Best posts made by C Arroyo

I'll start the thread with my own suggestions, please feel free to add your own, try to provide a rationale for any players discussed.

1 - Leo Messi - Consistent winner of MB will benefit from the bonus period and is a banker to feature regularly in the top 5 during the promotion months. Contender for Ballon d'Or should generate a run of dividend wins.

2 - Mohammed Salah - Has peaks and dips in regard to MB dividends, however the CL final is mouthwatering, will be the first name on most peoples lips and the favorite to generate a "buzz" - A CL winner makes him a serious contender for the Ballon d'Or and though likely to stay at Liverpool, there is some talk.

3 - Matthijs de Ligt - Currently being discussed as the biggest transfer of the summer. Hot property with seemingly every top club competing for his service.
His young age and ability make him a safe long term investment, now a proven threat at set pieces as well as being a leader and man for the big occasion.

4 - Virgil Van Dijk - Has become somewhat a media spokesperson for Liverpool FC of late, seems to be developing a mature and positive relationship with the media (who were critical at a time he was with Southampton reserves). A good long term MB prospect now Ramos is getting a bit long in the tooth. CL Final as well as a Nations League Semi against England.

5 - Trent Alexander-Arnold - One of the best young players in world football. Increasingly proving himself to be a PB beast. often leaving Kimmich in his dust.
MB scores are improving. CL Final and Euro Nations finals to come, Trent could be the player who puts his name up in lights.

6 - Ross Barkley - Transfer bans and Injuries have had a subtle affect on the players immediate prospects. Could be now or never for Ross. He isn't lacking in confidence and knows he has a big opportunity, firstly in the Europa final against rivals Arsenal (against whom he has a history of big goals) and then with his country in the Nations league.

7 - Antoine Griezmann - Top quality and proven. Will no doubt continue to get media attention right through the summer bonus period. When the new season begins there will be a lot attention on his performances. I think he will increase his goals and PB win ratios wherever he goes. Barca are favorites, but long time admirers Utd refuse to rule themselves out. Long been undervalued, due to Athletico style of play, question is - at what price will his true value settle ?

8 - Gareth Bale - Media Darling, they simply can't get enough of this story. They are the biggest drivers of a potentially huge transfer to Utd. That's a train I don't want to miss. Giggs is another big influence pushing the move. If it happens, he will replace Pogba next season as the biggest winner of MB dividends. If Bale went into hibernation right now, the media would surround his cave with cameras and mics.

9 - Memphis Depay - Worst case scenario is he stays at Leon and continues to be a consistent PB beast in France. However he's hot property after a fantastic season and the big boys are sniffing, Klopp vs Barca again. It's hard to name players who can improve either Liverpool or Barca, but Memphis would make either team better. I think he fits in perfectly at Liverpool, I think Klopp suspects that would be the case. I think he's his top priority signing and I was previously correct in the case of four current Reds (Matip, Van Dijk, Keita and Fabinho).
Will be looking to end English trophy dreams this summer. The big threat.

10 - Nicolas Pepe - With the french runners up admitting they are helpless to keep the player, it's not a case of if but where, he moves this summer. Apparently all of the top Premier league clubs are interested and he can take his pick. Will want to be a starter so I think he will be a big player in the PL next season. I think he chooses Arsenal or Liverpool (depending on EL reasult), but Man Utd will try to tempt with a massive wage offer.

11 - Hakim Ziyech - Admittedly an admirer of Ozil and has an affinity with Arsenal FC, would be a good signing for Arsenal, but it remains to be seen how high a priority he is for Emery. Man Utd are serious rivals for his signature and they have clearly made an effort. That may be worth a great deal in the mind of the player. Would do well at either club and looks suited to PL style of play.

12 - Timo Werner - Has been told to "find a new club", which is all I needed to hear before including him in my holds. "Fine" he's better than the RB academy anyway. Seems to be a straight decision between Bayern and Liverpool, either of which will see him increase his profile and goal/PB ratio. I could also see Real Madrid entering this race. Will be like Fowler and Muller (Gerd) once given finishing duties in a better team.

13 - Kalidou Koulibaly - Years proving himself to be the hardest gladiator in the Italian arena has made him one of the very best CB's in world football. Man Utd are long time suitors, he would be a success at any club and up there with Van Dijk and Laporte in terms of prem league influence. The one player Utd should be busting a gut to sign and I suspect they are doing just that.

14 - Harry Maguire - Utd ? City ? Utd ? City ? The longer the saga continues the more MB he's going to wrack up through the summer. Hopefully he makes his decision after the Euro Nations finals. There's no reason for the player to make hasty decisions. Ultimately, if Pep wants him I think he goes there. The one thing missing for Maguire is trophies, unlike some of his current team mates.

15 - Moussa Dembele - Like Memphis, the worst case scenario is he stays in France and scores a few hundred goals whilst demolishing the occasional pub team. I could see him being a star at Man Utd, he wouldn't be the first former Celtic star to make that step. I think it's part of what Ole sees in his Utd potential, a future fan favorite and a big enthusiastic, hard working smile. Humble too. Exactly the sort of Frenchman Utd could do with.

16 - Tanguy NDombele - Stood out in the CL games against Barca this season. Every top manager in the world would have noticed this. Capable of running any match at any level. Likely destinations are alongside Pep or Zidane but once again we see links with Utd and they are a hard club to turn down.

