@AndyP32 Price predictions have all got a bit messy due to the share split - after all, he'll likely be under £4 at the end of March! But based on current prices, I think £12 is a very harsh estimate. He's still a footballing master who'll return a lot of dividends between now and then. Plus there's then a summer of MB ahead. If any PB/IPD competitions are added for that period, Copa America could well be one of them … So still too much going for him to allow the kind of drop you're suggesting I think. People might bring in the old Ronaldo comparison, but I think they're very different cases on FI with a three-year age gap and all the legal controversy affecting CR7's MB pull.
Posts made by BL__FI
RE: The future for Messi on FI?
RE: Top 20 haemorrhaging £££!
This has been mentioned a few times on the forum in the past but I'm sure a few new traders here won't be aware of it: KDB's dividend stats from last season look better than they actually are because he won most of them in the very early days of PB when there was hardly any competition. Since the player pool increased I think he's barely won anything.
RE: Joao Felix
@chaps1988 He's already the 13th most expensive midfielder on FI and about 1.60 more than any other non-PB-league mid (ignoring de Jong whose move to Barca is already confirmed for summer) and around £2 more than the most expensive Juve mid, Pjanic. Obviously he has youth on his side and comparative value is by no means an exact science, but I'd definitely advise caution about buying in now. Having said that, there's been plenty of players I'd assumed were nearing peak who continued to rocket, so don't just take my word for it as I might be talking you out of a huge profit!
RE: PB MIdfielders
Thiago and Kroos are by far the most proven in terms of consistently hitting very big scores and winning PB. But they're a bit older than the other names so less likely to see much capital appreciation (at least for as long as the youngster obsession on FI continues). Goretzka's got a lot of love from traders since he moved to the #10 role, but to be honest his scores (or certainly his baseline) hasn't been that impressive, it's just he's scored a few goals. In the last game he played deeper again and his score suffered. Havertz also has transfer buzz factored into his price, but he is another one who is reliant on goals if he's going to win PB. To be fair that applies to the vaaaaaast majority of midfielders - the two most notable exceptions being, you guessed it, Kroos and Alcantara. Tolisso has hit some big scores in the past, but he's somewhat unproven because he's been injured so much since PB was introduced.
I'd say it's tough to do a direct versus comparison, but the general range is
Current PB ability: Kroos and Thiago far ahead of the rest
Capital appreciation: Tolisso and Goretzka have the furthest to climb, but only if they perform. I'd expect Thiago and Kroos to continue rising for as long as their teams stay in the CL, but if last season is anything to go by they might drop rapidly when they go out or even look like doing so. Havertz will rise if he is strongly linked to a Prem move and/or hits more big PB scores but will probably drop if he moves to Bayern (as Goretzka did, initially).
Potential PB: impossible to say really. Depends on so many factors - position, manager, fitness, form. It's not perfect but all we can really go on is past data and hunches (e.g. if you were quick to notice that Goretzka had been pushed forward by Kovac and was therefore likely to start scoring goals, you could have made a lot of money).
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