Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt



  • Said could rise could get media could could could basically your celebrating your cover comments where as your actual car crash predictions and will drop 1-2 day of move etc have not happened

    You could admit you was wrong you know dan it’s 28 days since the post and this is a forum your allowed to admit the dangerous levels of hype have not really been dangerous as I’d quite like 25p in media for a 3 p drop plus the fact had 20 days to sell at massive profit but hey you know best

    who’s nxt on the dangerous list just so I know



  • @Dan-The-Man just adding my 2 pence in and yes people have got burnt if say they bought in at £3.30 (depending on their strategy as he COULD be £3.70 with also divs earned in a year on top of that) but technically you were calling £2.89 inflated yet he's actually technically dropped only 3p from posting your original post whilst earning a few whack in divs so in hindsight so far you haven't called it right personally. Ive also watched the ticker and a small amount of shares were bought too. That said once it is an confirmed done deal maybe he keeps lowering but we will see. Defo won't go below £2.40 personally. No one can tell what his PB will be at Juve but he will get alot of touches, serious aerial threat, score the odd goal so he does seem like it will be a good move for those holding in my eyes especially as Juve play a fair amount of Sunday games too
    P.s. I don't hold this is purely unbiased comment



  • @therock

    The people that lost their 80p per future, wouldn't share your ridiculous view on this thread.

    I honestly thought you would have the integrity to admit you were wrong.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Highest got 3.37 current 2.86 your topic 2.89 so where’s the 80p that you most certainly havnt saved people

    For people to have lost 80p per share they would of had to buy at 3.86 mate (won 20p media since highest) Orless they opted out of MB like you did with Kane

    On a serious note the whole hoping someone who’s right will admit they are in the wrong is abit weird mate you should see someone about it. It’s a needy obsessive trait a shrink could prob sort it for you



  • @Shippers said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    yes people have got burnt

    and what word would you use to describe something that was about to burn people?

    'Dangerous' perhaps? :-)

    technically you were calling £2.89 inflated

    I completely stand by that.

    £2.89 was inflated as is his current price tag of £2.85 but you can't stop there as if I said that £2.89 was the peak of his price.

    These were my words in the summary...

    "In all likelihood he'll still grow in price"

    It has become evident that some people are so familiar with posts being "BUY BUY BUY" or "SELL SELL SELL", that they can't cope with nuanced situations.

    This thread, was basically a guide to De Ligt's price. It rose as predicted, now it's falling as predicted and in the middle of all that, some folks got burned as predicted and sadly some folk will get burned again because they will convince themselves that his drop is over... when it has barely even started.

    Defo won't go below £2.40 personally.

    I'd be interested to hear why you think that. What are your reasons behind saying £2.40?

    That's me genuinely asking btw... I want to see if I've overlooked something because I can't see any reason why he wouldn't drop down to the price tag of someone like Stones.

    No one can tell what his PB will be at Juve but he will get alot of touches, serious aerial threat, score the odd goal so he does seem like it will be a good move for those holding in my eyes especially as Juve play a fair amount of Sunday games too

    Given that Sarri is the new Juve boss, we have a decent idea of what his tactics will be and we can look at Chelsea players to see how their PB was last season.

    • 38p Luiz = 12p
    • 75p Alonso = 15p
    • 71p Rudiger = 8p
    • 44p Azpillicuta = 4p
    • 64p Emerson = 10p

    We can also look at Juventus defenders

    • £1.23 Cancelo = 18p
    • 80p Sandro = 12p
    • 37p Benatia = 0p
    • 34p Chiellini = 0p
    • 35p Bonucci = 13p

    Average cost of a defender at Juventus/Chelsea = 60p
    Average dividend of a defender at Juventus/Chelsea = 8p

    Seria A is a step up from playing at Ajax in the Eredivisie. No reason to think De Ligt can't hang with Bonucci given his Champions League performances against top clubs but equally, no reason to think he's going to dwarf his 13p dividends either once his transfer has finished. I mean... he might pick up a little more MB, with him being a big news story but given they are looking at signing Pogba... hard to see him competing with Pogba for MB.

    P.s. I don't hold this is purely unbiased comment

    Me neither... :) I just can't see how the hell this guy is going to keep his price tag, given that it's more than double EVERY defender mentioned.



