If it turns out to be introducing Women's footy I think I'll have a job convincing the wife that's why I'm suddenly watching it ;-) on the surface you'd think it could open up to a new demographic but most women I know are anti-gambling and men who follow that football also follow the men's game anyway. (I think!) Dodgy ground even commenting on this one... I'll get me coat.
Posts made by Agatello
RE: Share Split Winners?
RE: Share Split Winners?
I have loaded up but on a much smaller scale. The reason being that more people are switched on to the GK potential than last time plus I was quite late seeing the clues that Media could well be opening up the squad. So going massive on players that have already risen a bit carries more risk than last time where my liability was nothing being offset by a 10% bonus.
On top of that I bought every keeper going last time and if you take an example of Maignan, he keeps clean sheets for fun but he ain't winning Media any time soon.
I've bought a shit load of Heaton cos I think he'll be England number 1 but not so many Lloris n Leno.
No-one knows anything for sure but it's worth bearing in mind.
Share Split Winners?
Unless you've been sleeping under a rock for the past 2 or 3 months you know full well there's another SS on the horizon, but who are the most likely to benefit from this?
Mathematically it "should" be business as usual HOWEVER the truth is the current dividend structure simply doesn't lend itself to a neat division whatever number you use, unless you're happy to mess around with decimals which in my opinion looks shoddy.
In turn, the big AC has stated that they will be as generous as they can be when re-evaluating the new payout structure, so we know for certain (well 99%) that there will be changes and the number of maintenance windows being used would back that up.
So, if you believe anything you read you'll probably be as convinced as I am that a War Chest is being held back to react to the new dividends when they are announced on Monday the 18th March. It's important to note, if you're new to the platform, that announcements move the market even if the implementation is days or weeks away.
Which means that (unless every dividend category is increased by the same %, which is highly unlikely) there will be certain types of players that will rocket when the Market is reopened (I think I've read 2 hours after the announcement - but I might have dreamt that one!).
So the question is who and why!
To answer this you should try and put yourself in FI's shoes, without bragging I managed to do this during the last announcement and made 8k from second guessing that FI would introduce some value to Goalkeepers, which turned out to be the Clean Sheet Dividend.
So what do FI really want? If we take the Spread out of the conversation for a moment, we're left with their lifeblood - 2% commission (along with Happy Customers, which most of us are with such a brilliant concept!). In this sense nothing makes them (and us if we get it right) more money than mass volatility. "Will he, won't he" transfer news and injuries are a great source of this but the new mechanism of in-play dividends (IPD) stimulates trading rather than sitting on a hold for 3 years waiting for the divs to drip in so my guess would be that; FI, without detriment to their core principles of PB and MB, will encourage more trading in this area than any other.
Now take into consideration the amount of money invested in Media Cash Cow's like Pogba and Neymar, making changes that would significantly weaken the value of the top players would no doubt cause uproar with traders who have majorly invested in them based on existing dividends, so I firmly believe that FI will also increase the dividends available in this area too but not quite as much.
The water here get's slightly mirky if you read into Mike Bohan's tweet asking whether Media should be opened up to the Squad! Plus, during testing there seems to be a suggestion that Media may also become tiered during Match Days too. Put simply, Pogba would theoretically be worth even more as it's highly likely that he'd make the top 3 on a ridiculous basis.
Where does this leave PB?, my favourite mechanic on the platform (and I'm sure for many others too). Well it can't be neglected that's for sure as it would alienate a huge chunk of their customer base so I suspect they have plans to improve this area here too.
Reading the above probably suggests that "everyone's a winner" and we all know there must be losers as reserved war chests will not be the only source of investment. A huge amount of money will also be moved from one type to another, we're not all millionaires with spare cash to burn.
After writing all of the above I won't finish off without making my own predictions and I'm being honest in saying I haven't loaded up on certain players prior to writing this (certainly not 10k splashed on keepers like last time.)
I think the losers will be the youth and that doesn't actually mean they'll crash, just that I don't think they'll benefit from a rise driven by the announcement (unless FI do something right outside of the box).
The big winners? in the main I think it'll be very spread out BUT I think that the area that made me a fortune last time could strike twice. We saw that Alisson, when in the top 200, was a media whore, the huge transfer fee helped but GK heroics certainly grab headlines. So IF IF IF they do open it up to the Squad then I think some well known keepers could be really valuable. If they increase the CS payments as part of the IPD then we could see them getting even more value.
That's my 2 pence, I'm not loaded up on them like before and just an opinion. It's gonna be a very interesting day regardless!
