Trader's diary



  • There are big differences between this and the normal stock markets; one of which is that dividends are fixed prices.
    There'll be massive excitement around lower priced players who can win buzz because the ROI is significant in comparison to the higher priced players.

    I'd love to see how a %based dividend system would work. Any thoughts on how it would influence the market?
    3%, 2% and 1% for example.



  • @CleanShirtTrader some companies on the stock market pay also dividends based on their performence. So there is in common with the normal stock market:

    1. good performence = reward (dividends),
      bad performence = falling prices
    2. People sell = falling prices,
      People buy = price increases
    3. Good news = price increase
      Bad news = falling prices

    So at the end there is not really a difference in the concept. For sure there is another way at reckon and payout (Media Buzz, PB) the reward for having a good performence share



  • @NewUser38991 The reward is you are paid more often. I don't think attaching a dividend percentage is feasible. Say for arguments sake Neymar reaches £1000 and the dividend percentage is 5%, you really expect FI to pay £50 per future held?



  • @NewUser38991 said in Trader's diary:

    @CleanShirtTrader some companies on the stock market pay also dividends based on their performence. So there is in common with the normal stock market:

    1. good performence = reward (dividends),
      bad performence = falling prices
    2. People sell = falling prices,
      People buy = price increases
    3. Good news = price increase
      Bad news = falling prices

    So at the end there is not really a difference in the concept. For sure there is another way at reckon and payout (Media Buzz, PB) the reward for having a good performence share

    Almost all do- but that wasn't my point. My point was the way those dividends are structured as a % rather than as a fixed amount, so you're rewarded for holding those more pricey players. I'm fairly sure that the top prices would increase in that scenario.

    @NewUser38991 Agreed, the frequency of payment is more beneficial than standard investments. To your point on the £1000, it's a dramatic example but yes- because the market's inflation would mean that £100-£250 players would be being relegated so the money would be made there. They'd also still make commission off any sales of said £1,000 goliath.
    Also, people wouldn't buy him for a 5p dividend, so a change would have to happen, which I imagine would be upscaled based on market growth.



  • So I think you guys should start a new thread called "market mechanics or something", this isn't a trading diary any more (not that this convo ain't interesting!)

    So my current portfolio

    LONGS (lower risk long term stability in portfolio)

    • Icardi - Such a low price for a striker who starts every week, he is only going one way throughout the season and likely to be involved in transfer rumours next year/jan as well which mitigates transfer risk somewhat
    • Dybala - Same as above
    • Gotze - Ridiculously low price for an international who has proven himself at Dortmund before and world cup coming up
    • Asensio - Bought when he scored THAT goal the other week, he is low at the moment so long term risk is low but he might not play and with the deal he just signed I doubt he is going anywhere next year, unless he flops from here on in, which might be the best thing because he would create some buzz next year if he were to leave, just unlikely. A bit of a higher risk future imo.
    • Mkhitaryan - Bought purely on fundamentals, he is in a great team with a great 9 ahead of him, great manager and he is a great player. Being a #10 in the premier league he won't get nearly as much media attention but is only going to climb over the season through goals assists and how well Man U perform. Again he is underpriced at the moment so lowers risk.

    SHORTS (more exciting stuff)
    a load of the current transfer darlings, should bring in some dividends and big money if they get their move. Biggest risk here is probably Mbappe and coutinho as they are both overpriced atm, but will rocket if transferred. Look to flip these on reg basis and swap out for others (should have bought dembele!!!)

    • coutinho
    • mbappe
    • VVD
    • lemar
    • di maria
    • Alexis - this is such a good buy atm because he is going somewhere next season if not this, you could buy and flip soon for a profit or just wait it out for long term growth, which i will be doing

    SELECTED OTHERS

    • Lallana - underprice currently should play every game
    • Iniesta - very cheap slightly higher risk because of age, but should play
    • Lewandowski - just very cheap for who he is
    • Koke - same as above


  • Looks like you'll be doing well, @Wemyss - do you still have Koke and Lemar, or have you cashed in?