17 - Nicolo Zaniolo - With Leicester determined to hold on to Maddison, I think Spurs will turn all their attentions to Zaniolo. He ticks all the boxes, he's within the budget, Poch wants him. I see one big attacking signing there and further I think it's a signing that keeps the manager happy...and staying.

18 - David Neres - Got better and better as the games got bigger and bigger. Top clubs noticed and his value has spiked accordingly. I think like Ziyech this could be a straight fight between Arsenal and Man Utd. I think he fits in well as a squad player at Liverpool and I think that merits consideration from the player. PL seems likely destination based on recent talk.

19 - Jean-Kevin Augustin - Had been wondering why the big stall in his Leipzig development the latter part of the season. Now it all becomes clear. Agents been hinting at a pay rise of course. Seemingly at Leicester or Everton, which typically generates a spike, some MB and a good start to the season. Pretty decent player actually.

20 - Adrien Rabiot - Like De Ligt and Bale he is "inevitably" going to pick up MB dividends this summer as the media builds a buzz around his eventual destination. Has all the big clubs to choose from and the appeal of the PL seems to be pulling the player. He's wanted and the media are positive towards him. I thought it would be Barca, but they've invested in some good CM's and Rabiot has made it clear he expects to play.

21 - Kenny Lala - The best player in world football, not currently playing at the top level. No disrespect to cup winners Strasbourg. For those unfamiliar he's like Trent with turbos who scores and creates more, without the support of world class players. Kyle Walker would very quickly be forgotten and why would he not heed the Pep call to join City.

22 - Joao Felix - I haven't seen anywhere near enough of this young player to rate his abilities. I heard he's pretty good from those who claim to watch a lot of Portugese football. What I have read is that he looks to Ronaldo as an inspiration. That skinny Portugese kid made his name at Man Utd. So my bet is that this kid follows in those same footsteps. Still raw but obviously ready for the top level after running big games of late (watched his PB closely).

23 - Donny van de Beek - Reports of late make PSG favorites for his signature. If that move happens and he continues to be used in an advanced mid position in France he'll become a PB banker. Failing that he could very well join a top club in the PL. If the PSG move breaks down, I think Spurs have a good chance.

24 - Nico Schulz - My lowest priced player listed here. I do not expect him to storm the MB table now it's been confirmed he'll remain in Germany. What catches my attention is this...Current best full back for PB in Germany £2.50+
Possibly the next PB star in the Bundesliga for new club Dortmund - 60p+ Bargain with a lot of potential for six month appreciation.

25 - Julian Brandt - Links with Liverpool aren't going away. Klopp has stated openly that he has a decision to make on signing the player. I think it's getting to be a situation of "how many can I fit in". With the likes of Werner, Pepe, Neres, Bale and Depay linked it remains to be seen. Brandt is a different type of player to the others though, most would agree he's better than Shakira.

26 - Sadio Mane - Another contender to be "the man who wins the CL", I don't want to bet against him anyway. Really stepped up this season after a pre season pep talk from Jurgen. He believes he's the best player at the club. He'll be determined to prove that to the world in Madrid. I make Senegal faves this summer in the African internationals and that usually adds a little more MB, transfer talk rumbles on like Salah, but I think both will stay, despite lures from Spain (unlike Pogba and Hazard, left off the list for this reason).

27 - Jadon Sancho - I suspect Man Utd are working hard to make the kid an offer he can't refuse. If that offer materializes it will be hard for the player not to return home. He will become an instant hero, half the kids in the country will be wearing shirts with his name on the back and his international future with England will be secure. Like Bale he could be the big reaper of UTD dividends (the things we call media dividends).

28 - Raheem Sterling - As time has progressed we have consistently seen a steady rise in the media attention paid to Sterling, that his performances merit. Few have proved to be as consistent in terms of money invested, yield and returns. He remains a "safe bet". Never likely to win more MB than the next Pogba, but consistently likely to win a few, particularly when England gather.

29 - Will Kane be fit or not ??? I don't know. However I'm quite sure the media will write about it. It certainly isn't all over for Harry Kane. The two biggest games of the season (maybe 3) are still to come right, for the Spurs and England Captain. Still has the opportunity to finish the season on a massive high and will be determined to do so as well as inspiring his teams and maintaining his positive relationship with the media and nation.

30 - Marcus Rashford - I have a feeling that after such a frustrating season for Utd he's going to be reinvigorated as he gets into training with England. Whilst the other England forwards have been playing for success right up until the final games, they could be forgiven for feeling a little drained. I don't think that will be the case for Rashford. I see him going into England vs Holland with real hunger and desire to prove himself in the elite company he'll have on the pitch.
Biggest threat to the Dutch and likely to bring in bonus period MB.

There's my top 30.
Feel free to provide critical counter arguments against them.
Add in any supporting statements as to why these are good summer investments.
Throw in any other suggestions you may have that I've missed.

@MickTurbo

Here's where your logic is flawed :

Marcus Rashford : Plays crap, doesn't score, goes off injured.
Wins MB dividend

Today outlines exactly the solution with FI.

The pond was stagnant, for there were a few fat and lazy whales bloating the ecosystem.
FI as a product had been seized and manipulated by the wealthy few, those fortunate enough to have been exposed early.
For as long as we remained reliant on MB, they could always inflate prices and dominate ownership, putting the product in bondage.

