One just to add that I don't think was mentioned. Mehmet Celik. Just turned 23 a week ago so still young. I think for euros the 'age' youth level will be slightly higher due to smaller pool and he fits into it. Starting fullback for Lille and Turkey. Average PB this season of 74. 70p. Unlike some of the euros fullbacks he hasn't had a rise but even if it takes a couple more months I think he eventually will.
Dr Jan Itor
@Dr Jan Itor
Posts made by Dr Jan Itor
RE: Euro Full Backs
RE: Speculation ahead of Euro2020 (Get em while they are fresh and cheap!)
How long till the next one of these euro cheap players emerges? Seems to be a new one every couple of days and we are only in February! Would be great if we could keep to just the one thread? I feel bad repeating my words, but at the same like everyone else don't wanna miss out! Anyway I'm gonna copy and paste my previous suggestions here, sorry it is long.
My original modeling I did 4 weeks ago (link at the bottom for those interested) has seen an on average 8% rise in each, with embolo and celik mostly letting the pack down. Some of these are repeats of other people's suggested.
Bruno Petkovic- Croatia starting striker. I suspect Croatia will do quite well this tournament. Very likely to finish top 2 in the group and a run to at least the quarters is well within them. Petkovic had a stormer of a qualifier, scoring goals and was pretty instrumental to cement himself as their lead striker. Downside plays in a non PB league but a good tournament could change that.
Mehmet Celik- Young Turkish fullback who plays for Lille. I found looking at the Turkish lineups recently that it was a little messy in terms of consistency, but Celik seems to be one of the few regulars. Expect Turkey to get through their group as well. Very promisingly I see there are links to the EPL, and all it takes is a rumour get a solid spike.
Kaan Ayhan- Another Turkish player who has nailed down a regular spot recently. Plays in PB league for Foruna. 8 goals in 89 appearances at club level, and 3 in 26 in internationals in pretty damn good for someone who plays primarily as a centre back
Nicolo Barella- Italy seem a strong bet to go deep in the tournament. They must be the favourites of any side to top their group? Got a good eye for goal and is pretty key in midfield 3 for Inter. Already some goals for the first team as well.
Manuel Akanji Switzerland will almost certainly shithouse their way to the last 16 and probably quarters. Akanji is hardly an unknown player and his form recently has been more wobbly. But measured up against a few metrics it seems he may be quite underpriced.
Breel Embolo- From what I can tell - he is raw. Struggled at Shalke a bit but very young and has certainly picked up his form at Monchengladbach. Could be ready for a breakout tournament. 34 international caps to his name at his age is insane. Maybe not quite as good value as some of the others.
Denis Zakaria- Hardly unknown but seems to be getting better and better. A decent tournament for him and there will almost certainly be media attention about a move to premier league side.
Jan Bednarek- 23-Starting centre back for both Southampton and Poland. Probably never going to win PB (like most centre back’s outside a select few). That said the going the going rate generally for young centrebacks playing reguarly in a PB league seems to be about .75-.90 so when he catches up that would be about a 30-40% roi.
Sebastien Szymanski- This kid looks promising for Poland. Playing outside of PB leagues in Russia seem a little off-putting, but he has one of the attacking slots in Poland’s 4-2-3-1 locked up, can play on either wing and has started in each of their last 4 games. At just 20 all he needs is a standout performance to see a significant rise in price.
Piotr Zielinksi- Locked in at the No.10 position of what should be a good Poland team (but then we always say this pre-tournament). His goalscoring record isn’t fantastic be warned, but for an attack minded player in a PB league (for a struggling but albeit huge club in Napoli) who is an international starter, 1.07 was simply fantastic value that couldn't be ignored.
Mykolenko - I think traders will pile into this one. Young-tick, full back- tick, exciting- tick links to big clubs- tick, high average pb scor- tick.
Original working here:
RE: Let's talk about Media Dividends
If MB is going to remain, you need to do something to stop a couple of news outlets essentially determining who wins most days. It is all well and good including more credible publications like the Independent or the BBC, but the Star or the Express, more often than not determines who wins. For example, there was one day early January (well before the Bruno Fernandes deal happened) where those two publications managed to rack up 60 articles between them. Yet an in-depth article from the BBC will rack up about 5% of those points despite have credible journalism behind them.
Those two publications business model is effectively clickbait. They generate revenue through ads and so it is in their interest to create sensationalist headlines that more people will click on. Even if completely fabricated. I believe we should be rewarding credible journalism, or at very least ensure that different outlets can genuinely contribute to whether a player wins or not. Either cap the amount they can produce, or have a depreciating value e.g. first article is worth 20 points, next one 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5 etc.
RE: Have you ever...
If you wanna make money that's the way to do it. About 4 weeks ago I restructured my port for the euros. Did I take into account who will win me dividends? Hell no! I just worked out a system to see who the lazy traders will buy and up 8% on those players already. Do I feel I've earned it? Not particularly but it's the sad reality on here.
