Risky Rumours

  • Hi all, ive just joined FI and its my first post so go easy on me. I've enjoyed looking through the forum and find it a big help in trying to get my head around the platform which is a bit of a mind field to be honest so Thank you to the people who post. My question is do people genuinely risk large amounts on players when rumours start. Take Dybala for an example there are loads of links to Man Utd but one day it's on and the next it's not. Do people normally wait for a particular source or do people even wait until a player is at the training ground about to sign ?

  • @NewUser354220 Welcome to FI, with regards to transfers it’s really hard to answer because it all depends what you’re looking for ie quick flip or long term hold. Most traders will more than likely sell up on players building up to a transfer because unless the player is good for MB and joining an English club you could expect a fall in price after the transfer is completed. When I joined 7 months ago I initially bought players that I expected to transfer in the next year.

  • Dybala's price is pretty high already so you're probably not gonna see massive rises on him. If united had a confirmed 50mil bid today he's go up. However not as much as moussa dembele did the other day. The news has also been very back and forth on him so people see it as risky and unpredictable.
    The thing is the rumours for most big players started a good while back. In fact its best to invest before the rumours even come. Look at dybala's 3month graph. People knew he was unhappy and not getting loads of game time.
    The problem with investing now is a lot of the big players have transfers to prem already baked into their price and thus the current downside is larger and more likely than the smaller upside.
    If you see a big development and can get to it early you'll make some good money but many have kinda maxed out their cap app at this moment in time. Unless you can find a hidden untouched lower player.
    The earlier you can get in the more money worth putting down.
    Quick flips like locky says still a good viable strategy.
    But Pb shift focus is already starting to happen imo.

  • @Gregolocky2018 Thankyou

  • @LuaLua Thankyou for taking the time to advise I suppose it's going to be a rollercoaster of a journey but unfortunately I'm not one of those who has a 5 figure sum to invest so I think I'll be looking to make a little profit here and their and hopefully build a decent portfolio. FI has got me off sky bet though where I hardly ever won.

  • @NewUser354220 Move to pb players if you want safety is all I'll say. Should start to see good rises for beginning of next season.

  • For summer transfer rumours the best time to be buying was 2-3 months ago. If not longer. Basically you can make educated guesses on who will have transfer speculation in the summer and buy accordingly.

    That way if any speculation fails to materialise then you got in before the main gamble and you avoid losing much real money. If the rumours do come then the skill/luck in knowing when to sell to lock in your profit.

    Prices can drop like a stone once a transfer is confirmed so beware. Traders may buy into a player expecting a move to Man United
    You might hear people say that this is built into his price. If he then moves to Napoli then that price is only going down.

    Personally I have tried to buy players that have a bit more about them than just transfer spec. So if I miss the big sell off then I'm happy to hold as they are good for PB etc.

    There's still money to be made now on transfer spec but it's risky. I wouldn't gamble too much.

    The index works in cycles and for me the safest strategy is to get in ahead of the curve on these. Right now I would recommend looking into players who will perform well for PB next season. Might still be a few more weeks of fairly stagnant prices there.

    Come the start of the season others will be buying up on them and if you chose wisely you'll be sitting on nice profits.

    Beyond the cycles there are lots of ways to flip some profits. Buying into injured players has worked well for me. The winter breaks can have a big impact on prices. I lost a bit on German players, not realising that people would sell up as the break approached. But then I made more than I lost when traders were buying back into them.

    Stick around the forum. Generally a good and knowledgeable bunch.

  • @Allams-Out much appreciated advice Thank you

  • @NewUser354220

    All excellent advice.

    This place is a great starting point to learn the ropes and avoid the many mistakes that we all made, before you got here ...

    The forum is starting to get a bit 'pumpy' with users constantly trying to flog the next big thing.

    If you can filter through the shit, and identify a handful of users that you can trust for advice, you wont go far wrong.

    All the best, and keep asking questions!! 👍

  • @johnboywalker Thankyou, I'm flicking through all the old comments now and also started to listen to the podcasts. I agree it appears a few do try and post comments about players that makes you wonder if they've got money in them. I can also see this is a great forum for people who are not 100% sure on an investment and want someone who has better knowledge to give advice. The replies to my first question on here is very much appreciated.

  • @NewUser354220
    I think always assume when people are talking about players, they already have bought them.
    And tbh it just makes sense, why would ppl big up players they don't own?

  • @MrWh1te Totally agree.
    Why on earth are you going to big up a player if you already don't own that player.
    Maybe there is the odd exception to this.

  • @Gazz127
    Also, if they hold, they will normally genuinely believe in their player. I think genuine pump and dumps very rare on here because so many real opportunities for making money.

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