  • @therock said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man

    Highest got 3.37 current 2.86 your topic 2.89 so where’s the 80p

    • He peaked at £3.43,
    • his current IS price is £2.67,
    • FI's commission would be 5p, so you'd get £2.62.

    £3.43 - £2.62 = 81p.

    he's won 20p media since highest

    He peaked 10 days ago, hasn't won a single penny of MB for 9 days according to Scout and won 1p on the 10th day, hence... 80p.

    0_1561251557617_Screen Shot 2019-06-23 at 01.58.53.png



  • This getting burned I don't get is every1 just flipping u do know u can hold for years



  • To include an instant sell plus commission makes you luck a tad desperate

    I’ll start a sell Neymar thread tomoz and claim I’m in the right wen he goes up 10p because if you sell him you lose 14p commission and 13p IS



  • @NewUser151265

    Yeah, sure. You can hold for a few years but in the case of an over inflated player like De Ligt... that's likely to be a terrible idea because his price is very likely going to fall in line with other defenders and defenders don't pick up enough PB/MB to make them expensive.

    Scroll up a few posts, to see the one on Juventus/Chelsea defenders where the average price per defender is 60p and the average dividend payout for last season was just 8p.

    There's no reason at all that he won't drop massively and all the evidence suggests he will.



  • @therock said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    To include an instant sell plus commission makes you luck a tad desperate

    Do you know how to sell a player without paying commission? Not including it makes it clear you don't know how money works.

    One of the dangers of buying a player that's about to crash is that it's hard to get out of them without instant selling. That £2.66 IS price, will most likely look fantastic when his transfer goes through.

    Seriously... go look at that post about the Juve players. Then come back and tell me you think he's going to stay in the £2 bracket.



  • @Dan-The-Man some players do just hold their value. Okay agreed defenders are less likely too but his PB scores could be quality we will just have wait and see. Im predicting £2.40 as people will be intrigued to see what his PB will be and how he will perform. Obvioulsy if he hasn't picked up a single PB win within about 3 weeks knowing FI he will drop more. MB in his first season will obviously be few and far between so won't pick up much there I expect. I think a fair argument would be to evaluate his price 3 weeks into the season and then you can come back and batter everyone thats given you abuse if he has dropped below £2 say 😂.



  • @Shippers

    I think his price will see another big drop... followed by a much larger drop over a period of months, maybe even a year. A long spiral down. There might be a few mini-spikes along the way.

    Look at Hazard's 3 month graph, you'll see him peak... then drop followed by a little bounce... followed by a drop, then he stabilises then drops again, then a much longer drop. I wouldn't like to guess where Hazard hits the bottom of the curve but I suspect he'll bounce faster than De Ligt given that he's a winger.

    Pogba's drop is a similar pattern. Big spike... drop, little bounce... mini-spike... drop... mini spike... much longer drop. It's a familiar pattern.



  • @Dan-The-Man OK putting aside the right/wrong argument RE the thread title and timing...

    With his price going forward...you might be overlooking his age. Comparing him to that list of juve/Chelsea players.

    He will be key for a rejuvenated Holland at the Euros... In possibly the best CB pairing we'll have seen for a decade.
    Hes also got a higher pb chance than a lot of them because as we've seen in the CL and Nations league he is a beast on corners... Can see him scoring 5-10 a season easily.

    I don't hold but there's enough going for him that I'd be surprised if he goes below £2...i don't know his spread but I'd imagine he could hold a value higher than £2 because people will make enough divs out of him to not merit the IS price.

    The other thing is market growth... I would have discounted it because it can be applied to all players... But thinking about it... The best players tend to benefit more from new money... So you could see him and vvd seeing more of a rise from natural growth than your everyday alonso/luiz/chiellini. I'd guess a lot of people can remember their first deposit going on reputation rather than FI scoring matrix.

    The final point... Remembering this is a 3 year hold... De Ligt knows he's a coveted player... So he will add a serie A title and maybe a couple of other trophies to his name in Italy then request a contract they can't afford and teams will offer money Juve can't turn down... So evry summer window he will be involved in transfer saga... Utd, Bayern, Madrid, psg, barca, Liverpool... I'd bet he will end up at one of those in the next 3 years and become the highest earning dividend defender



  • @Vespasian32 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Dan-The-Man OK putting aside the right/wrong argument RE the thread title and timing...