I admire AC and the FI team for what actions have been taken.
The product could never be sustainable in the long term rewarding those with the biggest pots, in such a simplistic way.
MB and those early investors have frankly served their purpose. Be gone now.
For too long has FI pandered to your MB feasting.

We're seeing an inevitable hit, a sell-off....this is a process we MUST go through at some point. Short term pain assures long term gain.
As the bankers take their profits and run back to familiar pastures, new football enthusiasts will engage this platform, only in future we will be better placed to retain them, with value as reasonably expected (and advertised) being "based on performances on the pitch".

I'm actually cheering the general losses...really I am....because I'm convinced I know who's selling and I'm massively reassured by that.
It's getting a little hard for them to get a reasonable return for the little work they expect to put in.

In the past those with greatest access to financial resources have returned the largest profits, it was far from rocket science, the more humble majority could only stack up on what we could afford to put together, with some even remortgaging and taking huge risk so as not to miss the boat...quite horrible.
Tbh it was offensive, as it lacked sincerity based on the ads FI was pitching.

Now things are improving, more eligible match days, an improvement in points allocation, greater value in single match days, all to the benefit of PB.
This is the route to a sustainable and profitable future, for both FI and for those investors/scouts who spend their time watching...dare I say it Herenveen reserves.

Had Icelandic hedge fund gamblers taken a fair return for supporting early economic growth, as opposed to staying put and crashing the party for everyone, they might have avoided a stint in jail.
The return to date for those has been fair !

I for one would be content to see my port drop to my initial level of investment.
FI is now a branded product with a large enough consumer base and national levels of awareness.
Starting afresh with this huge and diverse consumer base and a more distributed investment pot......wouldn't even require MB at all.
We would see a return to growth and at a much faster rate, Customer retention would improve. Just as we see young players and managers emerging, we would see new scouts and investors emerging here - sustainable.

It is not sustainable to keep bumping MB and inducing share splits to paper over those broken foundations.
Finally we can say to the Pogbalytes, when faced with the threat of selling off :
"Go on then - leave....thanks for your investment...we feel your returns to date are sufficiently adequate for your contribution and support.

Those who generate dividends from PB have little to fear I suggest, lots of green ahead.
I've been telling the MB holders to sell for around 6 months now.
Most 5 year olds with an interest in football could pick the best MB investments.
I've been laughed at here for saying I'd rather bang the PB drum and lose money...as opposed to researching who's due a haircut or who's been out shopping.
Truth is the return on the Wolves side I've enjoyed watching of late felt justified and earned, doing something I have a passion for.....That's why most will always walk through our turnstile. Love for the game.
One should not require pom poms, we can of course retain a little MB for those so inclined.

Sold : Wout Weghorst +50%
Sold : Jerome Rousillon + 15%
Sold : Admir Mehmedi +20 %
Sold - Josip Brekalo + 20%

All sold pre-game.
Each player listed also returned IPD's during the past 30 days.

I did keep hold of one player tonight.
Star player Joshua Guilavogui.

I've bleated frequently about media groupies vs football enthusiasts.

Your perspective is exactly why a share split was required. FI was stagnating due to all value being in only a small handful of media dividend winners, bloating their price.

The combined cost of the top 5 placed media darlings today was around £20 a share.
The 5 players I listed above cost me around £3 a share and resulted in a far larger ROI.
It actually takes a little effort, research and footballing knowledge, those are factors that FI must reward in order to thrive and remain sustainable.

We can each choose what to do with our free time this coming Thursday.
Some of us will be hanging on to media articles.
Others including myself will be cheering on the young viking who's been hacking his way through every wall of resistance he's come up against in Spain this season.
Why would anyone 'cept for the idle, want to read a paper when there is football being played.
Did you hear Neymar just got a haircut ?
No ! I was watching a young winger make a name for himself in Germany.
He's justified his rise in value (as well as his inclusion in the starting 11) with his recent performances There is definitely life in the Croats post Modric.

I hope everyone is well and you've all had good summer breaks.

My focus this season will be on single match days, as well as some double match days where only a small number of games provides value.

I will create threads (typically for Friday/Monday) fixtures, where tipsters can discuss potential front runners in the race for dividends.

Let's get started........

---

Villa v Everton
FC Koln v Dortmund
Grenada V Sevilla
Levante V Villareal

Villa v Everton looks like it has score draw written all over it for me, with neither team wanting to lose, once the pressure cranks up in the final 30 mins.
I'm hoping the two attacking fullbacks that face off cancel one another out, or at least that Villa's tactics on the night are sound.

Despite a good performance on their Bundesliga return, Koln are up against it.
Dortmund are on fire, there's talk in Germany of a power shift and they have invested well and have one of the best squads in Europe. There's a problem with having such a complete squad - who will be selected to start ? Sancho probably will but it's a pricey option when there's lots of midfield competition.

Sevilla surprised me in their first game...a lot,, Not so much a 5p dividend return on a player costing 57p (as well as a further rise of 30p). What surprised me was the team selection and performance, leaving me with a headache. I'm hoping both Banega and El Haddadi return to the team and dominate. Both were key players in pre season, scoring and creating. For me Reguilon was a pre-season steal at 57p, currently trading at 88p, it's half the price of Digne and still looks value when compared to top price fullbacks at £3+

I'm not sure how Grenada pulled off a 4-4 draw away in their last game, but I am sure Villareal will be looking to tighten up at the back for this one with Levante.
I'm expecting a bore draw and don't fancy either of these two sides this season.

