Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020



  • @Marco27 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    Took me a while to find this post:

    https://forums.footballindex.co.uk/topic/3776/current-footie-status/25

    8 months ago we were hovering around the 40k mark and we've seen the number increase 150% ish since then. By That logic, I reckon it should reach 324,963 by the Euro 2020.

    But there is a compounding effect to add, we’ve reached that with this number of user. If you try to project the number/increase in users it’ll grow by more than that.

    Time last we didn’t have regular spots on talksport, forest shirts, regular ads on Sky!



  • It's been growing at about 10k a month since I joined. This should pick up a little, so at 12k a month average for the next year I think it will be 243,562 come Euro 2020.



  • 195,00000



  • @kristiang85 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    It's been growing at about 10k a month since I joined. This should pick up a little, so at 12k a month average for the next year I think it will be 243,562 come Euro 2020.

    But if the 10000 between 80000 and 90000, rise of 12.5%, took a month.

    The 10000 between 160000 and 170000, will take half as long, because the base is twice as big and the rise percentage wise is half as much. So it’ll be 10000 every fortnight.

    Obviously market forces at the time will have a small difference.



  • @Ringers To be honest, I and everyone on here will hope you are right.

    Just imagine if FI announced an expansion into even 1 or 2 European countries in the build up to the Euro. The platform would explode!!!



  • @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @kristiang85 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    It's been growing at about 10k a month since I joined. This should pick up a little, so at 12k a month average for the next year I think it will be 243,562 come Euro 2020.

    But if the 10000 between 80000 and 90000, rise of 12.5%, took a month.

    The 10000 between 160000 and 170000, will take half as long, because the base is twice as big and the rise percentage wise is half as much. So it’ll be 10000 every fortnight.

    Obviously market forces at the time will have a small difference.

    I think there will be slowdowns though, hence why I didn't go down the percentage route.

    Look at November last year or February this year.



  • Yeah i think it will go far beyond double. Growth is slow for any new company but the way things are going now it seems the growth is speeding up. 200000 seems a low figure for me 400000 or beyond sounds more likely



  • @Black-wolf said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    Yeah i think it will go far beyond double. Growth is slow for any new company but the way things are going now it seems the growth is speeding up. 200000 seems a low figure for me 400000 or beyond sounds more likely

    There will definitely be slow periods; we have to remember that and reassure newer members when it happens. Even if its only a couple of weeks it seems a LONG time when your portfolio is stagnant and people get inpatient.

    I like the optimism but I really doubt it will be near 400k in a year.

    I absolutely hope I'm wrong though :) (I'll buy you a beer at the 2020 trader meet in Barbados if I am haha)



  • @kristiang85 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @kristiang85 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    It's been growing at about 10k a month since I joined. This should pick up a little, so at 12k a month average for the next year I think it will be 243,562 come Euro 2020.

    But if the 10000 between 80000 and 90000, rise of 12.5%, took a month.

    The 10000 between 160000 and 170000, will take half as long, because the base is twice as big and the rise percentage wise is half as much. So it’ll be 10000 every fortnight.

    Obviously market forces at the time will have a small difference.

    I think there will be slowdowns though, hence why I didn't go down the percentage route.

    Look at November last year or February this year.

    But think about what you said there and xref it to @Marco27 post above. We are trying to work out future performance based on past performance and past performance already includes the slow periods which cause you to think it’ll be lower



  • @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @kristiang85 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @kristiang85 said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    It's been growing at about 10k a month since I joined. This should pick up a little, so at 12k a month average for the next year I think it will be 243,562 come Euro 2020.

    But if the 10000 between 80000 and 90000, rise of 12.5%, took a month.

    The 10000 between 160000 and 170000, will take half as long, because the base is twice as big and the rise percentage wise is half as much. So it’ll be 10000 every fortnight.

    Obviously market forces at the time will have a small difference.

    I think there will be slowdowns though, hence why I didn't go down the percentage route.

    Look at November last year or February this year.

    But think about what you said there and xref it to @Marco27 post above. We are trying to work out future performance based on past performance and past performance already includes the slow periods which cause you to think it’ll be lower

    Unless I misunderstood, your original reply to me was talking about exponential growth and I was saying it will be tempered somewhat.

    Anyway Im generally a cautious optimist, it's my nature. Hopefully I'm underestimating and this place will be rocketing to whole new levels over the next year.



  • I’ve just tried to add a bit of science to this using a couple of online calculators.

    Using footsie figures from 23 October 42796 and today (8 months) 100512.

    The compound growth rate per month over that period was 11.26%

    Using this figure to work out the future compound growth rate for 23rd June 2020 gives 361648.



  • @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    I’ve just tried to add a bit of science to this using a couple of online calculators.

    Using footsie figures from 23 October 42796 and today (8 months) 100512.

    The compound growth rate per month over that period was 11.26%

    Using this figure to work out the future compound growth rate for 23rd June 2020 gives 361648.

    Further. If you use the figure on 21st jan from stu’s stats, 55576. It won’t be precise as I have used it as the 23rd Jan to make the time periods equal. It predicts 416632 on 23/6/20

    But for balance. The figure for April, 87422 taken on 22/4
    Predicts 232280 on 23/6/20

    So I can accurately predict that on the 23/6/20 the footsie will be somewhere between zero and a bloody big number!



  • @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @Ringers said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    I’ve just tried to add a bit of science to this using a couple of online calculators.

    Using footsie figures from 23 October 42796 and today (8 months) 100512.

    The compound growth rate per month over that period was 11.26%

    Using this figure to work out the future compound growth rate for 23rd June 2020 gives 361648.

    Further. If you use the figure on 21st jan from stu’s stats, 55576. It won’t be precise as I have used it as the 23rd Jan to make the time periods equal. It predicts 416632 on 23/6/20

    But for balance. The figure for April, 87422 taken on 22/4
    Predicts 232280 on 23/6/20

    So I can accurately predict that on the 23/6/20 the footsie will be somewhere between zero and a bloody big number!

    That period did have a share split, and a few bonuses. Certainly the best calculation will be July 15th 2018 (after World Cup finished) to July 15th 2019 (once the post-bonus trading has settled down) - definitely we should revisit your calculators on that in a couple of weeks.



  • These figures seem Optimistic but wont be complaining if they turn out to be correct .

    Cant see a continuation of the regular deposit bonuses for ever and Share Splits so growth will need to be more natural in the market with new Customers being added each month .



  • Can anyone tell me what the other number in blue next to the footie means please? Just interested as its -138.98 this morning.



  • @Impulsesplurger said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    Can anyone tell me what the other number in blue next to the footie means please? Just interested as its -138.98 this morning.

    That's how many points it gained or lost since yesterday



  • @kristiang85 ok thanks, but what do the points stand for🤔?



  • @Impulsesplurger said in Predict the FOOTIE on first day of EURO 2020:

    @kristiang85 ok thanks, but what do the points stand for🤔?

    It is the value of all the money in the index, based on a value of 1000 on day 1. Nobody knows that value, but generally there is 135x more money in the index now than when it started.

    This is what I understand anyway.



  • @kristiang85 ah, ok I see👍.


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