Well said @LuaLua @Chris-J.

Im 33. Never really got involved with most forms of social media. Am more engaged with this forum already than all social media activity combined over my lifetime. I find most social media toxic, confrontational, cheap point scoring nonsense. People tend to forget there are actual living breathing people sat on the other side of the words they type.

Here the ethical, cooperative, humorous, friendly dynamic for the most part is palpable even if there are inevitable rare exceptions. Its the beating heart of the platform. Its what engages your users. Not everything is about making money even if thats the ultimate end goal for all users and FI.

The value that experienced users offer new users like myself is spectacular. The scope to have robust, well thought out discussion is excellent for the most part even if people inevitably disagree and it spills over sometimes.

The ability to have a good faith disagreement with someone on one talking point and find common ground on another is a common theme you dont find in too many places online. Harnessing that niche optimally is so so crucial.

You can spend all the money you like on marketing but the biggest marketing tool you have is free. Word of mouth, engagement and discussion with the community will take you a longer way to reaching your goals than anything else.

University's wouldnt work without the lecturers. You are the institution, your lecturers are essentially what gives the institution value in any ethical sense. Your lecturers exist within this place for free. Same goes for @The-FIG. Its invaluable to keep them all onside by listening to their constructive criticism, they do absolute wonders for your product. They engage your community like no other.

Would be wise to listen to your experienced members @DANFI. They add so much more value to your platform than you can imagine, especially in a time of spectacular growth of new users.

I dont get all this talk about wanting the site to freeze. Iv heard this around a few places. Surely we all want the index to be profitable and stable long term over earning a few quid in the short term? All this lets hope it freezes bollocks says a lot tbh. For any new users if you hear that sort of statement you should quickly realise whos prepared to sell you down the river for a few quid

I would like to get involved but i hope things run smoothly so it doesnt cost FI a fortune. Id rather they used that money more productively to expand the platform for everyone rather than line a select few greedy traders pockets.

Would much rather see a rise in pb divs than another deposit bonus.

@Mr-Random-number said in What could a No Deal Brexit do for the index?:

Oh dear here we go again. Yet again the people who voted leave seem to be the cool calm ones whilst the ones who voted remain that can’t except defeat (also the ones who actually created ‘the divide’) are showing themselves to still be full of hatred along with their filthy vocabulary.

Better to just end this topic now. 👍

i feel like iv entered the twilight zone reading your comment. You blame the other camp for creating a divide but have simultaneously used language to paint one camp as 'good' and the other camp as 'bad'?

The divide came the moment they presented the question in such an arrogant and ill thought out manner without any reference to actual details. With the way it has turned out they have created 52% of the voting electorate as 'masters' and 48% of the voting electorate as 'slaves'. That is where the divide has come from. The moment you turn this into a discussion about the righteous vs the unrighteous, you fuel the flames of the divide you claim that others do.

If you take issue with people questioning the result and how people have reacted then fair enough. If you want to say 'thats the result, now shut up, stop moaning' then its normal a loud minority the 48% of electoral 'slaves' will push back against a loud minority the 52% electoral 'masters'. Because 'shut up' is just a tactic tyrants use to shut down dialogue and tyrants are usually met with opposition.

This whole brexit issue kinda mirrors zimbardos stanford prison experiment findings in an eerie kinda way.

@THE-PL4YM4KER Kinda mixed really, Anything to do with overarching market trends im happy to buy in for bar most transfer spec (the bubbles created in that i have a difficult time assessing value unless its face smackingly obvious).

Was quite happy to buy into the top end players before the season started, went quite well. Was quite happy to play the comparative value game when the index went a bit fucked with all the non pb youth rises, went very well. Then bailed out of that during the deposit bonus and hid in mid tier pb before the dividend announcement, did exceptionally well (with a huge stroke of fortune)

Currently got around 20k in a port of 9 of good young english pb and mb players that have underlying value built on granite (apart from fred). Those holds wont make the most in cap app but all are solid as a rock atm. If the market cap was to hit the index tomorrow i wouldnt shit myself holding any of them as i know over time they will give me solid returns and the market wont penalize them because of age. The data sample from this season is pretty large now.

