Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt



  • We're in the off-season now, so the market responds a little differently to the players. If the index continues to grow then there won't be too many worries about De Ligt's price.

    There's a massive bias to young players with 12 of the top 20 players under 22. Some of which barely play (or at all in Greenwood's case).

    De Ligt is a passing defender that scores goals, he'll join a top side likely to win their league and so he'll be in the headlines (age again) and get through a long way in the Champions League.

    Again, whilst the index grows, it's quite easy to get growth from players simply through the Ponzi scheme effect.

    I'd be more concerned with Pogba's value. If he leaves Man Utd, will he even be worth £3-3.50 at current prices?



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    @Shippers said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    Given that Sarri is the new Juve boss, we have a decent idea of what his tactics will be and we can look at Chelsea players to see how their PB was last season.

    • 38p Luiz = 12p
    • 75p Alonso = 15p
    • 71p Rudiger = 8p
    • 44p Azpillicuta = 4p
    • 64p Emerson = 10p

    Off topic.... but doesn’t this mean David Luiz is value??



  • @ScouseSte said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    Remember that the index is still in its infancy really. This time next year, De Ligt will probably be around the £4 mark, Hazard £7 etc.

    I think a lot of users need to remember that this platform is essentially investment-based (growth and income over time) as a opposed to a quick fix.

    Ste, I hear you but what you just said, is somewhat of myth, spread largely by people who don't know it's a myth.

    Sure, if you open up the current top 100, chances are really high that if you click on a player he's grown but what happened to the players who were in the top 100 this time last year and are now squad players?

    There's only 50 players above the £2 barrier on a platform with 2800 players.

    • John Stones was £1.09 last year, he's 88p now, won the Prem 2 years on the bounce
    • Chiallini was 43p last year, is now 33p after winning the league
    • Rudiger was £1.11 last year, he's 72p now after winning the Europa League
    • Varane was 77p is now 64p, despite winning the World Cup on the back of 4 Champions League wins.
    • Naby Keita was £1.91 last year, is now £1.52 after winning the Champions League
    • Kevin De Bruyn was £2.52 last year is now £2.40, won the treble
    • Thauvin was £1.73 a year ago is now £1.69 a week go he was £1.57
    • Lukku was £1.70 is currently £1.50
    • Aubameyang was £1.49 is £1.32
    • Aguero was £2.06 is now £1.45 after winning the treble
    • Ronaldo was £4.43 is £2.66
    • Pjanic was £1.33 is £1.20 after winning the league with Juve
    • Milinkovic-Savic was £1.37 is £.1.29

    You could point to any of these players and give a reason for their individual decline, be it age, rape, injury, position, etc but the point is, there's a lot of players who decline... many including some of the best players in the world.

    Let's look at some big transfers from last year...

    • N'Zonzi won the World Cup and moved to Roma, was 45p is 30p
    • Shaqiri moved to Liverpool was 83p, peaked at 1.04 is currently 56p
    • Mahrez moved to Man City was £1.15 dropped to 65p is 90p
    • Sokratis moved to Arsenal, was 45p is 29p
    • Lenglet was 63p moved to Barcelona is 52p
    • Jean Seri was 73p moved to Fulham is 53p
    • Odriozola was 64p moved to Madrid is 44p (worth researching)
    • Lucas Torreira was peaked at £1.30 joined Arsenal is 80p
    • Nainggolan was 61p moved to Inter, dropped as low as 22p is 31p
    • De Vrij was 65p moved to Inter, bottomed out at 30p is 41p
    • Arthur moved to Barcelona, peaked at £1.12 is currently 92p
    • Fabinho peaked at 93p moved to Liverool won the Champions League, dropped to 49p is currently 57p
    • Emre Can, moved to Juventus, peaked at 55p, is 48p
    • Fred, moved to Man Utd, peaked at £1.06 is currently 62p
    • Thomas Lemar was peaked at 95p is 82p
    • Higuain moved to Chelsea, peaked at £1.47 is now 72p
    • Courtois peaked at 62p crashed to 30p is now 40p
    • Jorginho peaked at £1.34, crashed to 87p is £1.02
    • Alisson hit at £1.01 transfering to Liverpool, had the year of his career, is 75p

    Now look... some of the names on this list are arguably incredibly hot prospects and might one day recover and even eclipse their peak from last year... so I'm not saying it's impossible for that to happen.

