Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt



  • 1 factor you are not taking into account is...the index keeps growing.

    In 2,3 years time even if de ligt is not in the top 5 of defenders of Europe he would still be above his current price imo, wheraas someone like pique could be retired by then.

    Short term i would not invest in de ligt, but long term he is a pretty safe bet.



  • Look at pique's yearly graph. Wise money is going on him. Will have a fantastic price percentage rise and give great divs for as long as you choose to hold him.



  • @Drogo90 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    1 factor you are not taking into account is...the index keeps growing.

    In 2,3 years time even if de ligt is not in the top 5 of defenders of Europe he would still be above his current price imo, wheraas someone like pique could be retired by then.

    Short term i would not invest in de ligt, but long term he is a pretty safe bet.

    Hmmmm.....

    I'm fully with you that the market growing will lead to increases in players prices but if he joins Barcelona, I'd say he's £1.60-£2.40 over valued and that's if he lives up to the hype.

    The majority of his value right now is in the fact that he's due to be transferred to a top-top club. Once he signs that 5 year deal though, there's no long term reason to hold him over... say...

    • Maguire £1.78
    • Laporte £1.31
    • Marquinhos £1.22
    • Tah £1.19
    • Akanji £1.13

    So with so many options... he'd need to be doing big things PB wise to regain the initial loss. I mean, 3 years from now, if he's absolutely killing it, Barcelona will keep him. If he's not killing it, there could be a rumour of a move to the Premiership... but if he's not killing it... his price will probably reflect that too.



  • Extremely risky buy right now. Altho if he goes to barca I don't expect him to fall more than 70p tho.
    Any other price predictions on that front?



  • @LuaLua

    Interesting.

    What's your logic behind the 70p dip mate?

    You basing that on something or just a gut feeling?



  • @Dan-The-Man Ah just a rubbishy guess tbh at how many pence baked into prem move and how many people in for media buzz. What jovic dropped about 60p in total too 2.30 or something. Probs be similarish.



  • @LuaLua

    Meh... Rubbishy guesses can be useful because it tells me you'd be tempted to get in around then.

    I just look at the other defenders and think.... he'd need to be doing something special to even be on my radar next season.

    If he moved to Man Utd, he'd at least get some flack in the press for his price tag but if he ends up rotating at Barca with Umtiti, Pique and Leglet, I don't know... feels like he'd quickly become a forgotten warrior.



  • @Dan-The-Man I would not be tempted to get in at that price no way. Unless pb beast. I just reckon people are generally willing to hold even if its obviously the wrong call. They don't like selling up. And he's so young at one of the best clubs in the world it can be easy for people to convince themselves to hold.

    If you asked everyone 'What would be the highest price your willing to buy in at of De ligt if he goes to barca' tho you might get a good judge of market sentiment. Good point.

    You should start a thread asking that question on a bunch of transfer players with the club their most likely to go to. Interesting to work out averages and then see if they end up close. at the end of transfer window.



  • Drogo90 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    1 factor you are not taking into account is...the index keeps growing.

    In 2,3 years time even if de ligt is not in the top 5 of defenders of Europe he would still be above his current price imo, wheraas someone like pique could be retired by then.

    Short term i would not invest in de ligt, but long term he is a pretty safe bet.

    That's true but if you want to invest long-term , isn't the best thing to do to wait for the transfer and buy then ? Its likely the drop after transfer will be significantly more than the dividends won.

    It looks a high risk, low reward hold for me.



  • @mike778

    I pretty much agree with you Mike.

    I mean, even if he emulates the Blind transfer in terms of MB, the amount of cash he'll lose in value will probably massively outweigh that. Plus MB, was higher back then.



  • DE LIGT MEANS DE LIGT



  • @Dan-The-Man very interesting, so if you held him now at a considerable profit, would you cash out and risk losing dividends over the next few weeks?



  • @9stevo I expect when he drops, the drop will be far more significant then the MBs he earns till then.

    It's a risk vs reward scenario. And for me the risk outweighs the reward



  • genuinely think this thread is worse than trying to pump players it’s almost done to ensure panic and not helpful

    I don’t hold either so makes no difference to me



  • @9stevo said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man very interesting, so if you held him now at a considerable profit, would you cash out and risk losing dividends over the next few weeks?

    I'm with @9stevo

    I mean, lets say he goes and picks up 10p or even 20p's worth of dividends over the next 2 weeks. It's possible, especially given the Nations League. That might even see him rise a bit more...

    If he drops, 50p, the spread alone will be more than 10p, so you'll be left 30p down over night and with no real guarantee of him rising and that could then be a fairly slow death, as he drops another £1-£2, to fall in line with the other defenders at equally big clubs, with long careers ahead of them.

    I think there's safer places to put my money but we all have to decide those things. I could just as easily be wrong, he could clean up next week and grow another pound, then not drop because of his age. Seems unlikely to me.

    @therock

    I didn't do this to hurt anyone, or cause panic. I did this because I saw a player who's price tag doesn't make sense to me but could easily be appealing to traders who aren't picking up on the danger. In the same way that from time-to-time, forum posters pop up to highlight quick pump-and-dumps on the lesser known players.

    For the record, I made a similar post about Pogba back in April, and a fair few lads on here took me to task for trying to scare people. Those same lads are all in the Pogba is King thread today talking about how they've since sold Pogba or are trying to sell Pogba... and sadly the drops I predicted have happened.

    Sometimes, people on here are actually just looking out for people. With a name like TheRock, you should probably be cool with someone looking out for the people. ;)



  • This post is deleted!


  • @therock someone asked for advice, the advice has been rational and well explained. It's up to holders if they act on it or not.

    Funny enough, I was a holder and had planned to keep into next season. But a similar thread emerged while the season was still in play. I read some very good reasoning as to why a drop coukd well he coming, I weighed it up with my understanding of the index and it made perfect sense, so I sold at a very good price. There's a chance they are wrong and that I've left money in the table. But I do feel it was a good decision that allowed me to (almost) maximise my profit and reduce the risk and I'll stand by it being a sound call even if things play out differently to how I think.

    Isn't that the point of the forum? To discuss pros and cons of various strategies. Hearing an argument for both sides helped me make why I think is a sound informed decision.



  • you could of headed the topic sell de ligt please
    buy my value alternatives. If people can’t see
    through the obvious bias that is a problem for
    them not me I’m just pointing out it’s the most long winded attempt at rubbishing a player you don’t own hoping the money reinvested in one of yours own players prob Laporte maguire etc

    He might well drop but the trend on the whole
    index is young players value are higher than comparible players that’s the nature of the beast
    Putting up Barca players values as a guide to what
    a Barca playing defender value might be listing
    Over 30s and two lower talents is the equivalent of saying wen Liverpool signed VVD he’s to high
    Because lovren matip and klaven are worth this amount/earned these divs. Not relevant

    A frankly embarrassing post can’t believe defended it as helping others



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Yes, I agree, his price will probably tank once his transfer is completed.

    How much, depends on where he moves to. A move to Man Utd would minimise the drop, but I suspect that he'll end up at Barcelona - which could see him drop down to circa £1 over the next 6-12 months.



  • @ocs123

    If the lad ever hits £1 i'm putting my house into his shares. lol


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.