@FootballArgos said in Football Index has lost it's enjoyment:
@Maradonaman if the fun stops, stop. Would advise selling up slowly though and obviously, would be useful to air your suggestions for improvement in case FI happen to read this thread.
The saying "If the fun stops... stop", arguably highlights a major flaw in the platform.
You can't really stop, even if you want to, when the only way out is to take gigantic losses.
Introduction
So far this season, Trent Alexander Arnold has picked up 47p in PB, which on the surface sounds brilliant but his price point of over £10 is frankly ridiculous and it means that if he gets the same next season, he's going to return just £45 worth of PB for every £1,000 spent on him.
The £10k+ investment needed to buy 1,000 shares in Trent, would return just £450 worth of dividends... Could be worse... but by contrast... Gaston Ramirez from Sampdoria, has picked up 40p worth of PB so far this season, having played just 27 games. If he were to repeat that next season, that same £1,000 investment in him would return just short of £870 worth of PB, almost double what the £10k+ investment in Trent would return. A £500 bet on Gaston Ramirez, would return almost the same amount of PB, as a £10K+ bet on Trent.
Can Ramirez return the same next season? I'll let you figure that one out... but the point is... we've had just 1 season under the new PB matrix and the fellas on the list below have all won PB multiple times, which suggests that they have it in them to win it again.
So, here's the top 40 PB players who earned 17p per share this season... ordered by how much they would return if you bought them today... and they reproduced their winnings next year. (Check out my boy Cuadrado...)
Important Note
In an ideal world, I would have based this list on 'Players Who Won PB At Least Twice', to rule out any 1 time flukes. I can't find a list of such players, so I limited the selection to 'Players Who Picked Up At Least 17p Worth Of PB', as it ensures every player on the list won PB on at least 2 occasions this season.
Sadly this leaves out guys like Henderson and Fabinho who both should be on the list, given that Henderson won PB on 3 occasions even picking up Star Man. If Henderson replicated his 8p worth of PB next season, he would be 33rd on the list and Fabinho would be much higher at 19th, well above "PB players" like Kroos and Kostic, which is especially impressive given that the Brazilian spent half the season on the injury list.
The 16p cut off, also rules out Bruno, given that he's on 16p worth of PB since joining Man Utd. With only 12 games at Man Utd, it's hard to do a full Bruno comparison... but assuming he picked up 4x more PB next season he'd average a similar amount to KDB. Let's be right... you're buying Bruno for MB more than PB.
Seria A teams have more fixtures remaining than other clubs, especially those who are still in European competitions.
Fixtures Remaining
Of the teams that are still in Europe, Juventus, Napoli and Roma have 12 league games, whilst Inter and Atalanta have 13 league games.
This means Inter has 15 PB fixtures scheduled, plus potentially another 3-5 games if they make it to the final of the Europa, which will be determined by how many legs the Quarters and Semi's are played over. (Usually it's 2 legs but there's talk of them just being 1 leg each).
To put that into perspective, Inter have 15-20 PB games, where as teams in Ligue 1 don't have any games left.
I saw your other post and that you referenced this one in response to @Coriolanus ... so I went back to look. You were certainly on the right track but read my response... then look at the graph for Trent...
I called it bang on, explaining that when the fixtures were announced we'd see cycle spikes in each league as football returned, that players would rocket as fomo kicked in when fixtures were announced and that FI would come up with new dividends for us to win, to excite the market.
But the reason I've bumped this thread, is not to show you that I was right.... It's to show you that I aren't some overly negative guy who 'does down' the index for the sake of it or panics in a crisis. My response when football collapsed was measured, I didn't panic, I gave very specific time guides for when and how things would bounce back, even name checking Trent as the type of players who would rise. I was positively up beat about the Index, pointing out that FI had a major opportunity to shine.
Sadly, FI made some incredibly shady decisions and they crashed the market. That's not me accusing them... that's an absolute fact that they have recently acknowledged and apologised for. My tune changed from up beat to frustrated the day FI announced the bid system and that's because I knew, without a shadow of a doubt, that it was going to crash the market costing many of us absolute fortunes with nothing that we could do about it.