@gball1975

I think it's very high risk.
Most of these players are not yet proven at the highest level.
It baffles me that the likes of Vinicius and CHO are valued higher than Griezmann, Kane etc.
I just think the most promising youngsters are currently at massively inflated prices.
So there's the risk - possible crash.

Now you've felt that sting with Vinicius, you know the potential risk, I could be wrong and they could all continue to rise, but they could also drop.

I like a safer bet.
Let's take Eric Dier, currently at 73p. Assuming the share split is /4, then he's 18p.
18p.....I mean how much further can he drop from there, is there any real risk ?
Let's compare him to the kid at Newcastle. Being realistic, which of the two is more likely to play in the nations cup finals this summer ? Which is likely to be playing CL games next season ? Which is likely to be playing in a team that wins more than they lose and typically dominates possession ?

Right now with the share split looming and uncertainty over the dividend structure I'm playing it safe. Not looking at how much potential there is for growth, rather how much "negative potential" is there. Obviously there's a likely chance that older players in their 30s will drop gradually with age, but if I'm right those with the biggest potential for losses are ironically the youngest players, who've seen huge price rises of late.
The only one I'm holding there is Gnabry, but he's significantly older than the others. He's proven at BL level and is starting games in CL and for Germany.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do, but if you see a player slightly older who looks "safe" I'd urge getting some. I think a lot of these 20-50p (post split) players may see a quick return to £1 or more.
I have a horrible feeling that's going to be funded by experienced investors dumping large quantities of Vinicius, Sancho, Rashford etc.
They'll be first to dump and it'll happen quickly over the course of a few hours.
They regularly do this with new IPO's added to the index, they did it during deposit bonuses and I believe their fingers are hovering over the IS button (the first 6 on your list).
Making massive profit and essentially killing the index for most - typically less experienced FI traders.

Every player has a real value and there's no way Leao should be higher than say Griezmann, no way CHO should be higher than Sterling.
I'm very concerned...I don't want every user who's joined recently staring at a portfolio in the red, but I'm sure the sharks are blowing up prices, waiting for others to buy in later, then dumping.

My advice is to ignore what everyone else is doing, ignore what's trending. Look only at prices and buy who you think is good value. Then hold, hold, hold.
If worse comes to worse, and they all go red before you can act. Hold them, get more funds in if you want to buy, eventually the cycle will repeat itself - they'll all rise again in future and turn green.

Having thought a great deal about the Q+A between The FIG and EJ I'm left with only one valid conclusion.

Firstly :
EJ makes a great point about turnover and sustainability - FI has to always remember that any new investors are only likely to remain , if they are able to initially afford a diverse portfolio giving interest in "big games".

The valid solution offered being share splits as needed to enable the above. Initial affordability of a portfolio that sustains interest level and engagement (trade....FI profit).

Secondly.
Though EJ has politely suggested a rise in dividends to follow each required share split, not enough has been made of this in his excellent appraisal.
On reflection what I now perceive is a "Silent Stand Off at 10 Paces" - Between FI and it's community of investors.

FI has suggested a dividend increase with G&A, however this is neither an actual or productive increase imho. These are stipulated dividends that encourage short term trading and increase profit.
They should be considered separately from conventional dividends.
They're viability should be measured by FI, only based on "increase" in trade due to short term flips. Otherwise they are dipping into one productive pool of profit, to sustain another that has no long term viability (assuming prices remain in the £'s per share for players.
As FI prices correct and balance these flips at commission costs become less and less viable - Surely we all begin to lose.

Further investors old and new need to retain an interest, an incentive to trade and diverse portfolios beyond 30 days. After this point they still need to see "winnings" that are in line with their cost of investment.
The period of stagnation (with dividends essentially decreasing with each competitive IPO and rising player price) has been more damaging than it should be, than it would have been if dividend payments were in some way tangible, rising with player prices (which is what share split, dividend rise, share split, dividend rise method ensures).

One is compelled to increasingly ask an important question.

Where is the revenue being spent ?

I sincerely agree with EJ.
This could and should be a win, win scenario.

I don't agree we're limited to 10 share splits over a decade.
I believe this is FOOTBALL, a "REVOLUTION" and I would suggest a "LEGACY" - 100 years of share splits, redundant bookies and FI shifts being household talk.

The "Stand Off" I mentioned will, make no mistake, continue...whilst FI maintains "Any dividend amounts will be reduced accordingly", suggesting proportionality.

That truly would be a sad, wasteful and epic fail on their parts, ours too for failing to make the case strongly enough.

So I'm asking for us to reach a consensus that we would like to see this system in place.

Share splits as needed to maintain (for new investors) an initial portfolio that is diverse and produces.
Along with proportional dividend rises that ensures long term investment and long term growth...until we truly become the biggest and best, the world over.

The economy is full of short term flips.
This product, football index - We should all throw our confidence right behind it.

FI should be able to afford this dividend cost.
IF membership grows - trade grows, as should profit.

If player prices rocket upwards and dividends do not, FI spins it's wheels and sinks.

