IPD Goalkeepers

  • Marc Ter Stegen has now kept 8 clean sheets in the last 10 games including some big old games against the best England can offer. I wonder when people will start to realise that, while not hugely exciting, goalkeepers offer unbelievable value for money.

    Very simple maths shows that any goalkeeper under 50p only needs 1 clean sheet to break even. There are stats easily available showing many sup 50p keepers are beating a 40% clean sheets ratio which means statistically you are onto a winner.

    Appreciate season is coming to an end so IPDs for this season are limited but I don't understand why goalkeepers won't be worth more by the start of next season. If not I'll top up even more.

  • @NewUser731
    How did you work out that a goalkeeper has too have 1 clean sheet too break even?

  • @DavidMUFC1987 because 2% (commision) of 50p is 1p -this is the amount you get paid for a clean sheet.

  • Also i believe it’s 1p for a clean sheet which means I’d have too stick a lot of money down in order for it too be worth my while or anybody’s.

  • @NewUser731 Or sell through market and pay 0 commission

  • @jay I just sell to market and then re-buy at the same price back to validate my 30 day hold.

  • @NewUser731
    I see your point and understand your point, I want too make hundreds and thousands not pennies. If it works for you then great 😎

  • @DavidMUFC1987 I wonder how these statistically backed up IPDs compare with people chasing MB and PB dividends.

  • @NewUser731
    I’m not overly obsessed with pb as the system created makes it very hard to win.
    If you buy say ter stegen at 42p and you instant sell at 41p you’ll pay 1p commision. Which means you’d need atleast 2 clean sheets every 30 days too break even.

  • @DavidMUFC1987 another example. Walter Benitez is 25p. He has a clean sheet ratio of approx 50%. If he plays 6 games in 30 days you should get 3 clean sheets. Minus at most 1p per share for commission leaves you 2p. 2p into an 25p shares gives you an 8% return in a month.

    If you have 7/8 games in a 30 day period the %s are even more in your favour.

  • @DavidMUFC1987 I never instant sell them. Always to market and buy back.

  • @NewUser731
    How many goalkeepers keep clean sheets 50% of the time? What I’m getting at is it’s pennies 🤔 so for instance there’s 5 goalkeepers who actually produce clean sheets 50% of the time. That’s only 5 goalkeepers. It’s not worth it but if it works for you well done

  • Not worth the time of day IMO. Much better investments out there to be honest.

    The whole strategy of trying to get clean sheet IPDs is more akin to out and out gambling...

  • @ODT92
    I second that

  • If you buy an IPD keeper now, hold for a month, then who will buy him again at the beginning of Jun? for what?

  • Seems a bit pointless to me no risk so not enough returns you can basically do this with any player anyways not only goalkeepers just Their prices move more , not that I would but good luck

  • @Victory said in IPD Goalkeepers:

    If you buy an IPD keeper now, hold for a month, then who will buy him again at the beginning of Jun? for what?

    The whole thread so far is in doubt.
    We're talking about goalkeepers in terms of IPD.
    However they will soon become eligible for MB.
    Some may see an instant 100% increase, others may see a 12 month 100% increase.
    In some cases that moves the goalposts in terms of holding period and potential ROI.

  • @jay It maybe pointless and with little risk but due to the stability of the Capitol price if you get the right keepers as stated over 40% CS average then the dividends returned would provide funding towards topping up your outfield players in your port or speculating on cheaper outfield players.

    Example: 600 shares in Alisson @£0.66 = £396

    24/47 CS this season.

    24 x £0.01 x 600 = £144 + £0.06 Media this season per share = £36
    Total Divs return = £180.

    Commission on sales of 600 Shares monthly for 9 months if sold @ £0.66 per share would total £7.92 X 9 months = £71.28

    £180 - £71.28 = £108.72 Net Profit over the season for a £396 initial investment.
    This is a net 27.50% ROI on 1 Goalkeeper. The £108 would buy 20 Messi, 20 Hazard and at the same time you still have your 600 per keeper shares with minimal movement on Capitol.

    Obviously the GK become defunct pretty much in Summer so a sell up around about now maybe a good idea and get back on at the start of the season. This is a flaw in the dividend structure which needs addressing and while their at it how about an IPD for penalty saves especially as the likelihood of more penalties awarded come the VAR introduction next season. This would make the GKs of more value to investors and spread the market more evenly. Still for the more cautious investor having money in GKs ,even now where this platform handicaps them, has benefits for a relatively small investment and can provide a steady base to explore other trades with regular dividend payouts.

    I also used todays share price in this example , Alissons share price at the beginning of the season was nearer £0.60 so the buy in would have been slightly less although natural fluctuations meant the figures used for this example would have balanced out including the buying and selling every 30 days and the commission involved.

  • I also do my calculations on an annual projection.
    With this in mind, there is possibility of appreciation as more and more to take the 27.50%.
    They have their base IPD values (projection based each), I don't think my 100% increase projection is far off that. At present they offer value as with the example price.
    A "safe strategy" I'd suggest.

    A higher risk/reward would be at the other end of the pitch, speculating on annual projections.
    The striker who's rarely found the net (or played) this season, who has an upturn in fortune next season would be the best for cherry picking the biggest profits.
    They garner more media attention, they tend to be more volatile and PB becomes a factor.

  • Next season I would anticipate as many +6p sales as I would -3p sales.
    By this time next season I would anticipate at least a 50% increase in current prices.

    I project half the years profits to be on these sale projections (x9), with the other half being dividend returns.

    If I were to hazard a guess - I'd say 2020 will be a good one.
    2021 will see things begin to slow down.
    At that point I would expect FI to throw more juice at it, I would expect another clamor for a share split in approx 2 yrs.

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