Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt



  • genuinely think this thread is worse than trying to pump players it’s almost done to ensure panic and not helpful

    I don’t hold either so makes no difference to me



  • @9stevo said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man very interesting, so if you held him now at a considerable profit, would you cash out and risk losing dividends over the next few weeks?

    I'm with @9stevo

    I mean, lets say he goes and picks up 10p or even 20p's worth of dividends over the next 2 weeks. It's possible, especially given the Nations League. That might even see him rise a bit more...

    If he drops, 50p, the spread alone will be more than 10p, so you'll be left 30p down over night and with no real guarantee of him rising and that could then be a fairly slow death, as he drops another £1-£2, to fall in line with the other defenders at equally big clubs, with long careers ahead of them.

    I think there's safer places to put my money but we all have to decide those things. I could just as easily be wrong, he could clean up next week and grow another pound, then not drop because of his age. Seems unlikely to me.

    @therock

    I didn't do this to hurt anyone, or cause panic. I did this because I saw a player who's price tag doesn't make sense to me but could easily be appealing to traders who aren't picking up on the danger. In the same way that from time-to-time, forum posters pop up to highlight quick pump-and-dumps on the lesser known players.

    For the record, I made a similar post about Pogba back in April, and a fair few lads on here took me to task for trying to scare people. Those same lads are all in the Pogba is King thread today talking about how they've since sold Pogba or are trying to sell Pogba... and sadly the drops I predicted have happened.

    Sometimes, people on here are actually just looking out for people. With a name like TheRock, you should probably be cool with someone looking out for the people. ;)



  • This post is deleted!


  • @therock someone asked for advice, the advice has been rational and well explained. It's up to holders if they act on it or not.

    Funny enough, I was a holder and had planned to keep into next season. But a similar thread emerged while the season was still in play. I read some very good reasoning as to why a drop coukd well he coming, I weighed it up with my understanding of the index and it made perfect sense, so I sold at a very good price. There's a chance they are wrong and that I've left money in the table. But I do feel it was a good decision that allowed me to (almost) maximise my profit and reduce the risk and I'll stand by it being a sound call even if things play out differently to how I think.

    Isn't that the point of the forum? To discuss pros and cons of various strategies. Hearing an argument for both sides helped me make why I think is a sound informed decision.



  • you could of headed the topic sell de ligt please
    buy my value alternatives. If people can’t see
    through the obvious bias that is a problem for
    them not me I’m just pointing out it’s the most long winded attempt at rubbishing a player you don’t own hoping the money reinvested in one of yours own players prob Laporte maguire etc

    He might well drop but the trend on the whole
    index is young players value are higher than comparible players that’s the nature of the beast
    Putting up Barca players values as a guide to what
    a Barca playing defender value might be listing
    Over 30s and two lower talents is the equivalent of saying wen Liverpool signed VVD he’s to high
    Because lovren matip and klaven are worth this amount/earned these divs. Not relevant

    A frankly embarrassing post can’t believe defended it as helping others



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Yes, I agree, his price will probably tank once his transfer is completed.

    How much, depends on where he moves to. A move to Man Utd would minimise the drop, but I suspect that he'll end up at Barcelona - which could see him drop down to circa £1 over the next 6-12 months.



  • @ocs123

    If the lad ever hits £1 i'm putting my house into his shares. lol



  • @ShaneH

    Yeah, I'd definitely buy into him if his priced dropped down to circa £1 next season. He's a quality player and could be one of the best defenders in the world over the next 5-10 years. Unfortunately defenders aren't all that sexy in FI terms, unless they play for a high profile Premiership club (and win MB regularly) or score lots of goals (and win PB regularly).



  • This post is deleted!


  • @therock @therock How so? It seems to me the info here helps people find a profitable exit point and not get burnt, whereas pumping players is generally about maximising the pumper's profit.

    Yes it may mean people get out earlier than they may have done otherwise (and leave money on the table) but that's very different to creating a bubble to catch people in.



  • @Dan-The-Man Good research about De Ligt.



  • @therock said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    you could of headed the topic sell de ligt please
    buy my value alternatives. If people can’t see
    through the obvious bias that is a problem for
    them not me I’m just pointing out it’s the most long winded attempt at rubbishing a player you don’t own hoping the money reinvested in one of yours own players prob Laporte maguire etc

    He might well drop but the trend on the whole
    index is young players value are higher than comparible players that’s the nature of the beast
    Putting up Barca players values as a guide to what
    a Barca playing defender value might be listing
    Over 30s and two lower talents is the equivalent of saying wen Liverpool signed VVD he’s to high
    Because lovren matip and klaven are worth this amount/earned these divs. Not relevant

    A frankly embarrassing post can’t believe defended it as helping others

    We'll see how embarrassing it is a month or two from now.

    Hey, maybe you're right.