My favorite moments this season have been when the stadium announcer at the Atleti Azzurri calls out...

Duvan ?

and the crowd roar in response...

ZAPATA

It's been a trademark in an excellent turnaround this season.
Now that clown Andreas Cornelius is gone.
Now where do I remember him from ?!?!

The hardest defenders in the world (with the exception of the mad Uraguayan) usually play in Italy. Koulibaly has been the best in recent seasons.

I was really looking forward to seeing Duvan go toe to toe with Kouli and it didn't disappoint. An epic game, and an epic individual battle - which Zapata won hands down.
Biggest game of the season, biggest individual battle and he rose to it. After 25-30 mins I'm looking at his PB and wondering how on earth he's at -23 points. It wasn't for a lack of effort. He's not used to being beaten for pace and strength, but Kouli is the best, alongside VVD. He put up one hell of a fight though, to little avail as Napoli took an early lead (May as well try and "catch the pigeon" when Dries Mertens decides he's in the mood to put on a show, but he tires after an hour).

So there we are, away to Napoli, goal down, Mertens on fire and Kouli shutting up shop.
A lot of strikers heads would drop in this situation, but Duvan has heart, that's what showed. What can you expect from your man up top when Kouli is tracking his every step ?

Atalanta were superb to a man (including young Pasalic who was out of his depth). Castagne and Hateboer went right at 'em. Both were playing out of their skins, it's a weapon most can't cope with - it's the formation I prefer. But Zapata was the key. He put down the beast at the gate and smashed the door.
He did so first time with muscle, holding the ball on the edge of the six yard box with his back to goal. Holding off the beast, yet showing expert ball control. Laid it on a plate and props to young Pasalic (who may have a future at Chelsea) for not giving the keeper any chance with a good finish.
Then he did it with pace (and intelligence), recognizing an opportunity as Hateboer charged at the back line, anticipating first and getting a yard on Kouli. Enough to get the winner after taking a beating for the best part of an hour.
A combination that max'd my G&A profit and was my moment of the season so far (a little bias excitement and that awesome feeling of vindication when your boys come good).
Despite no clean sheet I'm sticking with this kid Gollina in goal too.
This team really deserves a crack at the CL now, I've really enjoyed watching them (Getafe it aint). This comeback victory away to Napoli shows what they have to offer.

Looking forward to Monday and Fiorentina.
Another gladiator, youngster Nikola Milenkovic, one of the best out there ?
Personally I think the best are playing in Germany, three of them at least anyway.
Should be another battle though, Atalanta have momentum and it'll be interesting to see how Fiorentina cope with the attacking wave that supplies Duvan.

I'm known for a tangent, but it shouldn't be forgotten that I haven't even mentioned a certain Papu Gomez either.
How do he play for Atalanta again ?
Looks like Maradona to me every game and I've seen a fair few now. The best player not playing in CL ?
For me he's second only to Messi this season.

Ilicic, Freuler, De Roon - All of the defenders score goals !
What happens if Barrow turns out to be good ?

For now I'll settle with what's been a regular ker-ching for me this season.

Duvan ?

ZAPATA

"What I want to see is performance as a whole being pushed forward because it is this, not media, that has really captured imaginations and pushed FI to where it is today."

Agreed

"We are also hitting a point where yields really are pitiful. If FI is going to survive and mature the focus does need to come more back towards dividends rather than pure hype. If it doesn’t, FI will eat itself."

Well put - Agreed

"But that will take more than a 6–12% increase."

Equally pitiful I say.
It needs 250% to cover the price rises of the last 12 months alone.
That is without consideration of the addition of 1000+ players.
Assuming FI wants to maintain a 19.3% yield.

@ The FIG - It should be noted that IPD's are retarding capital appreciation - I'm convinced by the way the market is behaving that too large a number, are selling anything over 30 days old, as soon as they are able to do so without loss.
It has a very detrimental affect on any investors with a preference for holding beyond 30 days.

My own preference is :

IPD's - Bin them.

MB - Split 5 ways. Round every player off to the nearest 5p - Make MB a 1p a day dividend post split on match days.

PB - This is where I want to see substantial increases. The winners are more difficult to predict, it is in large part based on form, there's built in volatility that promotes trade.

I want a tiered system post split.

GK - 1p
Def - 1st - 3p, 2nd,3rd,4th - 1p each
Mid - 1st - 3p, 2nd, 3rd - 1p each
Fwd - 1st - 3p, 2nd, 3rd - 1p each

In order to retain that 19.3% yield there simply has to be an increase that is proportional to rises in player prices.
Essentially a share split, but with no reduction in dividends.

I would be happy with no less than this. I'm guessing it's been a good year for FI, they haven't gone bust, they're not accumulating debt to my knowledge.
The point is 19.3% was an affordable payout 12 months ago.
Why should it not be so for the coming 12 months.
Without a rise to match player prices the projection falls below 5% this year. I quote - "pitiful".
However whilst the resulting stagnation, when players rise to meet the value of their likely individual dividend yield, is worrying.
IPD's are also retarding any growth as people flip and bring down price gains in favor of new IPD's.
MB should be FI's greates concern. The longer the media sticks with Pogba, the more people who hold him, the closer FI gets to going bust.
It is quickly becoming the Paul Pogba Index and they really should have a lot more to discuss on talksport, as with other future platforms. PB and player performance/form gives us that critical point of sustainable interest.

