Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt



  • Matthijs De Ligt, is obviously a super talented lad and at 20 years of age, he gets to pick where he's playing next season, be it Barcelona, Man Utd or Madrid.

    It's all very exciting!

    HOWEVER

    His current price tag is £2.89, which is just 4p shy of Virgil Van Dijk.

    You know...

    • 2018/19's highest defensive dividend winner (75p)
    • PFA: Player of the Year
    • 9 Goals + 4 Assists from Centre Back
    • 21 Clean Sheets in the Premier League
    • Champions League Finalist

    To put this into perspective...

    Even with all the media hype surrounding De Ligt's imminent transfer, he's picked up only 4p in dividends... ever!

    Admittedly, this could just be the beginning of the media storm. At time of writing, De Ligt is 2nd in MB for the day and has stated that his future won't be decided until after the Nations League, a few weeks from now. It's worth remembering that when Daley Blind, transferred to Man Utd, he picked up 50p in MB, so the next few weeks could be promising for De Ligt holders.

    The Down Side
    Sky Sports are reporting that Man Utd have pulled out of the race to sign De Ligt, with other media reports suggesting he wants Champions League football and that Man Utd are putting together a big money bid for Harry Maguire.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/manchesterunited/man-united-weigh-up-a-renewed-bid-for-harry-maguire-after-conceding-defeat-in-matthijs-de-ligt-chase-a4151866.html

    Barcelona
    It seems likely that De Ligt will sign with Barcelona, a big move for sure but is it really something the British papers will go crazy for? And what becomes of his value at Barcelona?

    • Pique = 45p (picked up 23p last season in divs)
    • Umtiti = 81p (0p in divs ever)
    • Lenglet = 43p (0p in divs ever)

    De Ligt is young, so a price comparison to Pique is unfair but given Pique played 58 games last season, and scored 7 goals, his 23p in dividends might be a semi-realistic seasonal target for De Ligt, if he lives up to the hype. Umtiti is only 25, but after winning the World Cup with France, he spent most of the season injured. His price has risen steadily over the last 2 months but even so, the injury makes for a bad comparison.

    Lenglet on the other hand, is only 23 years old but played in 43 games last term (including 11 Champions League matches) and his price is still only 43p. That's quite worrying, considering the vast difference between De Ligt's £2.89 price tag and Lenglet's 43p.

    Dangerous Conclusion
    De Ligt's price tag is currently outrageous to the point where quite a lot of people could lose money on him.

    In all likelihood he'll still grow in price and if the Man Utd deal does come back on the table, he might even pick up some decent dividends but a giant fall in his price tag seems outright inevitable no matter where he goes. It will likely happen the day his transfer is announced and it could spiral.

    Is De Ligt the definition of a high risk-high reward player? Or would you be wise to sell him to the market right now.



  • Oh aye, definate bubble. I'm staying well clear.



  • @Dan-The-Man Can't argue with your assessment at all.



  • 1 factor you are not taking into account is...the index keeps growing.

    In 2,3 years time even if de ligt is not in the top 5 of defenders of Europe he would still be above his current price imo, wheraas someone like pique could be retired by then.

    Short term i would not invest in de ligt, but long term he is a pretty safe bet.



  • Look at pique's yearly graph. Wise money is going on him. Will have a fantastic price percentage rise and give great divs for as long as you choose to hold him.



  • @Drogo90 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    1 factor you are not taking into account is...the index keeps growing.

    In 2,3 years time even if de ligt is not in the top 5 of defenders of Europe he would still be above his current price imo, wheraas someone like pique could be retired by then.

    Short term i would not invest in de ligt, but long term he is a pretty safe bet.

    Hmmmm.....

    I'm fully with you that the market growing will lead to increases in players prices but if he joins Barcelona, I'd say he's £1.60-£2.40 over valued and that's if he lives up to the hype.

    The majority of his value right now is in the fact that he's due to be transferred to a top-top club. Once he signs that 5 year deal though, there's no long term reason to hold him over... say...

    • Maguire £1.78
    • Laporte £1.31
    • Marquinhos £1.22
    • Tah £1.19
    • Akanji £1.13

    So with so many options... he'd need to be doing big things PB wise to regain the initial loss. I mean, 3 years from now, if he's absolutely killing it, Barcelona will keep him. If he's not killing it, there could be a rumour of a move to the Premiership... but if he's not killing it... his price will probably reflect that too.



  • Extremely risky buy right now. Altho if he goes to barca I don't expect him to fall more than 70p tho.
    Any other price predictions on that front?



  • @LuaLua

    Interesting.