For all the criticism I get on here, I think most of you would or indeed have acknowledged my ability to make detailed predictions that come to fruition. Deep analysis is a skill I've honed over decades and I've achieved big things in my life because of that. The truth is, when times are good and I say they're good, people like what I have to say but, when times are about to be bad and I explain why... people accuse me of having an agenda... of making "checkered" posts.
All that you get from me is my honest read of the market and my record stands for itself. When I'm passionate about something... I'm rarely proved wrong, especially about the big things.
And yeah, I'm on here a lot. I was due to open a business when COVID put that on hold, so I've been twiddling my thumbs. I see a lot of people who frankly don't understand why things happened and I do my best to educate, so that the folk in our community are better prepared. I'm all for moving forward... since the crash, I've created threads showing tools that help people trade but you have know where you are and where you came from before you can know how to go forward.
Now, as for those guys that are leaving... there's a few decent chaps like @MickTurbo, @ScouseSte and @Advinculas-Index who I'd be sorry to see leave, but it's not like they are giving up their FI credentials... I'm sure they'll be back in a few weeks and if not, well, best of luck fellas.
@johnboywalker said in Wtf???:
I doubt it will have any effect on professional football at the highest level, but traders are potentially holding off investing further money in the platform at the minute due to legitimate concerns on how further restrictions could negatively impact the UK economy.
Yeah, I'd say that's probably on peoples radars. Also...
Many are expecting another major crash, given that the latest change has essentially created a bubble. In anticipation, some are selling now to try capitalise on that.
Others have lost complete faith in the product and don't feel confident placing bets, knowing that the bets change every 2 minutes and that there's a big change coming.
The market overall is still adjusting to what players are worth without the Instant Sell option, in a system where undercutting drags the price of players down.
FI has long benefited from 'New Blood' pumping cash into the market, but recent changes have made the product so difficult for new people (and long termers) to enjoy. Imagine if you started a month ago... learned the existing rules, started to feel comfortable... then the game changed, Brown Sunday happened... and the games changed several times since.... Those who were dipping their toe, might feel like a crocodile took their leg.
I can see from your post that you're entire view of the index, appears to be, that a player is only worth something, if they are producing dividends. It's a sound world view, hard to challenge with anything tangible... it's just not how I see the market.
Football Index to me, is a lot like Poker. The cards are important but the reason the same poker players make it to tournament finals isn't because they have the statistics of every combination memorised... it's because they play the man, not the cards. So while you're looking for the player who's going to trickle you in the dividends, I'm looking for the guy, I think others are going to be looking for.
The cycles of FI, mean that what works in January, isn't the same thing that works in February. So whilst your dividend approach might be super powerful for a few months out of the year, it might also be terribly weak at other points of the calendar. Which is why we see so many top end traders crying at the minute, where as those trading at the lower ends are making it rain. There will come a point where that flips but there will then come another point where the middle of the market is booming. Seems to me, the key is to be flexible and willing to change your strategy up as the market moves.
@Shippers said in Football Index has lost it's enjoyment:
Once stabilisers are off, orders books are in full swing, liquidty providers are throwing their millions around (which is needed) and this IPD promo has ended, i think things will start to feel a bit more normal.
Have you not noticed that it's always "Once so and so happens"... and then when it does "Once this and that happens"...
@DJ-110 said in Communication/Announcement?:
Well there is now an announcement finally on the front page.
Basically they don't have a clue what went on. It shouldn't happen again to that scale though was the only reassuring part.
Customer: "What happened?"
FI: "We don't know"
Customer: "Will it happen again?"
FI: "It was a one off."
Customer: "How do you know it was a one off, if you don't know what happened?"
FI: "Because if we say yes, you're not as likely to give us your money"
I was on here all day yesterday and I don't know how I missed this thread but... apology accepted my man.
It takes a certain level of character to make a public apology like that, it's mighty big of you and very much appreciated.
Here's hoping we get some good news on Tuesday, and we can all get back to our profitable trading.
00:52
I'm curious to see what it jumps to at the weekend. Seems to me there'd be a lot more people on Saturday/Sunday.
@Marksandygill said in Here's How Fake My Portfolio Value Is:
Pity you didn't sell him back to FI in January when he was actually worth around 34p!
I've made various in and out trades on Taremi in the time I've had him but I topped up in Janaury, as he landed a move to a Ligue 1 club. The deal was announced... then bizarrely the owner went into hiding on transfer deadline day. Turns out he had financial troubles.
