Thought I'd try and gauge some opinion on here: I can't make my mind up whether Sergio Aguero's seriously under-valued, or about where you'd expect him to be.
I saw on FI's Twitter poll earlier today, he got more than half the vote on who was better value on the index between him and Kane, and he returned the highest performance yield in January (albeit helped by everyone else having a winter break, of course) and third-highest total yield. Only Sanchez and Coutinho yielded more.
He started January close to 3.31, and after a brief dip seems to have settled around the 3.25 mark. He was one of the few notable players not to have a major rise when the Index soared this week so presumably there's not much love for him at the moment (or no new investment, anyway). Is it just a case of people using their money for players higher up the index? He is still in the top 25, after all, so could tie up a lot of money.
My own view (and the reason I expected to see him valued higher) is this: City are competing on four fronts still, so plenty of chances for little bites of MB (like the 2p he bagged in January after his winner in the Carabao Cup SF first-leg on a triple media day), and likelihood of goals in the Premier League and Champions League. The longer City stay in all four comps too, the more chance there is of oddly re-arranged games. They already have (assuming no FA Cup replays) Premier League fixtures on a Thursday and Monday early in March, where he'll have much less competition for PB if he can bag a few goals. He's not likely to play every game, of course, once Gabriel Jesus is back, but even when he doesn't play it attracts headlines. Then there's the World Cup in the summer, where he'll be playing for one of the biggest teams in the tournament. He'll be competing with Messi for PB (assuming the current system carries through) but he's long overdue some goals at a World Cup and his January buzz wins have already shown what that can do to skew the PB in his favour. Plus, he seems to always be linked with a move in the summer, and this time out - with him likely to be in his final City contract - they could actually generate a bit of traction.
So, what's the verdict?
I would be incline to agree he should be higher - there are a few caveats though
-He has a bit of history as being terrible at media buzz (to the extent that he featured on a do-not-buy video in the days before PB). He's improved a bit since then but he still under-performs given everything should be set up for him to be very good at media. City seem to be a graveyard for media buzz points.
- He probably needs to score multiple goals to win PB - you can say that about other players but they are generally cheaper or better at media.
- He's likely to move abroad which will probably see a price drop and I guess its probably going to be relatively straight forward - not a Coutinho type chase
- Jesus - as above , its hard enough to get media points for City when you play every game. When you are competing for your spot its even harder - same goes for Jesus
So to sum up, yeah I would agree he has potential for growth and probably is a good short-term buy but there are some reasons why he isn't higher.
@NewUser111414 this in my opinion is a prime example of someone looking at a player based on their opinion of him as a footballer. Yes aguero is world class but he doesn't win big buzz dividends and hes very unlikely to move on to a bigger club. At least not in England six and see his price rising further.
If you ask me it's a matter of time before he returns to Argentina and then his price will plummet.
I wouldn't go near him myself.
Logically though he should pick up media - as a goalscorer for a team likely to win stuff he should have the headlines - like I said historically he hasn't so it comes down to whether you think it will turn. He's a good example of a player that if I owned/bought that I would be looking to sell the day before the WC starts - I wouldn't risk holding him through the summer.
@mike778 logically yes he should i agree but the fact is he doesn't. He might rise for world cup so that's fair enough but I certainly wouldn't buy any new now to make any further cash.
@Stevo That's fair enough, except he did well for PB dividends in January which is what prompted my question. Agree with the risk of a long-term buy though. Given he's only 29, I can't personally see him going back to Argentina just yet but I also don't think he'll join another Premier League club after City. Short-term though, it will be interesting to see if there's any movement as we get towards the business end of the season and the World Cup.
@NewUser111414 i'm tempted to add a few now - sterling is off form, jesus hasn't been that impressive. He's likely to play a big part in the champions league/title run in/world cup + new users are likely to grab a few