    What's your logic behind the 70p dip mate?

    You basing that on something or just a gut feeling?



  • @Dan-The-Man Ah just a rubbishy guess tbh at how many pence baked into prem move and how many people in for media buzz. What jovic dropped about 60p in total too 2.30 or something. Probs be similarish.



  • @LuaLua

    Meh... Rubbishy guesses can be useful because it tells me you'd be tempted to get in around then.

    I just look at the other defenders and think.... he'd need to be doing something special to even be on my radar next season.

    If he moved to Man Utd, he'd at least get some flack in the press for his price tag but if he ends up rotating at Barca with Umtiti, Pique and Leglet, I don't know... feels like he'd quickly become a forgotten warrior.



  • @Dan-The-Man I would not be tempted to get in at that price no way. Unless pb beast. I just reckon people are generally willing to hold even if its obviously the wrong call. They don't like selling up. And he's so young at one of the best clubs in the world it can be easy for people to convince themselves to hold.

    If you asked everyone 'What would be the highest price your willing to buy in at of De ligt if he goes to barca' tho you might get a good judge of market sentiment. Good point.

    You should start a thread asking that question on a bunch of transfer players with the club their most likely to go to. Interesting to work out averages and then see if they end up close. at the end of transfer window.



  • Drogo90 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    1 factor you are not taking into account is...the index keeps growing.

    In 2,3 years time even if de ligt is not in the top 5 of defenders of Europe he would still be above his current price imo, wheraas someone like pique could be retired by then.

    Short term i would not invest in de ligt, but long term he is a pretty safe bet.

    That's true but if you want to invest long-term , isn't the best thing to do to wait for the transfer and buy then ? Its likely the drop after transfer will be significantly more than the dividends won.

    It looks a high risk, low reward hold for me.



  • @mike778

    I pretty much agree with you Mike.

    I mean, even if he emulates the Blind transfer in terms of MB, the amount of cash he'll lose in value will probably massively outweigh that. Plus MB, was higher back then.



  • DE LIGT MEANS DE LIGT



  • @Dan-The-Man very interesting, so if you held him now at a considerable profit, would you cash out and risk losing dividends over the next few weeks?



  • @9stevo I expect when he drops, the drop will be far more significant then the MBs he earns till then.

    It's a risk vs reward scenario. And for me the risk outweighs the reward



  • genuinely think this thread is worse than trying to pump players it’s almost done to ensure panic and not helpful

    I don’t hold either so makes no difference to me



  • @9stevo said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man very interesting, so if you held him now at a considerable profit, would you cash out and risk losing dividends over the next few weeks?

    I'm with @9stevo

    I mean, lets say he goes and picks up 10p or even 20p's worth of dividends over the next 2 weeks. It's possible, especially given the Nations League. That might even see him rise a bit more...

    If he drops, 50p, the spread alone will be more than 10p, so you'll be left 30p down over night and with no real guarantee of him rising and that could then be a fairly slow death, as he drops another £1-£2, to fall in line with the other defenders at equally big clubs, with long careers ahead of them.

    I think there's safer places to put my money but we all have to decide those things. I could just as easily be wrong, he could clean up next week and grow another pound, then not drop because of his age. Seems unlikely to me.

    @therock

    I didn't do this to hurt anyone, or cause panic. I did this because I saw a player who's price tag doesn't make sense to me but could easily be appealing to traders who aren't picking up on the danger. In the same way that from time-to-time, forum posters pop up to highlight quick pump-and-dumps on the lesser known players.

    For the record, I made a similar post about Pogba back in April, and a fair few lads on here took me to task for trying to scare people. Those same lads are all in the Pogba is King thread today talking about how they've since sold Pogba or are trying to sell Pogba... and sadly the drops I predicted have happened.

    Sometimes, people on here are actually just looking out for people. With a name like TheRock, you should probably be cool with someone looking out for the people. ;)



  • This post is deleted!


  • @therock someone asked for advice, the advice has been rational and well explained. It's up to holders if they act on it or not.

    Funny enough, I was a holder and had planned to keep into next season. But a similar thread emerged while the season was still in play. I read some very good reasoning as to why a drop coukd well he coming, I weighed it up with my understanding of the index and it made perfect sense, so I sold at a very good price. There's a chance they are wrong and that I've left money in the table. But I do feel it was a good decision that allowed me to (almost) maximise my profit and reduce the risk and I'll stand by it being a sound call even if things play out differently to how I think.

    Isn't that the point of the forum? To discuss pros and cons of various strategies. Hearing an argument for both sides helped me make why I think is a sound informed decision.


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