I don't think my dividend restructure proposal is complicated, I do think it brings merit based value to futures and gives FI a volatile market with sustainable trade.

I listen from 6am - 8pm, so I'm familiar with hosts on talksport, as well as with guests.

It's pointless getting frustrated with Bob Mills - he's there to antagonize. I had my initial concerns, but Jim White has talked about FI with an eagerness and an open mind. Good.

However....I don't care if it costs double, triple, or ten fold.
Getting Alan Brazil to show an interest is going to be far more productive. Brazil is financially astute and maintains an enthusiasm towards trading and investments.
Henk Potts of Barclays contributes to his show, with "market updates".

Bob Mills or Henk Potts ?

Do we want to be taken seriously ?

How much extra cost is that worth ?

Also....this needs to be approached with care...We need to get Simon Jordan on side. He is an intelligent, outspoken and influential speaker on talksport...as is Brazil.

Whilst we're on this, could someone please ask Mike, to put some effort into speaking without constant use of the words um, umm and ummm prior to every sentence.
Regardless of the presentation, there's a more serious issue with that. It casts doubt as opposed to fostering trust.
Every one of us can learn and improve, perhaps I could learn to be more subtle. Not today.

@MickTurbo

TAA gives us a good example to work with.
He's now the most expensive defender on the market, by some margin.

As a player I rate him.
However as an investment ?

Short term IPD's - would need to generate 8p over 30 days (likely to soon be 9p, rising to my maximum figure of £5/10p).....Messi territiory.
"Overpriced" as a "Flip".

As a "Hold", he needs to return an average of around 25p a season in combined MB and PB...for the duration of his career, simply to break even....assuming his value at the end of his career drops to zero.
It's probably fair to suggest he will maintain his high price for a decade, before it begins to fall. So that would offer a 100% return....or perhaps 10% per year (approx figures).
The bet is essentially + / - 25p per season in combined PB/MB.

Age is a significant factor.....Neymar ? Messi ? Ronaldo ?
In the case of CR7.....he needs to return around £1.50 a season in combined MB/PB, to break even. As those returns would only offset his falling price during that period.
The same could be said for Messi.
Sold earlier today....this could be the last time I consider investing in either player.

For me Neymar and Pogba have reached a peak price, in terms of any value they offer, but it is extremely high risk. The potential for losses is greater than the potential for significant gains...imho.
I think we've known these things for around 12 months.
Hence why the bulk of investment has gone towards U23 players of late.

We already see TAA and Mbappe hitting these peak prices £5.00-7.50 in terms of value - their speculative PB/MB yields.
Not all of these players can produce high yields, only a minority will do so, with those mentioned being the "favorites".
There will certainly be more losers than winners...in terms of dividend returns.

*Quick Math".
Take all dividends paid out over a season / combined price of all futures.
More losers than winners.
Buying every defender will produce a loss.
Buying most defenders will produce a loss.
Buying several defenders will likely produce a loss.
Buying the right one or two...might just generate a profit.
Prices are bloated, there is more money to be lost, than to be made through speculating on who will be the next Pogba or Kimmich.

The only way to make money here currently, is from the stupidity of others.
Those who today bought my CR7 futures for £3.24.....Madness I say.
You'll not get £4 off me for Trent, not unless Liverpool are playing at home against Sheffield United on a Monday evening and there's a buzz.

It isn't real value though. It's artificial. Not sustainable.
Neither is raising the dividends to keep up with demand and rising prices in a saturated market.....it is inviting a crash when reality settles in, which it is evidently doing.
People are starting to get a little pissed off staring at their Vinicius Jr shares and thinking why I am I not getting my monthly 20p in dividends.
That's a pretty decent return for a "team", individual players can't all generate 20p a month in dividends.

Messi has proven his influence in the Barca team. It would be fair to say he's worth about £4....the rest of the squad maybe a quid between the lot of 'em, rarely do any of them steal his thunder on match days.
What we've done here is speculate on every player in every squad, bloating the prices of all but the winning few.
Good for FI.....Now they either up the dividends significantly or face the pending crash.

We'll see what they do at the end of the month with dividends.
Has to be better than these paper over cracks deposit bonuses.
The terminology they've used sounds positive. Like they've woken up to reality.

Whatever percentage the dividends rise....that's how much scope there will be for individual share prices to rise.
However my port is not going to exceed 50 players (not without tiered PB).
Added to which I will not purchase in excess of 300 shares as is cost effective in terms of selling, price movement and commission.
In essence FI themselves is now putting a limit on the amount that can be invested.
That can only increase if dividends are raised through tiered PB and the pool of "winners" becoming more diverse.
Opening up the MB might benefit Victor, but at a cost to Pogba.

I was pleased to see "media madness" as well as the inclusion of Euro's, but more winners produced through tiered PB is still the way forward for FI.
Once all the 'diots run out of money and patience...which they are increasingly doing.
I think TAA and Cancelo are safe places to put money. Proven, real world and opta world, long contracts at top clubs and top managers who rate them to boot.
I'm not sure how much Scottish football Emery watches, as I understand to quote a spud "it's not in the job description".
I don't want £2 players who've not started a single top flight game.