    I'm contemplating reducing my portfolio and building on the key players who I think have a chance of good returns.
    I've only got a limited number of each, and the returns for each could be more if i divest in others and invest in them a little more.

    Next planned trades will be to increase holdings in
    Alli, Kane, Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Hazard, KdB and Pogba- All very PB/MB friendly with some growth potential pre-world cup.

    The only difficulty now is deciding who to cut, and when. I'm struggling with timing my sales at the moment- sold Lemar way too early (pre-Liverpool interest), and didn't sell Batshuayi early enough. Suppose these are the 2 main risks with trading :)

    Regretting a couple of stubborn refusals to buy, namely Asensio and Koke- I just can't convince myself of long term value in the market, but will again look back at this and regret it when they become the first £10 players after saving kids from a burning orphanage.



  • TLDR- Bought some players, I'm possibly not thinking clearly enough and get over excited, hoping for some pound-cost-averaging.

    Injected a little more cash.
    David Silva is in, purely because I'm sick of the battle between him and KdB for PB and I'd rather have both. Probably not the greatest reasoning, but he's pretty decent value considering. Risk of rotation? We'll see.
    Doubled my holdings in Kane and Alli, and added Maguire and Sterling. Preparing for what will hopefully be a very profitable World Cup. If we don't qualify, I'm f*cked.
    Gave in and bought Asensio as there were rumours that Bale was booed because he took MA's place in the team- a good sign. Playing, and playing well, for Spain, so some solid growth potential there.
    Werner also purchased, because if he continues to perform well then he'll play regularly for Germany and will also get a big money move away.
    Icardi is in too- similar reasoning to Werner, but I think there was a little too much sentiment behind this buy. But that's one of the points of this (erratic) diary- analysing, among other things, my trading strategy.
    And, overall, increased holding of the other big hitters. Hoping there'll be an element of pound-cost-averaging, but I'm not sure if that works in an index like this.



  • @CleanShirtTrader

    I cashed in on Lemar pretty early but still made a nice profit, cashed in on Koke at peak so happy there. The problem with all those high priced players is they are quite high risk if they tank, you could lose a fair bit imho, and the margin to flip them is so large its hard to get out. Agree they could be great for dividends but I think if you go for slightly cheaper players you mitigate some risk if they are inherently at an underprice, obv some guesswork involved in pricing a stock.

    re my previous post UPDATE - sold mbappe, alexis, koke and lemar for good roi, sold VVD for a gain of about £2 lol and di maria is still sitting in my portfolio having tanked after i missed the opportunity to sell when the twitter thing was raging, confident he will bounce because he is at such a low price currently and will get a transfer if he doesn't play.

    regarding the long terms, sold mkhitaryan at no loss/gain for a host of reasons not least because I think I misjudged his price:value. The rest are all doing fantastic except gotze who has done nothing as of yet but early days.

    I also bought a boatload of Dembele futures. I am really confident about him in a top 3 la liga Barca team where he will always play and bound to score against all the junk teams in that league. I priced valued him on the current market and he came out pretty low + france are a great team.



  • Getting very twitchy about Penny Stocks - still hold Sandro but the majority of my portfolio are media based.

    Having said that took a couple of punts on Chicarito (upcoming game when he has a very high chance of a PB) and Guaye (Europa). Not because I am chasing PB wins but because I'm hoping others will inflating their prices - have to see how that goes and whether its a viable strategy moving forward.



  • Shocking few days whilst on holiday- down c. 15%.

    All of this 'flipping' for PB seems utterly pointless IMO.

    What happened to people just building a solid portfolio and gradually building? Get the right players in, keep them, and their PB/MB returns will also attract the right punters and increase in value.

    I get it though, there are much smarter folk out there who know when to sell, and then laugh as everyone panic sells because of a slight drop. If i had the spare cash I'd clean up on the bargains.

    Frustrating.