When exactly its gonna pop im not sure, but that £8.50 ceiling has been static for a long time and rightly or wrongly i think that barrier is going to be smashed through at some point soon, and when it does, those with the biggest underlying numbers will be dragged upwards with it.

I liken it to a chess game. A few weeks after all leagues had kicked off the market opened up with the pawns (non pb youth, cheap ipd rises). A lot of people wanted to play with their queens but became frustrated being stuck behind a wall of valueless bullshit.

Then after they had opened things up the knights rooks and bishops came into play (mid tier pb rises).

During or after this transfer spec phase its gonna come time for the queens to finally come out and play after 9 months of a top end ceiling. The bottom and middle have seen some huge rises yet the top end has stayed comparatively stagnant on the whole despite a 57% div increase. You may still have the odd pawn that gets over to the other side that transforms into a queen but during that time i fancy the top end who have underlying value built on granite will shift plenty.

I read in a thread yesterday someone comparing grealish pb to maddisons and not representing the data fairly. grealish has only this current matrix to look at historical averages, maddys average was represented by this matrix and last.

maddy pb average this season 156 with 4 scores over 200.

grealish average this season 125 with 2 scores over 200.

One player is touching the upper tier of pb in a way the other just doesnt.

If alli can manage to match his goal output of 2016/2017 id be willing to bet he can manage to hit a fair few 200+ scores to put him in contention for pb on some days also. A good base is for sure the most crucial part of picking a pb port ala kroos but as the likes of golovin sabitzer gnabry and havertz last season show, peaks also have a part to play in the pb game too. Give me those peaks over verrattis base any day.

Allis pb peaks unlike the others will also likely go hand in hand with a lot of mb too. The media dont give a shit about FI baseline scores, they give a shit about who scored the goals that won the game for their team.

@BeanDrown United also kick off early saturday morning. If rash can continue this form he could win mb and put himself in contention for pb on the first gold day.

Trents rise based on div potential. Hes won 17p pb/mb divs so far this season. Rashford come the end of tonight will have won 17p in pb/mb divs this season. Different positions granted, but there will be a correction in pricing over the next month or so imo. With pogba out he will also be the most likely united media darling.

Had rashford converted his pen sunday, he would have won star man and his pb numbers when playing out wide appear to be better than when hes been playing up top. He hasnt had the opportunity play out wide all that much with martials long injury lay off. In fact wide players generally tend to suit this matrix more than out and out centre forwards.

Edit: i misread the buzzbot stats for trent divs from the 18/19 season instead of this season, he actually has 17p in pb/mb divs so far this season, not 12p as mentioned b4. So him and Rashford are neck and neck. Sorry, didnt mean to mislead anyone, was a genuine error, than you @CJ0101 for bringing that up

Taken from FI sigmund Freunds twitter timeline. One of the best data analysts around on twitter (he doesnt use the forum so i thought his work deserved a little pump on here, its excellent for those who are that way inclined).

Obviously this model is imperfect and always will be whatever factors are taken into account. But it does give a rough around the edges assessment of value. Anyone who is that way inclined and has a few extra braincells than me could plot and build upon this based on their own port and how many different variables to take into account when creating your own projected dividend formula.

Its obviously not the only tool you can use in this current market but it does help to have data like this to hand when your ports taking a bit of a knock, even if its just from a psychological perspective.

I would guess this would be especially useful for new users and people who prefer to hold medium to long term. If you know what you hold is built upon a degree of relatively measurable value, the less likely you will make rash and impulsive decisions trying to follow market trends if things are not going well at any given moment in time.

And if anyone wants to poke obvious holes in this model thats ok, there are obviously plenty of holes that can be poked. But ill leave you with one of his last posts on twitter. This is a especially poignant point, especially for all new users around here or any other form of social media related to FI.

'You know all those tipping accounts on here...funny how they never share their model for assessing value (or the limitations of it). Almost as if they are just making it up as they go along based on who they can try to flog to the market...'

@SiobhanC welcome to the forum. My advice would be to play around and find out what strategies suit you.

Yes in the past 8 months it would appear you would be able to make the quickest gains lower down the market as evidenced by the price gap between the bottom and top end closing as noted by @Pagey74 and @Ericali advice.