RE: Football Index FAQs
@Keegan's-Bluff ha yeah that was me. Although at the time keepers were more or less pointless.
Made a packet on them actually being given value but in hindsight the 2p CS Dividend has turned into a damp squib so there's not much value in them now either really.
Maybe one day they'll get their own category OR an extension to the 30 days.... and if I manage to see that coming before anyone else I'm gonna go into clairvoyancy ;-)
RE: Gave up twice......
When the Index eventually plateaus, which it "shouldn't" when the football mad countries are still to get on board (let's face it, Ireland, Sweden and Canada aren't crazy for the beautiful game), then the real trading skill will start to become prevalent. Even today there's players rising 30% on a daily basis and the FOOTIE has stabilised around the 45k mark.
In one way I can't wait for that because I like testing myself, rather than relying on the FOOTIE to just keep growing as a given.
RE: Today's IPO's - Duncan and Dack
I'm not surprised by Dack's price but honestly thought Duncan would rise higher, that's not me saying that these kids should be as high as they are, simply a comparison to other youngsters on the Index.
Right now that's over time to concentrate on G&A/In Play for December!! Gonna be wild I reckon!
Today's IPO's - Duncan and Dack
Haven't been doing the reviews recently as I honestly think a 12 yr old playing Championship Manager could add as much value but today even though I haven't got time to go into detail I thought I'd offer some benchmarks for 2 that will certainly fly today.
First of all, take Bobby Duncan, Gerard's Cousin (add Xp for that pointless fact), £1.40 seems high but I think he'll at least double in price given that Mason Greenwood has bust £3, he's at high flying Liverpool with Bayern Munich sniffing. So you could benchmark him with Brewster (2.75) if he sticks around or start pondering that he could be the next Sancho and Nelson if he moves to Germany so I think £3 is probably about right.
Then take Dack, 10 goals and 6 Assists this season (8 + 2 in the League) and you've got FI gold from a Midfield perspective. This one's harder to predict but being English with the Spurs links probably places him higher than Maupay @ 1.49 but not on the level of Grealish at 2.39 so balls on the line I'd say 1.75.
There's a couple of strikers coming with old dog Antenucci and the younger Santander but they're not at big clubs and their price isn't that attractive for me.
Dauda is a young starlet but he's attracting the wrong clubs at this moment in time, Mainz being the best for FI.
Out of the keepers, MOya is best value but there's loads of great value still around in the same price bracket.
Good luck getting on Duncan early folks.
RE: Take PB Data sites with a pinch of salt...
Very good thread here and I'd also add that the Data becomes more valuable as the season goes on, we're only at the end of November remember.
This season's data will soon show the regular performers and who's likely to go close.
Last season's data is still useful if things haven't changed or players move to a club with a similar role (Lo Celso was a PB machine when he played last season and his move from PSG to Betis looked a backward step on paper, however he's now playing a lot more, in the more lucrative EL and Betis are possession kings backed up by the stats - so he's now actually worth more in my eyes)
Finally this summer saw a huge amount of new users who have been buying players based on hype and performance so we're seeing huge rises in players who are highly unlikely to win a PB this season, add to this the new G&A/In Play Dynamics and people are deploying a wide range of trading tactics and might be chasing quicker wins by getting off the tried and tested players, take Banega for example, still performing still winning but his price has stayed relatively static for a while.
No right or wrong answers but for me I'll be taking more and more notice of the data come January and beyond.
RE: so 58 goal keppers up
I can confirm there's no inside information leaked. I ploughed 10k into GK's about 16 days ago, I kept it to myself (as some on here can confirm) as I didn't want to be labelled for PnD or starting unsubstantiated rumours.
The bottom line is that this is a trading platform and we're all placing bets on the future outcome of numerous factors, including product upgrades.
My PF is up a huge amount and I'm not surprised by it, neither am I going to ditch them pre-announcement. Of course I've mitigated some of the risk by selling a few but no more than 5% of the one's who have risen. People I chat to regularly reckon I should sell about 20% which would be sensible however I've always found sensible a little boring :-).
For those of you who might think the boat has sailed it might be worth taking a look at this I tweeted earlier. https://twitter.com/AgatelloFI/status/1065535928134000641
For me the obvious and most predictable big name rises may well have happened, but the true value lies in those relatively unpurchased so far as mentioned many times above.
To this end, if you don't already, it might be worth trying @Noirx4 premium data product, even just to test it out... as he's sending out well researched data that will arm anyone in a big way ready for 7pm today.
If it doesn't go my way, c'est la vie and it was definitely worth a go! :-)