    Not budging though- I'm holding through this until something massive changes the goalposts, like the penny stocks. Then I'll have to really think.



  • @CleanShirtTrader I agree it's annoying how players increase a day before they play and then drop dramatically two days later.

    The penny stocks will be interesting and FI will have to be very careful how they deliver it. After what happened when PB was introduced I'm a little nervous how the market will react and if I'm honest wouldn't be surprised to see the foreign players drop massively but time will tell.



  • @CleanShirtTrader

    I agree flipping is not as good as long term.

    I only have two long term holds the rest I have been flipping. Here's a few examples of how I have minimized profit from flipping.

    I bought 160 Marco Assensio at £1.21 and sold for £1.51 now he is £2.34

    I had 110 Lorenzo Insigne at 1.37 sold at £1.70 now he is £2.90

    similar scenarios for Marcelo, Ibrahimovic, Ben Woodburn.

    My portfolio would be about 200-300% better off If I had held.

    I think I am now going to invest more in long term rather than trying to predict market movements.



  • @iwantmore said in Trader's diary:

    @CleanShirtTrader

    I agree flipping is not as good as long term.

    I only have two long term holds the rest I have been flipping. Here's a few examples of how I have minimized profit from flipping.

    I bought 160 Marco Assensio at £1.21 and sold for £1.51 now he is £2.34

    I had 110 Lorenzo Insigne at 1.37 sold at £1.70 now he is £2.90

    similar scenarios for Marcelo, Ibrahimovic, Ben Woodburn.

    My portfolio would be about 200-300% better off If I had held.

    I think I am now going to invest more in long term rather than trying to predict market movements.

    OUCH. Mate, those two examples are exactly why I can't deal with flipping myself. I've heard of 'buyer's remorse', but 'seller's remorse' is definitely worse in this situation.
    Still, at least you made a profit. I bought batshuayi to flip and... well... I bought him at what turned out to be his peak and I've lost over 50% of his value. So... long termers it is!
    I see Timo Wenrer as a long term hold personally, but I don't know if the market will or not. If he drops back below £1, will I cut him loose?

    I think this is the thing really- I've got a strong mindset, but the market doesn't half make you second guess yourself.



  • @CleanShirtTrader I agree. It's very unpredictable at the minute. Mohammed Salah lost shed loads the other day. No injury or sending off just didn't play very well.

    Ivan perisic also won media buz for overall and for midfield and actually dropped in value. Yet a player rises drastically sometimes for no reason.

    The market reacts in crazy ways.



  • The market is the reason why I have mostly been flipping. Seeing the market crash a few times doesn't give me huge confidence in long term investments.

    I have to say i've done okay flipping. Started with 1300£ portfolio mid august and now i'm almost at £1800.

    It's best to just put your own values on players though, what you think they're worth/could be and stick with your gut as appose to what you the market thinks.



  • @Hybrid said in Trader's diary:

    The market is the reason why I have mostly been flipping. Seeing the market crash a few times doesn't give me huge confidence in long term investments.

    I have to say i've done okay flipping. Started with 1300£ portfolio mid august and now i'm almost at £1800.

    It's best to just put your own values on players though, what you think they're worth/could be and stick with your gut as appose to what you the market thinks.

    Nice gains! Interesting approach around 'own values' though- I did this with Kane and Alli, and they've dropped. Messi's the only one who's approaching where I think he should sit (£7).

    @iwantmore yeah, i don't get the logic of selling when someone gets buzz. That's the bread and butter of the index- why sell when it's bringing in income?

    My only thought is they've seen value elsewhere and are freeing up funds to invest. Risky if you want to get back on and the player value continues to go up (exactly what I did with Dybala at £2.38...)



  • I've sold Pogba. I feel sick.
    Realised that I'd lose pretty much all profit I made on him in the 12 weeks he's out, so it was time to stop being so emotionally tied to the gains he'd made me.

    Going to use the cash from his sale to try and trade during the day's games.
    I'll pop a question out on the forum to the 'flippers' to see what their trading strategy is.


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