When i joined 8 months ago the top priced player in the squad list was less then £1, it is now £1.50. The top priced player on the index ever was £8.50 (post share split prices) at the end of last march, its now £8.12.

Since that top end price drop the pb/mb dividends on offer have risen by 57% overall but top end player cap has not. Judging by that there is currently a psychological apprehension towards the top end by the market in general. Make your own mind up as to whether you think this will continue moving forward or not. Some people will tell you expensive players are not worth it and their reasons why, others will tell you they are currently available at a discounted price and are ripe for a rocket after a long period of stagnation. Make up your own mind, we all have arseholes with an opinion.

Try to understand the difference between cheap, expensive and value. Some players may be expensive and have no value. some players maybe expensive and are value. some players maybe cheap and have no value, some players maybe cheap and are value. Thats not a directive as to what strategy you should or shouldnt take, only make you aware if you are buying a hold built on sand or granite. You can make a lot of money holding crap over a period of time if you time it right and you you can lose money holding value over a period of time if you time it wrong.

Its a game of 3d chess that takes time to learn, but the learning process could be the most enjoyable and profitable you ever undertake. Some areas of the market you might like others you might not like. Beauty of FI is you get to call it as you see it, avoid what you dont like and put your money where your mouth is.

Find what suits you dependant on your temperament, knowledge, time, appetite for risk, patience and budget. That is more important than the who or whatever end of the market you want or should buy into.

Good luck!

I think at the moment they easiest way to get a grasp on the market is through comparative valuations to guage if there is much scope for movement, whether its rational or not. Thats just the way im playing, i realise its not for everyone.

Prices over time will be due a correction imo although im not saying this is in any way a failsafe strategy, we can all read the market wrong. Its inevitable the top end will get a pop in the short to medium term too at this current rate, the bottom to middle end can only push so far.

Having a look at the fixture list might help to gauge whether the players could be successful in the short to medium term might help too. And also have a look at their historical data, Whether it be pb or how often they played and/or scored goals this and/or last season, have they been injured or not, recent rises and falls, peak prices etc.

Also have a look on which days these players play and the times they play at. For example, playing at 3pm on a saturday afternoon keeps most players away from prying eyes, playing in a single match on a monday night when nobody else is playing tends to gain traction.

Just a few examples of comparative prices -

u23 mids

zaniolo 1.94
auoar 2.18
ruiz 2.22
kubo 2.22
odegaard 2.55
ihattaren 2.66
havertz 3.71

first choice, cheap forwards for big, non english clubs.

higuain 75p
cavani 80p
dzeko 94p
suarez 97p
benzema 1.03
milik 1.07
mertens 1.24
lewandowski 1.66
alcacer 1.71

u23 forwards

isak 1.43
bamba 1.57
oyarzabal 1.63
osihmen 1.80
boadu 1.82
malen 2.28
martial 2.96
haaland 3.17
felix 4.19

If your football knowledge is better than mine im sure you can do this down the lower reaches of the market easily, i just prefer to stick to what i know when comparing which leaves me in the upper lower to middle end of the market.

@ChazFI123 Young, Smalling, Rojo, Darmian, Valencia, Herrera, Fellaini, Sanchez, Lukaku gone, jones being frozen out, hopefully andreas and lingard to follow. Thats staggering and pain was inevitable. Look at how much pain revolution is causing the index atm, revolution nearly always comes with pain.

Greenwood and Williams being blooded like you say. Optimism for the future looks like a far more reasonable case to be made than the doomsday predictions of the past and it didnt take much more than a tweak of 1 or 2 players. Anyone who cant see this has been uniteds most important season since fergies retirement isnt watching closely enough.

Liverpools rise could be seen from a mile off even when klopp wasnt doing well points wise and they were inconsistent. If Sancho arrives in the summer i dont think United are far off either, only question for me would be if Ole would be the guy for that final step. I hope he is.

@ChazFI123 Joses team finished 2nd and i was still glancing over at teams below us enviously because you could see their vision and process and brand of football was much more palatable.

If ole gets top four with half a season of andreas and lingard its a 9/10 automatically given how well hes done reshaping the squad for the future. A step backwards can be a step forwards too.

