Advice for the unknown

  • Hi all, new to the forum but have been quietly watching for months. I have been on FI since jan. I would like some advice from some of the traders who were involved through last summer.

    I have a very diverse port, to catch the trends. However i am struggling to work out when to sell my transfer spec players. I have some which may transfer and have some that are just for the links Normally i take FIGs advice and look at there current price and ask myself would i buy them for this. But transfer spec is so unknown to me and if it wasnt transfer season the answer to would i buy is no (barring a few which are pb also)

    The one problem is these players all seem to be inflated and with the current market volitility it is hard to predict. I do not need to free up funds atm so this is purely asking if you were in my situation would you sell (all/some) soon to de-risk or do you think they will still increase even though some/most will not move or dip after moving.

    My transfer players and ROI so far are,
    Fekir(10%). Richarlison (30%). Alderweireld(18%). Rice(5%). Willian(36%). Sessegnon(40%). Felipe Anderson (2%). De ligt(42%). Zaniolo(16%). Insigne(9%). Koulibaly(28%).

    Sorry for the long-ish post 😅

  • Last summer won't help very much, there was a World Cup. Players dropped once they were knocked out, similar to how the UCL players drop.

    As a general rule of thumb. Players will rise as transfer speculation rises. However once it's deal done, they will drop because their MB dries up. If you are holding for the flip you need to time your exit. If you are holding for the long term, jump ride it out. If the player has gone to a higher profile club they will rise again once the new season kicks off.

  • if you want to de-risk, I think Willian should go first. His price can go up if he moves to a bigger club, but can also drop like a stone if he goes to smaller/non-Pb league. Others are good holds as they are more likely to move to a bigger club so less risk.

    Just my opinion. We don't even know whether a player to move or not.

  • Yes this is what i was thinking, with no world cup most should continue to rise, even more so than last year with little to no Pb and ipd. I guess its that magic question on timing on when to get out and get back increase holdings on pb players. My strategy involves short and long term but i like to have low risk trades. ( of which transfers are very risky). So i guess getting out slightly before would be advisable, from a risk perspective?

  • @Victory yes good shout on willian,but he is one who ive been monitering his pb scores over the last 3 months and ( when he plays) tend to get decent scores without scoring. Especially with chelsea being hot and cold. So to me it doesnt matter if he doesnt move as i see him playing more next year.

  • I could write you an equally as long post on each individual player depending on circumstance... But the question really has a lot to do about IF...BUT...MAYBE...?

    Fekir for example could stay where he is but i'm sure the daily rumours will mean his price continues to grow.. in fact the longer he stays at Lyon the slower his growth rises... but IF he moves to say Liverpool in the summer that will SPIKE UP then a day later will probably spike down as investors take out profits... depending on performance over time that graph will slide up or down during the season... In some ways not moving could potentially grow his price with less quakes longer term meaning an even better ROI this time next year???

    the same for anyone really in transfer buzz?

    The only things to look out for... Willian moving outside a PB league???? massive drop??? The likes of Koulibaly and Insigne not moving...? maybe a small initial decline.. in fact i don't see an awful lot of buzz for Richarlison or Anderson? Sessegnon could fall if no movers come in (and why would they on present form?) whilst i do see Rice, De Ligt & Alderweireld getting buzz.. I would be looking to cash out on any soon after they potentially agree terms??? As for Zaniolio.. he's just a kid so should continue to grow the better he plays over time???

    Its a nice list though... the only ones i would really be concerned about is Sessegnon and Willian (move dependent) and if Alderweireld leaves Spurs you might just be best advised to get out on the deal completion? The rest should grow the longer you hold them although Insigne & Zaniolo will be more goals/form dependent?

  • @dannypea yes, i agree. Problem is with transfer links coming out left right and center from news outlets to my mums book club. The majority of them wont move lol. I guess were all gambling on which ones will play through. Some of these i will hold whether they move or not. with the exception of willian (if non pb). But for the likes of ajax players/ sessegnon or other non pb league players these would probably drop the most if they didnt move, at least until next jan comes around. So i guess these are the ones to get out of when i have reached a set target?

  • @Hold-The-Door You are right that he is a decent PB performer when he plays. The issue is: he does not play very often.

    He is playing more next year? Are you sure? and even if he is, look at Suarez, Benzema and Aguero; They play very often and score many goals and their prices keep going down.

  • @Hold-The-Door I wouldn't be worried about any short term drops... If de Ligt for example didn't go this summer... that would only add to the long term growth as interest ramps up for longer levels during the FI continued growth period too.. once he's at Barca without any buzz he's just another defender... probably second best bet for DF PB buzz behind Jordi Alba?

    As you say Willian is the highest risk due to age... but he's also a good PB bet and lower in value then a few of the others...

    If you want the transfer hype you need to go big.. Bale, Hazard, maybe Pogba? they'll be the ones that get the headlines... that said with five payouts on non PB days this summer might be more interesting and being quite active during this period could mean a potentially profitable summer ahead?

  • @Victory his could do aswell but i feel benzema, suarez and ageuro need to score 2 or so to get pb and are more ipd players. Im hoping willian may grow if he starts getting games. So i guess im (taking a gamble ) that he does play more with hazard possibly out the door.

  • @dannypea yes i do have quite a large holding of the top Mb players too. But apart from season ending injurys. I would never think about hopping on and off these due to commssion. I was mainly talking about transfer spec mb.

  • @Hold-The-Door said in Advice for the unknown:

    My transfer players and ROI so far are,
    Fekir(10%). Richarlison (30%). Alderweireld(18%). Rice(5%). Willian(36%). Sessegnon(40%). Felipe Anderson (2%). De ligt(42%). Zaniolo(16%). Insigne(9%). Koulibaly(28%).

    Welcome to the forum mate.

    I think you have already achieved excellent numbers on these players. This coupled with the positive market behaviour and further investment of traders fuelled by the summer bonus, means now might be a good time to actually bank some of the profit.

    The key to this game is getting in and out of the right players at the right time.

    My advice would be to take your profit and reinvest in other players that haven't quite caught the attention of the masses yet.

    Keep up the good work, and best of luck to ye.

  • @johnboywalker thanks, its nice to be part of it, and also gives everyone food for thought as everyone has different or slightly different opinions, which shows how different peoples strategies are. Thats why ive now decided to join in as it lets you have different perspectives on the same situation.

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