said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    I said the same as you @Le-Blanc , pointing out that most of the nervy traders will have already bailed.

    What I think will happen is, rather than Pogba's price crashing when he moves, it will drop ever so slightly and then stabilise.
    The index is growing all the time and because other prices have already closed the gap on Pogba'a price (partly due to his significant drop lately), he's going to appear reasonable value. Especially to new investors when they look back at his last 12 month dividends return.

    I'd be VERY surprised if Pogba fell below £6.
    But if he did, it wouldn't last long as shrewd investors pile in!



  • @ScouseSte said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Le-Blanc said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    I was thinking......no really. Will The Pog really plummet that far if he moves? Is it possible that the majority of those who are nervous about his future price in those circumstances have already left him and that therefore such an eventuality is already priced in? What do you think?

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    I said the same as you @Le-Blanc , pointing out that most of the nervy traders will have already bailed.

    What I think will happen is, rather than Pogba's price crashing when he moves, it will drop ever so slightly and then stabilise.
    The index is growing all the time and because other prices have already closed the gap on Pogba'a price (partly due to his significant drop lately), he's going to appear reasonable value. Especially to new investors when they look back at his last 12 month dividends return.

    I'd be VERY surprised if Pogba fell below £6.
    But if he did, it wouldn't last long as shrewd investors pile in!

    I agree. If the theory holds any water then I would say the potential upside is far greater than the potential downside.....which is why I guess I'm one of those who will continue to hold in any event.



  • @Le-Blanc

    I still hold him but I'm not so sure. I think a lot of people who hold don't believe that Pogba will leave Man United this summer. If they are right then its lots of MBs and a price rise. This is why I still hold. However if he did actually leave I can see another steep drop. Haven't decided what I will do and its all part of the risk/gamble of keeping him. 9p in dividends in the last 3 days and looking like at least another 2p today is encouraging though.



  • It's starting to follow the Hazard pattern...maybe it's all part of a plan to get Pogba next year. Make him aware of the move now get him unhappy. Utd will want to keep and only sell at a big profit. Real can't afford him and Hazard in one window and others... I see it mirroring the Hazard deal, which means dividends for a year and some cap app after the spanish deadline passes./pog says he will stay.



  • The likeliest outcome with the bookies has gone back to him staying at evens, he drifted to 2/1 to stay on Sunday as the news broke. Let's say the odds actually are 50/50 on him staying, you're getting a great price on Pogba right now. If he stays he goes to £8.50+ and wins loads of media madness dividends, if he leaves he goes to around £6.00 winning loads of dividends again. The potential gains significantly outweigh the potential losses at this point in my opinion.

    Edit, 8/11 odds to stay now a few hours later.



  • @Nally said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    The likeliest outcome with the bookies has gone back to him staying at evens, he drifted to 2/1 to stay on Sunday as the news broke. Let's say the odds actually are 50/50 on him staying, you're getting a great price on Pogba right now. If he stays he goes to £8.50+ and wins loads of media madness dividends, if he leaves he goes to around £6.00 winning loads of dividends again. The potential gains significantly outweigh the potential losses at this point in my opinion.

    What are you basing that £6.00 guess on?



  • @Dan-The-Man on him being the all time leader of dividends won and being a good age still at 26, I still think he'd be a media magnet and a strong PB player. If hazard is £4.50 after his move is sealed I think it's fair to argue that a player who's won over twice the amount of his all time dividends and is over 2 years younger should be around £1.50 more.



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  • @Ellisandro

    Did you create that just for me.

    Aw dude, that's so sweet.

    But er... no.



  • @ScouseSte Just a point about the Hazzard price

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    Not sure about his price rising since his transfer to Madrid.

    26/5 . £4.83 . Chelsea player
    13/6 . £4.58 . Unveiled at Madrid
    Todays price . £4.39.

    Unless I have missed something that is a steady decline, where is the rise?



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  • @Long-Haul-Col said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @ScouseSte Just a point about the Hazzard price

    It's not a bad theory actually - I predicted something similar about Hazard and since he signed on the dotted line for Madrid he actually ROSE in price (contrary to many predictions).

    Not sure about his price rising since his transfer to Madrid.

    26/5 . £4.83 . Chelsea player
    13/6 . £4.58 . Unveiled at Madrid
    Todays price . £4.39.

    Unless I have missed something that is a steady decline, where is the rise?

    Initially rose.

    He's now falling, as expected, in line with most players who are also non-active in competitive games and not involved in transfer speculation.

    My point was, his "crash" happened in the 4 weeks leading up to the transfer and not the second he put pen to paper - this is similar to Pogba I suspect



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @Ellisandro

    Did you create that just for me.

    Aw dude, that's so sweet.

    But er... no.

    Nope just generally, you've not made 400 posts on this have you? I'm not sure who's left on the fence though? Those who hold will hold, those who sold have sold. Nuff said.



  • @Ellisandro

    We shouldn't treat this like it's a set in stone situation.

    Market circumstances change on a constant basis as should our views on weather or not a player is worth buying when more information is made available.

    For example, @Nally 's, point about Hazard, isn't completely without merit. (Though I suspect he's judging things a little prematurely and not entirely factoring in Man Utd's role in Pogba's hold on the media.)



  • @Dan-The-Man Agreed, i think my brexit weariness has just rubbed of on this topic.

    I sold mine early (months back) and won't look to buy back in as until he's at pre-season he's a flaky mofo!



  • On top of the MB again now. Could be the 4th day on the bounce! :D



  • @Cadbury1 choo choo!!



  • Just revealed that his desired location is Juventus over Real Madrid according to sky in Italy



  • @Vespasian32

    Your Pulisic comment earlier made me think about this exchange from earlier in this thread, where I said...

    "300 x Pogba = 1455 Pulisic
    If Pulisic goes up 20%... Pogba has to double his value. I know which one seems more likely to me."

    To which you replied...

    "defo 300 Pogba"

    This was just before Pogba peaked at £8.36, back when Pulisic was around the £1.40 price point.

    If you were to IS Pogba right now, it would have cost you £2 per share. If you were to IS Pulisic right now you'd be up over 60p.

    So... Let's see just how wrong you were.

    300 x -£2 = -£600
    1455 x 60p = £873

    Which means you were wrong to the tune of £1473. Oh wait. Silly me... I forgot you've won 39p worth of dividends...

    0.39 x 300 = £117 (impressive)

    So that means you were wrong to the tune of £1356

    Just saying!

    :)



  • @Dan-The-Man haha you say like your timeliness are the only ones that exist... If you say I said that before pogba spiked... What makes you think I would hold? I don't have pogba... I made over £1000 on him and sold after the split. I'd take 300 pogba over Pulisic any day of the week tho. Even now. But remember it's a 3 year hold and can sell at any point in that 3 years.. Not just when it suits you. In the time you've had Pulisic I more than doubled my money on vanaken, El Ghazi and murgia. I also bought 1000 neymar at 6.92... If u want to dig up the neymar thread... That was about 3 weeks ago... Showing as £190 divs won but I think some of that reappeared from a previous hold of him so don't know how much is from the last couple weeks but he's had mb every day this week i think. And 34p cap ap... £340.
    Not sure you ever put your money where your mouth is or make people money? Just tell people who not to buy?


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