Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt



  • @Dan-The-Man

    I agree with others that the heading didn't really match the actual content of your post, but you did make some decent arguments about why you thought he was overpriced. Not that I necessarily agree with you, but was certainly food for thought.

    What I would be interested to know though is:

    1. Has De Ligt risen more than you expected when writing this post, especially when at one point he reached £3.43?
    2. Has the amount of media interest surprised you? I know you predicted MB wins, but he seems to be in top 5 daily recently
    3. When the transfer does finally happen, what do you think his price will fall to?


  • @Dan-The-Man

    How much would some one of made on himif they sold to market at the current price and how much MB have would they have made per share if they had bought on the day of the post

    Just reminding you that you didn’t tell people to buy him at 2.89 then sell at 3.34 if that’s what your deluded brain thinks you wrote

    Aswell why did you delete part of the post genius



  • @Weggers83 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man

    What I would be interested to know though is:

    1. Has De Ligt risen more than you expected?

    In the summary of the post, I called him "the definition of high risk/high reward", because some gamblers would be able to make a fortune out him in that short window of time but for me, it was never about how high he might rise. It was about how far he would fall.

    My assessment was that De Ligt was already massively over priced and that his peak was always going to be very short lived. It didn't matter how high he grew in the immediate short term, he was going to fall further around the time his transfer was announced. A higher peak just meant even more people getting burned.

    1. Has the amount of media interest surprised you?

    No.

    I used the Daley Blind example in the post, because of the obvious similarities between the two. Blind picked up 50p during his transfer to Man Utd. De Ligt also had the Nations League to add to his media hype.

    1. When the transfer does finally happen, what do you think his price will fall to?

    It depends largely where he goes but the initial drop is nothing compared to the downward spiral that seems likely to follow.

    Here's the top PB winning defenders from last season.

    • Van Dijk: £3.03
    • Maguire: £1.98
    • Akanji: £1.36
    • Marquinhos: £1.31
    • Tah: £1.26
    • Digne: £1.15
    • Elvedi: £0.97
    • Ramos: £0.89 <----- highest PB winner last season
    • Vertonghen: £0.62

    Van Dijk and Maguire have obvious reasons to be significantly more expensive than the rest, so chop them out and you're left with a bunch of players under £1.50.

    I agree with others that the heading didn't really match the actual content of your post

    The headline is dangerous levels of hype... the content explained why De Ligt was a high risk investment, who's dangerously over valued. I really don't see the disconnect. Within 2 weeks of me writing it, some people had bought in and nose dived in to the red.



  • @therock said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man

    How much would some one of made on himif they sold to market at the current price and how much MB have would they have made per share if they had bought on the day of the post

    What do you think I meant by

    "the definition of a high risk-high reward player"



  • Someone delete the thread before Dan's head explodes 😱



  • @LuaLua Oh wait dan created the thread ahahaha
    Dan save yourself.
    Dangerous levels of overheating occurring.



  • I’m just glad people got out the way of all harry Kane’s media buzz that De Ligt stole 😂😂 and the car crash of the 45p rise.

    We’re never goin to agree on this so best be left
    alone I don’t even own De Ligt I half expect you to put haha if he hits 2.50 wen I own varane and maguire not him



  • @therock don't buy Maguire mate... He might very well win a shit tonne of media and make it to £3 but eventually he will go down in price. I called it first.



  • @LuaLua

    I'm 100% for people ripping my threads to pieces. That's how we learn. It'd be just nice if it were done by people who had read and understood the thread, rather than some idiots who read the title then started wading in, without reading the post.



  • @therock said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    We’re never goin to agree on this so best be left

    Well you leave it then but you're right. When his transfer goes through and his price falls out the sky, I'm absolutely going to be tagging you. Might even make a new thread pointing to your 'frankly embarrassing' comment.

    That's gonna be a fun little day for me.



  • at one point can we tag you in and laugh then dan the time he’s increased by 50p a share (happened) the current 30p (happened) oh never because you put he might increase.

