Promotion exit strategies?



  • Hi all,

    I was wondering what people views are on the end of June.

    Clearly there is a high probability that prices will drop quite a lot as people have pumped money in that they cant afford to get "free money". A lot will take this out. Some will wait a little in the hope that they don't get caught in a slide, others will try to ditch as soon as possible.

    More popular players will decrease the most, as they will have the most £ invested in them, especially with Media madness.

    I was thinking about a strategy where you exit the most vulnerable players a day or two early, and look for a safer / more stable player (one that is unlikely to have had much pumped in them), with a decent spread (best I've seen is 2.7%) - e.g. Random choice Steven Bergwijn - £1.42 buy, £1.38 sell.

    Taking an example. Say you pumped £10k in - and bought TAA @ £2.75 now to get your £1k bonus. That would get you 3,636.4 Futures. He has a current sell price of £2.67 (lets assume only instant sell is available post promo as no one is buying). Then lets assume a 10% drop after the promo. After commission you'd get £8563 back.

    Instead you could switch out TAA the day before the promo ends, buy an unpopular player that is unlikely to have the 10% drop and then you'd come out with £9,062.

    Obviously these examples are using flat prices apart from the Promo drop.

    What do you guys think, have you seen patterns at the end of promos before that back this theory up, or contradict it?

    Essentially boils down to a double commission hit versus the likely drop in certain types of player.



  • Personally I have invested in players who, although they will likely drop a bit, will go up way higher during the season. I am betting at least a year on my holds.



  • I agree. Holding is certainly the best strategy is you can. Personally I have put money in which I need to take back out (don’t tell the wife!), and I imagine a lot will have done similar.

    I will need to extract about £8k.



  • I wouldn't over-think it.

    Firstly I don't see any players dropping more than the 10% you're gonna get anyway - not forgetting the growth you will have seen in that time.

    Secondly, anyone who is stretching themselves to maximise the bonus probably hasn't even put their money in yet. If part 1 is anything to go by there will be a mad rush on 30th June and that's the money that will be taken out straight away on 1st July.

    Thirdly, you can almost guarantee that FI will be using July to drive a big marketing push for new users meaning that any drops that do occur will be quickly offset.



  • @janner73 July and August are normally the biggest months for rises , along with January. So any drops should soon be recovered.



  • OK - thanks guys.

    So - key messages I'm taking from this are; 10% drop unlikely (anyone have stats on what happened last time?). Best to hold into July / August and ignore the initial drops (in fact opportunity to buy in at this point). So;

    • Hold the players,
    • Don't take the double commission hit
    • If you do need to sell then do gradually a few weeks after Promo ends

    Thanks.



  • @DrDog

    are you only investing for the bonus? If so why would you consider someone like TAA in the first place? Players under 50p generally have just 1p spreads and only cost 1p commission to sell. Just spread 10k over them (or however much you were going to put in and subsequently take out).

    I also think your assumption of a 10% drop post promotion is too broad and too pessimistic. Some players will drop more than others, some will drop 10% but certainly not all. You can see who is most likely to drop and by how much by monitoring price changes during the promotion and weighing it against potential reasons for change in value.



  • @Vespasian32
    I’ve put a lump sum in just for bonus and just done exactly as you said,mainly spread over 50-75p players mainly 18-21 and I’ve had more than big enough rise to take my cash out with IS have my bonus and some profit aswell



  • @Ynot_b I will probably do the same - but when its done I will reinvest the bonus money - and I think a lot will be similar... so should see some growth.

    Its a mental state... ignore any growth during the promotion as 'fake growth' and then you wont be disappointed after the promo... in fact you should still see a rise compared to the pre promo prices.

    At the moment my net during period is +£4800... I will get it to 20k... then take out 20k but leaving in the 2k. I wouldn't have put another £2k into the index if not for the bonus.



  • @Vespasian32
    I will for the first time be taking some of the profit and my original money out to pay for a holiday but my balance will be higher than before the bonuses started,unless the whole of the youth market drops 20% in the next 5 weeks



  • 0_1559121815517_52350A87-EA40-4042-8075-FEB7D7A12A49.png

    Since start of bonus period



  • I’d just buy players who you want for the season - good for PB etc. Then keep them , if there’s a dip (which I’m not even sure there will be ) they will rise again



  • I've put in £1500 for the part 3 bonus all invested into players for next season and PB players, all currently up. Had a steady rise ever since the part 1 was announced, about 0.5% ROI a day (on total £5k deposits).

    Worried that there will be a big drop off with everyone withdrawing funds after their bonus, but I'm keeping my money invested in the same players and hopefully ride out any dips going into next season.



  • @DrDog first of all - great thread...was going to post something similar myself.

    My situation is that I was planning to slowly take out funds towards a house deposit after bonus part 1. However with price drops after first bonus and lack of investments in part 2 I left majority in.
    Now for part 3 I've put some extra back in. My conundrum is whether to take it out with the cap appreciation and sacrifice the bonus. Or put more in and wait to ditch after bonus ends.
    (Note I don't need all the money for a deposit, but was going to take 50% to go towards it). Annoyingly I don't have a set date when the funds would be needed for the house.

    In terms of expected dips after bonus....I was in India and sat with a 10% profit at 3am UK time (waking up with time difference). Saw this slowly edd away during the morning to stabilise at about 4-5%. So would expect similar within the first day or so...

    In an ideal world I would just look to leave and let the dips and rises play out naturally. Like all investing you should aim for the long term and I can only see growth!



  • For me it depends how long your intending to keep your money in the index and how active you plan to be.

    For example Kane and Sterling... with the Euros next summer and probable new money coming in next season what do you think they will be worth this time next year?

    I agree there will most likley be a dip but I wouldn't expect i could sell up and buy back in at a better outcome so im happy to let it be short term.



  • Exit strategy!??!?!? I'm not thinking of exiting anytime soon!



  • @Abaalan If I were you I would market sell what you need to on the 30th June. You have no chance of waiting for the bonus, then market selling in a short time frame.



  • @Timothee-Atouba so basically sell up prior to the bonus and hope that I get max cap appreciation?

    This was my initial thoughts too.



  • @Abaalan If it were me yes. If you wait for the bonus how much will you lose immediately in depreciation? On top of that it’ll take forever to market sell, by which time they’ll be more depreciation and spreads for IS will be huge.
    Your players should fly off the shelf on the last day of the bonus.



  • @Timothee-Atouba thanks that's a good plan. Means I also won't be tempted to drop anymore in beforehand to get added bonus!


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