RE: Im confused about this market and I think I need some help
I mentioned this on another thread recently but dividends are only a minor driver of a players price. This for a long time this has frustrated me as to avoid this being a Ponzi scheme there must be value underpinning the player. Yet the sheer disproportion on under 21s in the top 200 shows that isn't the case. I know there is a case for future dividends earnings, but some of them are priced substantially higher than a player who is currently returning the sort of divs they hope this player will return.
Sentiment drives the market and the quicker I worked that out and sadly accepted this the more money I have make. I can bleat and moan about the injustice of it all, but that doesn't win me money, I needed to play the game. If you can think about what excites the average football fan and get in early, you will make more money. Youth is pretty much the answer most of the time.
I do often wonder how sustainable it really is. But it appeals to the average football fan so this could keep going for quite a long time. I think whales and big investors here to make seriously money would be put off by this though. For the money they put in they want tangible benefits.
Eventually I think FI will need to put in tiered pb dividends, especially on gold days. That will certainly drive the value back to the players who make big pb scores
RE: Vitaliy Mykolenko
I think he's got a bit more growth left in him, but think he will now stall for next couple of months until the late comers to the euro party (otherwise known as the masses) join us. Once the top players saturate people will be looking for a young cheap toy to play with and he will be one of them. And because it's only a limited pool of players these players will go higher than their normal market value. My guess is he will hit an absurd 1.50ish for the tournament which will be my exit
@OldhamSam My first purchase on FI and my most loved. Takes Southampton freekicks corners and penalties. Has a respectable PB base and there are players priced way higher than him that have less chance of winning PB albeit of course still unlikely he will win. Also has recent England call ups and now that he has reinvented himself as a true centre midfielder rather than an attacking player means future call ups are not unlikely. You compare him to others on FI and he should be trading in the 1.50-1.80 range. I get that he was awful first few months of this season but so was the rest of the saints side.
The issue is he just isn't sexy enough. He's not out partying, hes just a nice kid and a football geek. I love his geekiness. But sentiment drives most of the market.
@ChazFI123 I've been on the platform nearly a year and it still catches me off guard how much sentiment drives the market. I currently hold a player with a very good pb base and had won me pb dividends this season that has risen from.79 to .8. (not divulging names so can't be mistaken as a pump :) also hold another player that has won zero dividends outside ipds that has doubled from .8 to 1.6 and still rising. I've actually structured my entire euros portfolio not on who will win dividends, but who I think lazy punters will buy. Sadly early signs show I'm right. If you can't beat them join them. That's been my biggest learning curve. I don't like this.
How's Rawson looking at the back? He's my bulldozer on FIFA. I've got a key spine of mcclousky (electric pace, can't finish a 1v1 the dick) Adams (box to box but lazy) and Rawson (turning circle of an oil tanker) carrying my side. Any of those descriptions accurate? I'm an Aussie Southampton (very rare) fan living in Bristol. But forest green have really caught my eye as a lower league club I wanna support.
RE: Prince Jadon!
Haven't read through the thread so apologies if I am repeating. But Sancho as king of the index drives me absolutely nuts. It is vital if we want to get more and more whales and big investors on board (as opposed to low level general punters) that the market be driven by dividends. It underpins the value of the index. Sancho at his current price should have driven way more than the 11p or whatever dividends he has returned in the last 6 months. His PB, if a move materialises, is unlikely to improve much given he's such a key player for one of the best scoring sides in Europe. It basically means you rely on mb for future dividends. And in the next 6 months he has competition from the euros (Kane and sterling especially) Neymar moving, Pogba moving, maybe mbappe moving, maybe Grealish moving and Messi at copa America. How much is he realistically gonna gain in that time? 50p at a very generous push. And what then after August passes and the media move onto their next toy and Sancho still doesn't give serious pb and also now only the next occasional MB (which FI have indicated they wanna move away from)? Does that sort of dividends return really justify the very top? I get why he would be worth a punt at 3-5. But to be top?!
Now I recently sold my Sancho at a way too healthy profit then I felt I deserved so I shouldnt moan, but this kinda crap I reckon puts off some serious investors that could lift all of us.
@Dr-Jan-Itor funnily enough I was driving to my local team Forest Green and I was listening to the Watford Spurs game and they kept highlighting Sarr v Tanganga as a mismatch and it was a worry, from memory he got booked early on. The biggest thing for me is about where his future lies positionally, would I invest in him as a CB? Probably not and I’m not an active enough trader to probably time my exit point well. But I have no doubt that at some point holders will be able to exit for a profit!
On principal I totally agree. If his future is as a centre back then his dividend potential (in current structure) is extremely limited and possibly overpriced already. But let's face it. Dividends is a minor driver in a players price. Which is something that always worries me here but so far hasn't stopped platform growth. Look at Henderson. Or even Sancho. Spurs English defenders have a phenomenal record of England call ups as well. Once everyone has forgotten that tanganga is a recent IPO, he will rise based on sentiment. One thing I've learnt on the index is to go along with the sentiment. I used to ignore it and only take into account dividend potential. Turns out I could make more money in other illogical ways... I think tanganga fits into that, but totally understand why you would avoid as well.
P.s. love myself some forest green. Gonna try and get to a game next month or so.