    Out of interest what part of the post did you delete I’m guessing you said something laughable and didn’t want called out on it you’ve got no credability once you’ve done that it’s like your a tipster deleting losing bets



  • @Dan-The-Man 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 you don't half love a big old argument. Whilst you've made valid points I think your points are hard to argue with as you pretty much cover all bases of the argument and you turn out to be right whatever the outcome 😂. I don't necesseray disagree with pointing out information to newcomers or handing out advice and of course it's your opinion and that's fair enough. I mentioned the other day it only feels like you're really just taking into account short term trading, the market in a year could see rises on all players and his price be close or even well above the £2.89, his PB could be outstanding for the next year say if he went to PSG. Look at at Kimmich price as an example. If he says he goes to PSG, has some outstanding PB scores and his price is £3.20 with also another summer of potentional MB who would be right then? 🤔. Remember everyone has different strategies



  • @therock said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    Out of interest what part of the post did you delete

    Now you're making shit up.

    I've never had any issues with being wrong. When I was wrong about Harry Kane's media week, I was the first person to point it out.



  • Can’t you read dan I mean the part where it comes up this post is deleted on this topic thank god you can’t edit



  • @Shippers said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    I think your points are hard to argue with

    Well I wasn't looking for an argument when I made the post and if you find it hard to argue with, that means you agree with my assessment. That's OK. We don't need to argue... you can just agree with me :)

    you pretty much cover all bases of the argument and you turn out to be right whatever the outcome .

    That's just not true.

    • If he skyrockets when his transfer is announced and a couple of months later he's still rising, then clearly I got it wrong and I'll be the first to say, hey I got it wrong.

    • Likewise, if he maintains his current value for the next year and picks up MB, then again, I was clearly wrong.

    the market in a year could see rises on all players and his price be close or even well above the £2.89,

    Can you see how, you laying out circumstances where I could be wrong... contradicts your point about me being right no matter what happens?

    you're really just taking into account short term trading,

    If I were only taking in to account short term trading... this post would have been titled "De Ligt: BUY NOW!". This thread points out that he'll rise short term... then fall off a cliff short-medium term... and continue spiralling long term until his price falls back in line with the other defenders.

    Like you, I'm a big believer that the market will rise and 3 years from now, many players will be much higher in value than they are today but Daley Blind isn't higher in value than when he was in De Ligt's situation. In fact, he's 0.24p per future. So it's simply not reasonable to assume all players will grow no matter what.

    @therock

    I honestly don't know where you're looking.

    If I deleted a post somewhere in the thread. Chances are, I had responded to two people, individually... creating a double post... then cleaned it up, by moving both responses into one post. Which is exactly what just happened here BTW.



  • This post is deleted!


  • Guys, not sure why this has exploded and got personal.
    We are all adults and as such should be mature enough to respect investors opinions and either agree, or ignore them.

    All opinions on this thread are right until they are proved to be wrong and only time will tell on that front.

    For the record, I think Dan the man makes a convincing argument and if I held De Ligt shares I'd be selling with a view to get back on when the price is more realistic.

    That said De Ligt is 19 years old and could prove to be a great long term hold but not for me at the current price.

    Good luck if you hold :)



  • @Long-Haul-Col but since posting de Ligt has won mb every day. He's won ipd and he gained another 50p cap ap.

    Its not factually wrong because in his massively boring posts he pretty much covered every outcome.

    If I start a thread "Maguire - Massive!! Risk!! Dangerous" then proceed with a 5 page diatribe about how one day he will retire and be worth 1p... I am factually right. But it would be as bizarre and insane as this thread...so i won't.



  • @Vespasian32 I agree with all that you state but I think his current price is inflated due to the Transfer speculation and will ultimately settle significantly lower IMO.

    That in short is the reason that I would not consider at his current price and think that anyone buying at his current price may need to use most of the full four year hold to get a decent return.



  • @Vespasian32

    There's no way to be right with you then is there?

    • If I made a post saying "BUY! BUY! BUY!" you'd be on me for pumping players.

    • If I made a post saying "SELL! SELL! SELL!" you'd be having a go about whipping up fear.

    I made a more nuanced post, with plenty of research and you still had a pop at me for whipping up fear. I wouldn't mind if you were showing me things I said that was completely incorrect but you aren't and rather than just admit that you agree with just about everything I've said in here... you'd sooner attack me for saying it.

    Like seriously... what do you think is going to happen with him going forward?


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.