    Maybe a 20 year old defender, transferring to Barcelona to be rotated, will be worth the same amount as Van Dijk, leading the best defensive line up on the planet and scoring goals for fun.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    I sold my shares in De Light and made a nice profit, but it's difficult to compare his dividends considering he only picks them up in Champions League as doesn't play in a "big league".

    That being said I am glad I sold when I did. Not to say I wouldn't return in the future but I feel unless a move to PL happens and he hits the ground running straight away he will be in for a drop



  • @Dan-The-Man

    To be rotated oh dear case closed



  • up again nearly 3% today.

    we've all got opinions on players, but personally do not see why you'd bother outlining a case why you think a particular one is over-priced. pointing out pumping and dumping of questionable assets is one thing - but talking down an obviously popular, talented player seems a little strange. Just don't buy him?

    Disclaimer: I don't own and think he's a bit over-valued too.



  • @Keegans-Bluff said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    up again nearly 3% today.

    do not see why you'd bother outlining a case why you think a particular one is over-priced.

    There's always a chance that someone pops up with information I don't have, that could help change my mind.

    I'm also the kind of guy who likes to look back on my logic, to learn from my own mistakes. So in a few months when I look back at this post, I'll be able to understand why I didn't get in on him and if my logic was sound.

    Also, when I see a car crash about to happen, I try to get people out of the way.



  • Also, when I see a car crash about to happen, I try to get people out of the way.

    Did you ever consider your post may become the cause of the car crash? A self fulfilling prophecy in a way.

    I'm all for people giving their positive and negative views on players but this seems a deliberate act to bring down the price of De Ligt. Perhaps for your won benefit where you can purchase cheaper.
    Perhaps you simply wanted to start another "I told you so" thread similar to the Pogba one. Regardless I don't like this kind of forum thread.

    I don't own De Ligt shares but will be considering based on his new club next season.



  • @ShaneH

    If you look at the maths. You'll see that it's highly unlikely a forum post will result in wide spread changes to the market.

    I've seen it suggested that there's 200,000 people trading on the Index.

    • Not even 1% of those people, look at the forums
    • Only a fraction of the people who frequent the forums, are likely have read my post
    • Only a fraction of the people who have read my post are likely to agree with me
    • And only a tiny fraction of those who agree with me are likely to take action based on the information I've provided in my post.

    It seems to me that several forum users are eager to believe in conspiracy theories. If you look at the Twitter Q/A, you'll see Adam was asked a question about people adding masses to the queue in order to cause a dip, to which he replied something along the lines of... "It's not as wide spread as some would have you believe and terribly hard to make money out of it".

    So no... I don't think this is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I just don't wield that level of influence.



  • People continuously pump players on here based on nothing other than conjecture. Why should a reasoned argument (backed up with stats) about a player being overvalued be dismissed, when mindless pumping isn't? If you don't agree you can debate the point.

    I feel that youth prospects are ridiculously overvalued. I can see the trend and have successfully ridden the wave a few times, but I think it's utter madness to be ploughing money into some of these youngsters.

    A lot of people doing so never consider the opportunity cost of players they are buying.

    On 23 May, I could have bought 100 de Ligt for £284. Or, I could have bought 300 Bonucci, 300 Piqué and 300 Cazorla for £261, so 800 extra futures, de-risked across 3 players, for £23 less 🤔

    Right now, the capital appreciation on de Ligt would be £13, plus £5 in MB, so £18 'profit' (I use the term loosely as I need to sell to realise it).

    That £18 still doesn't cover the cost in the difference between how much cheaper I picked up 3 members of an FM2014 dream team for.

    On 23 May I could have got:
    300 Bonucci at 28p (£84)
    300 Piqué at 34p (£102)
    300 Cazorla at 25p (£75)

    Right now, I can INSTANT SELL my 300 quantities of the golden oldies for a 1p spread each:
    Bonucci - 30p (£90)
    Piqué - 48p (£144)
    Cazorla - 27p (£81)

    So £315.

    That means my ROI on investments so far are:

    de Ligt - 4.2% (market sell with commission + MB dividends)

    Or

    Golden oldies - 14.6% (instant sell with commission)

    Now, let's say that I don't want to instant sell the geriatrics, because they're old and I don't want to abandon them. Nor do I want to sell de Ligt as he's the best young centre back going. I will keep them all for another season.

    Based on last season, the golden oldies got a combined 18p in PB dividends (according to Noir's data). If they did that again across next season, that would be £54 in dividends (so a 21% ROI from buy price). To do similar, de Ligt would need 60p in dividends alone. Only Hazard, Ronaldo, Pogba and Messi got more than that themselves last season, and it's important to note that the majority of those were through MB (skewed towards Prem and GOATs).

    Who is more risky? In my opinion de Ligt. Just my opinion, of course.



  • @Yellow

    That's a solid break down on the golden oldies. To be honest, I'd written them off but you've opened my eyes a little there.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.