Pogba, Hold or sell



  • When does Pogba's price hit the right risk v reward balance to make him a buy again?

    If he goes another £1/£1.50 drop plus MB wins to off set some what til the press move on, he will still win MB at another club. The press will either talk about how well he is doing away from United or he moved and can't cut it there. Just no where near the same MB win rate as at United.

    If he stays because United don't want to sell maybe a £1/£1.50 rise, but with today's comments we could be looking at 6 months of solid MB scores. The press won't let go of that bone even after the window closes. I'm thinking either Coutinho style and he goes in Jan or Ronaldo where United say have a pay increase, give us one more season and we won't stand in the way of you going if the still want next summer.

    I won't say Rooney style of "I'm leaving, because you are not investing in the playing staff" then sign for more money, and everything is forgotten. This Pogba saga doesn't have the same feel.

    Simon Stone, who is one of the most trusted Manchester United journalist, and is well connected in the club said today.

    "Might be posturing on all sides but my understanding is that Man Utd believe Pogba will still be at Old Trafford next season."

    It feels we could be getting near the point where reward out weighs risk. However there are players you way less volatile, where you won't get big spikes either up or down. Even so I am thinking of buying, I might just waiting a few more days to see how this starts to fold.

    Opinions?



  • @Misto I only have 18 shares in pogba so pretty neutral about the hold. I bought in at 3.83 (equivalent) so he really owes me nothing. For me a large reason for his drop is the repeated advice to sell. I must admit that i also thought of selling a couple of days ago. I still expect him to fall further based on this so I suppose maybe I should sell. This was like pre-oshare split when everyone said he would rise so bought in and his price went up. His actual chance of PB/MB never increased.

    If Pogba falls go the £5 mark that some people are suggesting then there will be clear value. I actually think he will receive considerably more PB than people are expecting. Given how poorly he played last season you would expect him to do better on MB if he were to move.

    Once again it comes down to %ROI and what people would be happy to make. Given his price is still £6.70+ there must still be some big users who are happy to take the dividends.



  • @Misto

    If we accept that this will be a drawn out saga then there will be a significant amount of MB to be had over the next 6 weeks. Then there will be in all probability periods where his price falls as it looks like he will move then there will be periods where his price rises because he looks like he stays. Therefore wether he stays or goes there will be opportunity to profit and if he stays the profit will be huge.

    Personally I think he will still be at united until at least the Christmas transfer window so have today added more futures at what I consider a value price.

    I will use dividends to add futures in other players who I believe would rise if he left to try to reduce risk and as I own a relatively large amount this does help.



  • @NewUser731 I wouldn’t class myself as a big Pogba holder but I do have a few hundred and have been happy with the dividend return - even with the drops over the last month the return he has given me since I bought 9 months ago and topped up in Jan have covered them (albeit only just now). I must admit to being concerned about his comments and I hold my hands up to being biased in my opinion as a holder but I’m still not convinced he will go. Mainly because Woodward doesn’t want to sell, the Glazers don’t need to and I just cannot see where Real will get the £150m + £300k per week after spending so much money. Added to this the possibilities that Neymar and Mbappe may still be available and a Pogba buy would count RM out of running for 2 arguably bigger worldwide stars (Not to mention ones who are actually needed in that team), I think it has the legs to rumble on through the summer. I agree with @misto that the Ronaldo option is on the table - stay one more season and leave with a blessing rather than forcing the move.



  • @GregF my thought though is leaving UTD going to be the absolute cliff edge that people are suggesting? The British press are going to track him if he leaves, he will be at a Spanish Giant, which the British press love, he has the Champions League and he has Euro 2020. So for me his value has another year in it.

    I'm certainly not going to be buying more of him at his current price because he is more likely to drop than rise at the moment but I would certainly consider buying more if he was to fall to a level that represented value.



  • @NewUser731 it’s a good question. I think the drop offs for most users have already happened, especially after the last day or two so I don’t think it will be Coutinho-esque . Look at Hazard, he was bought in the last month for summer divs and he dropped 10-15% when the transfer happened. At most I think a transfer would be 10% drop given the number of traders who have already jumped, but if he stays he now has potential for a good £2 rise on top of the dividend return over the summer.
    I think someone mentioned before about Warren Buffet investing in airlines after 9/11 knowing they were a sure thing at a bad time. Pog & dividend returns are a sure thing, it just depends whether they are Media heavy at Man Utd or PB heavy at Real I suppose...