@Timmy said in Here's How Fake My Portfolio Value Is:
@Dan-The-Man I think it's good getting out of Pulisic tbh. He might keep rising on hype alone but the last few markets have shown there is more concentration on dividend earners, and I don't see Pulisic being one. I expect him to be comfortably outscored by Chiwell and Ziyech most weeks.
I was looking at selling Pulisic at £3.88 on Brown Sunday before I knew about the crash. He was the only player in my port who had risen since the Thursday, and as I clicked through to sell him, his price tanked 50p.
I think he'll be back to that price sooner rather than later with him playing again now.
I am curious how Ziyech gets on in the Prem. That said, both are now at a price tag where I don't tend to trade. I do think Pulisic will prove himself though. He's still young and it's his second year at the club so I expect more out of him, especially now he has the likes of Timo to feed.
It will be interesting to see the ACTIVE TRADERS move.
Yeah, him going to Gent would have been alright, if Gent hadn't shipped out their best player ha.
My old buddy Tim Kleindienst at Gent plays his first PB game since I bought him. Would be positively orgasmic if he banged a hatrick in against Slovan Liberec
@SDOAFIT said in Fabinho positional change???:
@Dan-The-Man said in Fabinho positional change???:
@Doug-s said in Fabinho positional change???:
He'll be back up until then, do you think it'll help or hinder his PB Matrix scoring.
Could it benefit him bringing the ball forward from defensive play to attacking assists.
He did well last night and he did really well there a couple of weeks back.
I think if Fabinho is moved to CB whilst VVD is out, it will increase his own PB... but it will also increase his competition because someone else (Henderson probably) will fill the CM role, which means they will pick up higher scores too. The thing is... Liverpool are all over the place with fitness. Last night Henderson played the second half, Thiago is out... Wijnaldum hardly ever plays the full 90, Milner is arguably the fittest chap they have and he's ancient, so it's difficult to see who's going to occupy that CM role, if Fabinho is forced in to defence.
Fabinho picked up a 190 last night, albeit with the UCL bonus but he also picked up a 188 against Chelsea, when he spent the second half as a CB. So I don't think it will negatively impact him. We saw at times yesterday, Liverpool went into a back three, with Fabinho hanging around the opposition box quite a bit and he came close to netting more than once. Likewise, we saw Liverpool pass around the back quite a bit, which is why Van Dijk usually gets decent PB scores. Fabinho is a towering figure, so he's always going to attack corners and he's great with a long ball too, he's basically a Brazilian Van Dijk, with the ability to bang from 40 yards...
Given that his skill set is very similar to Van Dijk, if he replaces VVD as CB, there's no reason to think he won't achieve similar PB scores... (minus the clean sheet of course).
Van Dijk's PB scores in the last year have been Gold Day win worthy, so if Fabinho comes close it could be interesting, especially if we see any Single Match Gold Days.
The problem is isn't quite as dominant in the air as VVD so his chance of a goal is a bit less.
Probably the kind of player that if changed to a DEF would see a price rise but wouldn't necessarily justify it.
In midfield for 3 spots they have
Wijn
Thiago
Henderson
Keita
Ox
Milner
Curtis Jones
FabinhoFor 3 spots. Maybe 2 spots sometimes in a 4231 which they have used before.
Yeah, I don't think he'll be changed on FI to a defender... I meant his PB as a midfielder playing at CB (Which I still think won't be all that often as Matip will be back).
I agree he isn't perhaps quite as dominant in the air as Van Dijk. The swing to that roundabout being he can score from 30 yards but really it's the passing system that leads to high PB base scores. Liverpool play around the back quite often, then chuck a long ball forward which often turn in to assists or secondary key passes.
@Julian-Noble said in Boobies!:
Fabinho stay centre half for a while? After 30 mins of Thiago (ignore pen), I’m smitten everything is going to go through him. Different gravy.
Might get your wish.
@Shippers said in Here's How Fake My Portfolio Value Is:
@Dan-The-Man said in Here's How Fake My Portfolio Value Is:
I cashed out of Pulisic and Telles to give myself some liquidity.
Nothing wrong with "cashing out" and securing the profit mate.
It's more that I didn't want to trade out of those players is all but you're right, banking the profits from Pulisic, was pretty nice.