    With his price going forward...you might be overlooking his age.

    I dedicated a couple of paragraphs of the opening post to his age mate, so it's factored in to my original analysis.

    3 years is a LONG time in football. I mean... 3 years ago, John Stones broke the world record transfer fee for a defender and was going to be the next big thing. 3 years later, his price tag is 84p

    people will make enough divs out of him to not merit the IS price.

    Van Dijk picked up 39p in PB this season... and that's a season where he was...

    • PFA: Player of the Year
    • 9 x Goals + 4 x Assists from Centre Back
    • 21 x Clean Sheets in the Premier League
    • 6 x Clean Sheets in the Champions League (more than anyone else)
    • Champions League Winner/Premiership Runner Up

    It would be completely unreasonable to assume De Ligt will ever come close to matching Van Dijk's PB tally, given just how impressive of a season Van Dijk had and also, that PB-per-future has been significantly reduced, making it harder for even Van Dijk to get that tally again.

    Being sensible, let's say De Ligt replaces Bonucci as the CB goal threat and picks up Bonucci's 13p every year. That's 39p over the 3 year hold. Is that worth £2 per share for 3 years?

    The other thing is market growth...

    The growth tends to move towards MB players who gain PB. The chances of him picking up MB in the same team as Ronaldo are slim to none once his transfer news dies off and would fall even further if Pogba does sign.

    We can't rely on market growth either. A year ago, John Stones was £1.09, he's currently 84p. I don't know what his price was 3 years ago, when he joined City but my guess is he'd have been a very valuable player given the English/Man City/Record Transfer.

    I'd guess a lot of people can remember their first deposit going on reputation rather than FI scoring matrix.

    Yeah, that's a fair point like. A mate who I signed up with, told me to buy De Ligt on the first day we were on the platform. "He's gonna get a big move in summer"... he was right.

    Utd, Bayern, Madrid, psg, barca, Liverpool... I'd bet he will end up at one of those in the next 3 years and become the highest earning dividend defender

    Well, to you I say good luck and... I hope you get in at the rock bottom price. I think £2 is still WAY TOO HIGH but maybe I'm wrong.



  • I dont hold De Ligt but i think everybody is being shortsighted over the future price here.
    Dropping to under£2.50? Some saying under £2?
    Remember that the index is still in its infancy really. This time next year, De Ligt will probably be around the £4 mark, Hazard £7 etc. (Just look at your current portfolio and most of your holds of 6months+ have probably increased by at least 50% I imagine)

    And it's a 3 year "bet".
    I think a lot of users need to remember that this platform is essentially investment-based (growth and income over time) as a opposed to a quick fix.

    Sit back and relax

    The £££ will come to you, you don't have to chase it



  • @ScouseSte but there are good investments and bad investments. When I first noticed him at about £1.20 he was a great investment. When he was at the £2.80 Mark he was a risky investment, able to make a short term profit if you sold at the right time. At £3.40 he was a terrible investment.

    Yes the growth in the platform is going to rise prices in general. But your not going to get anywhere near a good return by keeping money in players that are already over inflated.



  • @ScouseSte to put it more concisely. There is a difference between a player dropping because of a short term market reaction, and a player dropping because they were over inflated. I think this was the latter.



  • @NewUser303261 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @ScouseSte but there are good investments and bad investments. When I first noticed him at about £1.20 he was a great investment. When he was at the £2.80 Mark he was a risky investment, able to make a short term profit if you sold at the right time. At £3.40 he was a terrible investment.

    Yes the growth in the platform is going to rise prices in general. But your not going to get anywhere near a good return by keeping money in players that are already over inflated.

    I've got 20K in a 1.4% ISA, so a safe boring return of £280. We can all do very little on here and easily outperform this.



  • @Martyn-B unless you invest badly. If you invest well there are great returns to be made. I think there are many reason to believe de ligt is a particually poor investment at this time.



  • @NewUser303261 Fair enough. I missed the boat on him so I have no dog in this fight.


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