The ole and united criticism seems to have gone quiet for the time being? Anyone think top 4 is out of the question? Interesting reading some of this thread back, jesus some of us chat right shit. Even hearing fans of rival clubs talk now about how we will win the league in 2-3 years which might be a touch optimistic under the current boss. Hope he proves me wrong tho.

Say what u like about Ole, maybe he isnt the most tactically astute coach in the league but his vision, his strategy, his player recruitment and shifting out dead wood rapidly has been second to none. Had bruno come in last summer this top 4 debate would have looked a bit silly. Whoever comes in after him is going to inherit a potential behemoth if sancho can be gotten over the line in the summer. Top 4 or no top 4, sancho or no Sancho the guy has done an excellent job whatever happens for that reason alone.

I can now see rival fans glancing over enviously at united as iv been doing with spurs liverpool and city for the last 3 years. Feels good.

@Erased-Citizen Did you trawl through the Tcs and Cs at the time? Have you gone through them with a fine toothcomb?

I remember having a bet on the 2012 sudamericana final between sao paulo and tigre. I had the brazillians at -1.5 on the asian handicap. They led 2-0 at half time and were absolutely dominant so my bet was coming through barring a complete miracle.

At half time the brazillian militia pulled a revolver on the tigre goalkeeper and tigre refused to come out for the second half.

Instead of completely abandoning or suspending the game the referee blew up and the trophy was handed to the brazillian there and then. Bet 365 subsequently voided my bet as the game wasnt completed in their eyes and in line with their T and Cs as they saw it.

I noticed when i went through their T&Cs tho that it was not watertight. I wish i had the document of the discussion i had with bet365 so i could relay the specifics of the conversation in the hope you could find something similar within their own rule book to trap them in.

The conclusion after around 2 hours of dialogue was the terms and conditions they had used to void my bet was used against them to pay it out. had the ref suspended the game or asked it to be abandoned to a later date i wouldnt have had a leg to stand on but because the ref gave a definitive result and the trophy was handed to sao paulo there and then, as far as i was concerned, and them too eventually, the game had been completed and the final result stood.

Again i wish i still had the dialogue with the gent with me, there was one particular line in their T&cs he could not get around to justify voiding the bet and i wish i could remember exactly what it was.

They paid out the bet. I would just wonder if a similar principle may apply given the league tables are standing as a final resolution rather than being completely voided or abandoned.

@ChazFI123. Sanches was all matched by 11pm saturday night. Others spent time fannying about with lowball bids in the 1.80s to begin with so i chose to undercut by a good chunk.

Dont normally hold more than 1000 in a player but had to top up to 1300 at that price. The rises on young pb friendly players are so obvious at the moment and he fits that profile like a glove. Recently voted into the l'equipe team of the season too and he was garbage for the first half of the season.

You know it makes sense.

Rather than try to get any old shit on the cheap that i didnt really want i bought from a shopping list that i would have paid full market price for at a £325 discount at current prices.

500 x James maddison at 4.12 (21p discount at current price)

500 x Reece James at 3.14 (30p)

300 x Renato Sanches at 1.95 (16p)

500 x Nicolas Pepe at 2.57 (5p)

500 x Samu Castilejjo at 1.03 (5p)

500 x Myziane Maolida at 61p (5p)

Well happy with that

@MickTurbo Im back on fred too mate but kind of accept his wins could come more sporadically cos his goal threat isnt that good. Hes always been a good value punt. He does have that extra media appeal and an insane dividend yield since the turn of this year tho.

Demirbay I think we both agree could be one of the best pb players on the index at any price point. Hes a behemoth in waiting.

@MickTurbo @HPcoys

https://understat.com/player/5273

Demirbays peaks are coming and when they do they are gonna be gigantic. After yesterdays misses the difference between his xg and actual goal output this season is staggering. He should be a 1 goal in 5 player instead of a 1 goal in 19. As mentioned in a previous thread this is the first season on record hes under performed his xg.

Hes slowly becoming my favourite hold just because of the obviousness of the rise thats coming if he stays fit and playing well. Hes nearly half the price of Kroos. Its unlikely he will be for much longer if he can begin to marry his actual output with his expected output like he has every season before this one.

@Spot-the-value. I got 94 of them, maybe someone had a bid in the q at the same price. Pleasure doing business mate.

@Spot-the-value. its up mate