@Ericali I don't see it as a 3 year bet though, and I'm not sure why so many people do. Yes, the bet expires after 3 years, but in 3 years time you can simply sell and re-buy, so I see it more as a 2% fee to pay every 3 years. Even if you do see it as a 3 year bet, it's important to consider what price the player will be in 3 years (when you come to sell), and for this you need to look 6-7 years into the future. I think players prices should be roughly equivalent to their estimated dividend return of their whole career. Who's to say I won't hold for 6-7 years, this term isn't unusual with other types of investment. Yes a 30% drop from a significant matrix change is a risk, as it is with all players, but I can't see a significant matrix change occuring with the market now as developed as it is. I believe a bigger risk is a drop caused by a significant injury, however this has a bigger impact on older players, due to increased % of time it knocks off their playing career. I understand the attractive option of the other Liverpool defenders, but who's to say they aren't currently all underpriced. Just because you see these players as better value does not make TAA overpriced.