    BUT... the drop on some of these players was massive. Looking at everyones curve, Fred seems like he's worth a punt... (Tip of the day.... based solely on the curve pattern across these players, so take that for what it's worth)

    Now, we could say, well De Ligt has already dropped from his peak, so he's probably going to be this price next year. The evidence suggests that might be the case but what is clear... is that everyone of those transfers dropped massively before rising back up to their current price, which still isn't the same as it was last year. So... getting rid now... and buying back in 4 months time, seems like the best bet. Esecially given that the average bet is held for days never mind a year.



  • @therock

    wen he’s at 2.30 gloat

    0_1570490297918_Screen Shot 2019-10-08 at 00.18.00.png

    Suck it!



  • @Dan-The-Man 😂😂😂😂 tbf I thought he would/could of held around £2.30 myself, the matrix changes have been a little unkind to CB's.



  • You should of named it dangerous levels of hype the football index how it’s goin



  • @Shippers

    Nah mate, it never made sense that he'd hold any kind of value because was massively inflated. Look at the other defenders he's playing with.

    Sandro 80p
    Bonucci 38p
    Chiellini 32p

    Hell, with exception to Ronaldo, Pjanic and Ramsey at £1.27 the rest of his squad mates are under a pound and most of them are under 50p.



  • @therock

    Over the last 10 months, I've seen plenty of folk say that this time last year was rough, but Try January sent the market in to over drive, which then picked up momentum, as we got to the business end of the season.

    I reckon we'll see the same again. It's not unusual for folk to lose interest in football during the early months of a season.



  • yeah I hope it picks up gives me an interest in games I wouldn’t normally care about

    already thinking united and city be spending in jan so think it’s gotta pick up soon but think nxt few weeks be rough



  • @Dan-The-Man I personally wasn't really taken into account other prices at Juve, maybe my downfall there but I thought he'd hold his price a little longer based on high scoring PBs at Juve (though not the worse scores by any stretch). Learning curve and weirdly a good one as I didn't hold so interesting to see where his price has gone and fallen too. Centre backs do seem to of taken a slight hit though following the matrix changes.



  • @Shippers

    I'm not sure if it's a case of the centre backs taking a hit, or perhaps the full backs getting a boost ...

    Either way, @Dan-The-Man never forgets!! 🤣

    🎶'He's making a list, he's checkin it twice, he's gonna find out who's arsey or nice ... danthemans comin to town, danthemans coming to town'🎶



  • @Shippers

    Interesting observation. Can't say I've noticed the trend to be honest but the futures I have in Van Dijk have certainly seen better days.

    Allison is back from injury, so probably not a bad time to get on him to be fair. They've conceded constantly with him out.



  • @johnboywalker

    Like an elephant!

    Now...

    0_1570495985477_Screen Shot 2019-10-08 at 01.52.11.png



  • He was still the biggest riser and won second most divs for weeks after this dangerously overhyped post tho.



  • @Vespasian32

    You mean... he did exactly what the post says he would....

    You can suck it too!



  • @Dan-The-Man 😂 😂 still wins the award for the most bizarre title thread ever. Should have been 'amazing buy... De ligt' and it would have made sense.



  • This post is deleted!


  • This aged interesting, if not predictably



  • @NewUser303261 said in Dangerous Levels of Hype: Matthijs De Ligt:

    This aged interesting, if not predictably

    Yeah, just a shame the thread went south.

    His graph suggests he might be in for an up turn now, especially as Demiral is out injured for 7 months. Hard to say for sure, given he hasn't done anything to warrant the price tag but he is still a young talent who will be going to the Euro's and now he has a real opportunity to prove himself at Juve.

    0_1579389266830_Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 23.08.16.png


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