Gael Kakuta (Amiens) - 30p.....Now that makes sense.
I think after Jorginho last season the Chelsea fans at least have probably learned a lesson they will remember.
Let's hope this Gooner doesn't have the same experience with Pepe.....
He's my "pick".
Buying him, along with Willock, Nelson, Saka, Martinelli, Smith Rowe would be crazy, they can't all play let alone win.
Konstantinos Mavropanos....17th choice CB at Arsenal (reserves)
More expensive than Leonardo Bonucci !!

I've arrived at the following logical conclusion :

The betting companies sat at a round table and discussed the new competition...

Then some clever git said...
"I hear they're looking for developers. Let's send in a few of ours to cause chaos, undermine confidence and destroy the product"

---

I haven't received the bonus.
I don't care if I receive the bonus.
At no point did I expect this complex bonus to do anything other than generate more of these threads.

Really...WTF ?

Honestly if I have staff that still need a significant amount of further training...I tend to give them simple tasks in the short term.
Please stop designating critical jobs to numpties. Keep it simple. Don't try to go from baby steps to cruyff turns overnight. You appear to be tripping over yourselves.
Everyone was happy with a simple product, simple win mechanisms and uncomplicated bonuses.

Who on the FI table is complicating things ?
Why ?
Honestly....Do they have prior associations with rivals !

This sort of incompetence is not logical.
If it was intended I could understand it.
One doesn't need Gerald Celente to see the obvious.
What happened to Nasdaq, they're proven.
Right now dev team clearly needs more resources than the marketing team who've had a significant budget increase.
Legal should come first.
Dev Team second.
Marketing is a "bonus".
We used to give it for free. The fact is that is less and less justified. These technical "hitches" make it very difficult to ethically market the product.
We were a universally happy family not so long ago.
We can do without marketing and growth.
What we cant do without is a reliable website, accounts and transactions.
Any advertising exec worth their salt will concur, the reputation of the brand is of utmost importance in any long term venture.

As an investor I would prefer reliability to either a bonus or increased marketing.
The marketing team actually seem to be doing an amazing job, I can see some sense in increasing the budget in that area, however the critical thinkers perspective, is to always reinforce any weak foundations.
Unreliable developers and failing automation, along with poor administrators neglecting to create more efficient communication channels, are pissing off more than one individual.
As such my own individual feelings aren't relevant.
What is relevant is the obvious discontent, confusion, undermining of confidence and it's affects on brand reputation, trust and future marketing.

If it were my marketing team.
I'd demand the increases in budgets go elsewhere...for now.

*Deadline for submitting/editing tips - 2pm

Top Tipsters :

1 - Westy - 31.33 pts
2 - Ross12 - 14.00 pts
3 - Indexical - 12.98 pts
4 - Chickenman - 12.33 pts
5 - Ringers - 10.67 pts
6 - Tikka-Mo-Salah - 9.65 pts
7 - Ynot_b - 9.64 pts
8 - Thatguy - 8.22 pts
9 - Andy M - 8.17 pts
10 - Vespasian32 - 6.32 pts
11 - C Arroyo - 5.33 pts
12 - Hammond_FI - 4.00 pts
13 - Wb - 2.65 pts
14 - Moukoko - 2.00 pts
15 - Dan-w - 1.92 pts
16 - AbuOG - 1.83 pts
17 - AshLewis - 1.65 pts
18 - Advinculas Index - 1.50 pts
19 - Nally - 1.25 pts
20 - benmorley24 - 1.00 pts

*Notification

This points scoring system will be discontinued at the end of the current season (Following CL final).
A new points scoring system will be in place as we commence the new season 2019/2020.

Tipsters will be allowed one daily tip on match days.
Tip "must" be submitted as follows :

Player Name.
Player Club.
Player Price (at time of tip/edit)
Player ranking (as above - ranking is player position on the index).

Points system :
All dividends won on the day will be included. PB, MB and IPD.
Singles and Trebles included, essentially points = pence (in daily dividend returns).
However.....The number of pence/points earned will be multiplied by the players ranking - this will provide the daily points total for each player/tip.

Example 1 :

Leo Messi - Wins 2p MB + 3p PB, + 3p IPD. (Total 8p)
Leo Messi - Index ranking at time of tip - 4th
8p x 4 = 32 pts

Example 2 :

M'Baye Niang - Wins 2p IPD (Total 2p)
M'Baye Niang - Index ranking at time of tip - 550th
2 x 550 = 1100 pts

Please offer feedback, suggestions, criticisms and solutions.
This can be discussed for the duration of the season and during the summer break. Hopefully we can reach a consensus on this ready for 19/20 season opening.

@NewUser142017

I think you have good grounds to feel aggrieved, further I think you should be compensated.

I think you should be paid double on Alena.
I think this should be the case for all investors holding this player.

There is a significant impact on the appreciation spike of the player in question when this happens.
These mistakes cost people money and they should be compensated.

I suspect Mesut Ozil is heading up the team of developers, because they certainly aren't justifying their salaries.

You hold a player for months waiting for one big game, one big spike, then that investment is essentially down the drain through no fault of the investor.

Alena has risen by around 20%, typical of a young PB winning prospect at that sort of price, however if he isn't listed as the star player for the following 24 hours, I'm suggesting that figure will fall more than it usually would.

