Warning: Long post so if you wanna skip to some undervalued youngster go straight to the bottom ;) But you will miss a lovely looking graph!
I admit, I haven't got the best record of catching a young player before they rise. This is a bit frustrating given there is a disproportionate number of under 21 year olds in the top 200 and plenty of money to be made there, even if the lads don't make it. And with IPO happening at such a slow rate, it is increasing difficult to catch them early as the pool of lessor known young talent gets smaller.
I had a bit of a think of where most people grab their information, given I don't think many actually watch many Eastern European or other non PB football! Which gave me the idea that some may be taking ideas from FIFA, as it's so easily accessible and widespread. I get there are way better ways to get valuations, like Transfermarkt, but its reach will be more limited, particularly with some newer traders who may make quicker and rasher decisions.
So I brought out my very limited stats knowledge and tried to identify undervalued youngsters on FI. I took a sample size of 160 players at 21 or under that have a decent value on FIFA and removed a few clear examples like Sancho. I would have done more if there was to export fI price rather than manual (please say there is a way!). I then took their FI price and ran them against one another which gave me the following chart (it's not the prettiest as don't have the software, but does a job)
![alt text](image url)
The key headline from this chart is that it has a co-efficient of 0.71. For those that don't know, basically means there is a strong correlation between the two datasets. The co-efficient would be even higher given we know FI doest value all positions e.g. Lafont is 15.5m on FIFA but 0.45 on FI. This is the point I got excited when I realised there is potential value in the bottom right quadrant of the graph.
I identified a number of players under a pound which to me represent excellent value. I can reasonable see a pathway to 50-80% roi on each of them after a bit of extra research. I'm not gonna give the whole rocket symbol thing and say they are the next Kings of the Index, but 50% ROI is excellent and I am very comfortable with that. It's also the part of the market I am expecting to grow the most when DB finishes and before an announcement on dividends..
I actually did this analysis a week ago but didn't have the funds to invest in all of them so the information is a week out of date, and actually quite a few of the players have risen. For transparency I've put their today price first, and the price when I started the analysis in brackets. Very encouraging signs though as they have gone up an average of 16% each and most of them still gradually rising, boosted a little but by DB I'm sure but also the release of FIFA.
Sander Berge- 0.88 (was 0.80). Genk. Probably the clearest case there is between difference if FIFA price and FI price. Has Champions League football. I have noticed him mentioned on slack a number of times as well as one to watch so I know a number of traders have an eye on him.
Jean-Claire Todibo- 69p (was 62p) - Barcelona centre back, very well thought of. Got a good chance of starting on the weekend. Definitely one for the future.
Bastoni- Inter Milan .56p (was .45p). Defender. Inter payed alot of money for this young man and is very highly considered and only 20 years old. Got his first start on the weekend as well.
Marc Cucurella- .74p (was .68p)- I really like this one. Listed as a defender but plays way further forward. From what I have read he is having an excellent season as well with a lot of room to grow here.
Saracchi- 0.52 (was 45p). One thing that came through in analysis is that lots of people are investing in Red Bull youngsters in the hope it is the next one off the line. Fullback that scored recently against Werder. Capped for Uruaguay. Cheap as you will ever find!
Dennis man- .60p (was 0.53). young player with a very good goal scoring record at steau bucaresti. Has had premier league scouts watching him. Downside of no Europa league this season, but breaking into the Romanian side so eligible for pb and has scored internationally. Cool name as well
Mykola Shaparenko- 0.67 (was 0.55). 20 years old. Dynamo Kyiv attacking midfielder/striker. Already playing for Ukraine national side and in Europa league, got a decent goal scoring record for someone his age. Most importantly he appears to be widely scouted, and encouragingly by premier league clubs rather than other pb leagues. Probably my favourite of the lot.
Abdulkadir Omur-0.98 (was 0.80p) 20 midfielder. Trabonzspor. Decent scoring record with 8 in 61 for a young player. Has Europa league and similar to Shaparenko is breaking into the national side. Links to premier league. Typically he is the one I bought less futures in and has risen the most.
Giorgi Chakvetadze. 0.88 (was 0.79). Gent midfielder. Coming back from injury. Has score 5 in 30 for the club and 5 in 7 for his national side Georgia. All reports suggest he's healed very well. And again has Europa league on top of internationals .
Of course, not all of these will be a winner but only need a handful to be a successful strategy so make of this what you will and hopefully this is a bit more evidence based then some of the pumps on here :)