  • I presume this means they actually want him to stay or they just want to get top dollar for him.

    https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11667/11743201/paul-pogba-expected-to-stay-at-manchester-united



  • @NewUser731 I think they do expect him to stay for another season however a player with characteristics like pogba could easily refuse to play and strike , we already saw he was bigger than mourinho



  • What do United fans think? Do they want him to stay? To an outsider it seems to me, he could be the root cause of their problems. If I was OGS, I think I would want him out along with sanshez and Co and have a fresh start with players who want to be there.

    I have been brought up to despise United so on that front, I would like him to stay because a pissed off pogba is just going to drag them down. They would be far better taking the 100m.



  • @Misto I am holding 200 shares that I haven't held long so haven't made much dividends yet and have a fair bit to lose on Pogba, he is about 12% of my port.

    I think this is going to be a Ronaldo type transfer, one more season and leave with the clubs blessing. Lots of MB all summer, share price rises, better PB next season, a good Euros followed by a big transfer next summer.

    Edit: Plus with VAR and handball rules changing he will be getting 12 or more extra pens next season.



  • 0_1560759640717_Screenshot_20190617_091901.jpg



  • @mike778 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    What do United fans think? Do they want him to stay? To an outsider it seems to me, he could be the root cause of their problems. If I was OGS, I think I would want him out along with sanshez and Co and have a fresh start with players who want to be there.

    I have been brought up to despise United so on that front, I would like him to stay because a pissed off pogba is just going to drag them down. They would be far better taking the 100m.

    We have a similar up bringing in that sense 😀



  • https://www.skysports.com/share/11743201

    Sky sports are a reliable source
    Maybe they will do a deal with him to stay 1 more season
    Either way, I trust this
    I’ve just brought 50 pogba but have no more money
    When I get paid on 28th it’s all going on pogba
    I think he’ll smash the £9 mark !!! 💰💰💰



  • @FI-expert £9 seems a bit optimistic to me. If he stays at United there will be plenty of people buying back in, but in think there will be a few wary people (probably like myself) who will sell at the right price and look for a more stable option.



  • @FI-expert said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    https://www.skysports.com/share/11743201

    Sky sports are a reliable source
    Maybe they will do a deal with him to stay 1 more season
    Either way, I trust this
    I’ve just brought 50 pogba but have no more money
    When I get paid on 28th it’s all going on pogba
    I think he’ll smash the £9 mark !!! 💰💰💰

    To get to £9, if my quick Excel calculations are right, he will need £1,577,421 to be invested in him from this point (£6.79).

    I think that will take a while.



  • Unless older traders just keep topping up I can’t see new traders buying pogba to be honest, for one thing it completely narrows your trading stimulus down as once you hold him that’s it he’s a long termer because the commission on him will kill you.
    If you want to ‘play’ football index you need to go to the cheaper market and that’s where most traders will be I think.
    Even salah is £2 cheaper and he is a great divs earner, Pogba really has to go some to warrant an increase.



  • 365 days top div earners

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  • @kristiang85 said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    @FI-expert said in Pogba, Hold or sell:

    https://www.skysports.com/share/11743201

    Sky sports are a reliable source
    Maybe they will do a deal with him to stay 1 more season
    Either way, I trust this
    I’ve just brought 50 pogba but have no more money
    When I get paid on 28th it’s all going on pogba
    I think he’ll smash the £9 mark !!! 💰💰💰

    To get to £9, if my quick Excel calculations are right, he will need £1,577,421 to be invested in him from this point (£6.79).

    I think that will take a while.

    nah mate - I get my annual bonus soon.



  • @B1992G Take out media and Pogba is average at best. Historically Media magnets last a season before the spotlight moves onto another player , nothing to suggest Pogba will be any different. At his current price if you purchase you need media to warrant it, If his media drops off at all you have an investment on an overvalued player. If you check his PB yield he wasn't even in the top 25 last season suggesting plenty of value elsewhere that is less risky IMO.



  • @fantasyindex you’re not wrong, media is one of the key drivers of the index but if you take out media I think you’ll find that most players on the platform drop significantly, not just Pogba. The thing is though, there are only a small number of footballers who are also a brand. Beckham was most famous for it, look how much coverage he still gets even though he’s not played for Man Utd in ages. Ronaldo is the same, still loads of coverage long after he left for Real, and even Juve.
    For me, Pogba is the biggest brand in the PL and one of the biggest in world football. That’s why he can still demand high wages, and why Man Utd can’t afford to lose him as well as the money from the champs league this season.


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