I'd guesstimate the loss to be around 5-10%, which is actually pretty significant, particularly for those with large holdings in fewer players.

@Allams-Out said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

May I ask what your strategy is for over the summer?

Close my eyes and ride it out lol

I'm not sure I can take another whole portfolio transition in quick succession.

Honestly it's hard to say, prior to the 15th.
Obviously I'm not pulling funds and waiting when there's footy being played.

I'll consider the announcement, if the likely profits exceed the 20% approx cost to completely flip the port for summer I'll probably jump on media for a while.
It does bore me a tad though, sort of looking forward to three months break and making up for lost time whilst the days are long and the skirts are short.
That seems to be a sensible long term trading strategy taking into account health, well being and sanity.
Frankly I've been amazed by the reactions to "Can't do Friday night, Strasbourg are playing at home to Dijon", I feel like I've neglected things for a while and I have some making up to do.

@Dan-The-Man said in Newbie asking what your strategy is? Short-term trades or long-term holds?:

Your target is 20% in 10 days?
Wowza. That's a story I'd like to hear :)
Can you elaborate on your strategy?

The target is dictated by past performance (the previous two weekends), it will be reduced with eventual commission/ownership costs by approx 5%.
It was also I think a particularly good period with lots of investment going in where I'm holding.

However I don't think I'll meet the target this next two weekends. There's money being pumped into Euro winners and more still being withdrawn and held in anticipation of the 15th announcement from FI.
So I'll take 10%.

Strategy is pretty simple.
Data based selections, with a value derived from share price vs clean sheets or goals/assists.

Right now the best value on the index is Andy Delort.
18 goals/assists - cost 34p
He's ineligible to play in the next game vs parent club Toulouse, but he's a steal if you can ride out that game.
This player alone is likely to present a 20% return in appreciation over 10 days, he'll jump back up to 40p after the Toulouse game is out of the way.
I've topped up a little to reduce the overall price I paid.

I've bitten the bullet after FI moved the goalposts, but we simply don't see this sort of value in 2p MB for £10 futures.
There's clearly been a recent dipping at the top end. I said it would happen - No player here is really worth more than £7.50 Certainly not those the wrong side of 25 yo.

A good ten days for a player like Andy Delort will see a 10/20% dividend return as well as a further 10/20% in appreciation.
A great example being Benito Raman this past couple of weeks at Fortuna Dusseldorf. Goals/Assists/PB and from a player still costing only 44p. (Sold after a 20% return)

*All post split

Player Name : Mbappe
30 day IPD projection : 10p
12 month MB projection : 15p
12 month PB projection : 25p

Player Name : Neymar
30 day IPD projection : 12p
12 month MB projection : 55p
12 month PB projection : 40p

Player Name : Leo Messi
30 day IPD projection : 10p
12 month MB projection : 75p
12 month PB projection : 40p

Player Name : Harry Kane
30 day IPD projection : 8p
12 month MB projection : 40p
12 month PB projection : 5p

Player Name : Mohamed Salah
30 day IPD projection : 8p
12 month MB projection : 25p
12 month PB projection : 20p

Player Name : Kevin De Bruyne
30 day IPD projection : 4p
12 month MB projection : 15p
12 month PB projection : 10p

Player Name : Eden Hazard
30 day IPD projection : 8p
12 month MB projection : 40p
12 month PB projection : 25p

Player Name : Antoine Griezmann
30 day IPD projection : 4p
12 month MB projection : 15p
12 month PB projection : 15p

Player Name : Ousmane Dembele
30 day IPD projection : 5p
12 month MB projection : 10p
12 month PB projection : 10p

Player Name : Raheem Sterling
30 day IPD projection : 8p
12 month MB projection : 30p
12 month PB projection : 10p

Not sustainable !

Too simple a win mechanic, too easy to make approximate predictions, prices will stagnate around their IPD based values (for those who don't win MB/PB).

Keepers are the best example.
Any goalkeeper averaging three clean sheets in a 30 day period...is going to return 3p in IPD's.
Logic tells me that these individuals will stagnate when the commission cost also reaches 3p - £1.50 per future (post split).
I shouldn't complain. I hold all the top keepers and they've been my biggest risers (in general terms since the announcement.

Hm....I'm complaining though.
Any win mechanic that brings stagnation forward more quickly is turd.

Average 2 clean sheets a month - stagnate at £1
Average 3 clean sheets a month - stagnate at £1.50
Average 4 clean sheets a month - stagnate at £2

The same principle is true for goals and assists.
Relatively easy to make approximate predictions = Stagnation point being reached sooner.

I prefer individual PB, it's based more on the individuals current form and performances, more so than the team consistency. So it's more volatile, more difficult to predict and the capital appreciation is sustainable for a longer period - there will always be speculation with PB.

WTF is IPD ???
I speculate Oblak will keep 4 clean sheets next month, one more than his usual 3 based on a good run of fixtures.

That excites me as much as reading daily news articles about the same dudes over and over.
I was hoping for far better when I joined.
I maintain PB is better for all long term, particularly those with a little interest in football matches.

@Finlay77

Today my daughter came home with straight A's on her school report - We celebrated with a nice Italian.

No amount of money or profit even comes close I promise.
She'll reward you a thousand times over and she'll never fail to be a source of pride and a reason to smile.

Props to you for having your priorities in the right order.