I have finally got round to doing Part II! I got my finger out and sorted it like I promised a few weeks ago which was helped by seeing how traders did well out of the last lot. Once again I will caveat that every trader should do their own research on these names and not blindly follow!!
This time I am gonna do the reverse and put the players first and the methodology second as I am not sure if everyone always reads to the end as boredom (it is dry I confess) sets in. I’ve kept the descriptions of each player fairly brief but happy to expand on each if you would like.
Firstly though there are a few assumptions to the research which you may agree/disagree with:
At some stage over the next few months, more traders are going to get their portfolio ‘euro 2020’ ready
There has already been an initial wave of cash from those who are really on the ball. Some organised wankers had this sorted months ago.
A large number of traders love a punt. Even if they don’t think they are gonna put much effort into the euros, they will do as we approach the first game, especially if (when?) FI announce promotions. It’s why people gamble. These traders are more likely to lose
Money will first pour into the big names. KDB, Hazard, Pogba etc. These players will hit a bit of a saturation point and traders will look to the lower end of the market to investments. I suspect money will then flow based on 3 criteria
Money will flow to those most likely to receive dividends either IPDs or PB
Money will flow to young stars who could have a breakout tournament regardless of PB or IPD
Money will flow to players likely to start, unlikely to get IPDs or PB, but are as cheap as chips
Each of the players below meet minimum one of these criteria and most of them 2. These players I think are undervalued and could see solid 20-50% ROI by the tournament
Bruno Petkovic- 25. .68 Croatia starting striker. I suspect Croatia will do quite well this tournament. Very likely to finish top 2 in the group and a run to at least the quarters is well within them. Petkovic had a stormer of a qualifier, scoring goals and was pretty instrumental to cement himself as their lead striker. Downside plays in a non PB league but a good tournament could change that.
Mehmet Celik- 22- .73. Young Turkish fullback who plays for Lille. I found looking at the Turkish lineups recently that it was a little messy in terms of consistency, but Celik seems to be one of the few regulars. Expect Turkey to get through their group as well. Very promisingly I see there are links to the EPL, and all it takes is a rumour get a solid spike.
Kaan Ayhan- 25- .54. Another Turkish player who has nailed down a regular spot recently. Plays in PB league for Foruna. 7 goals in 89 appearances at club level, and 3 in 26 in internationals in pretty damn good for someone who plays primarily as a centre back
Nicolo Barella- 22-1.47 Really wanted to find an Italian and was very pleased that one came up as I think they will go deep in the tournament. They must be the favourites of any side to top their group? Got a good eye for goal and is pretty key in midfield 3 for Inter. Already some goals for the first team as well.
Manuel Akanji- 24-.92 interestingly I found Swiss players to be the most undervalued. Switzerland will almost certainly shithouse their way to the last 16 and probably quarters. Akanji is hardly an unknown player and his form recently has been more wobbly. But measured up against a few metrics it seems he may be quite underpriced.
Breel Embolo- 22-1.17 From what I can tell - he is raw. Struggled at Shalke a bit but very young and has certainly picked up his form at Monchengladbach. Could be ready for a breakout tournament. 34 international caps to his name at his age is insane. Maybe not quite as good value as some of the others.
Denis Zakaria- 23- 1.23 Hardly unknown but seems to be getting better and better. A decent tournament for him and there will almost certainly be media attention about a move to premier league side.
Jan Bednarek- 23- .50 Starting centre back for both Southampton and Poland. Probably never going to win PB (like most centre back’s outside a select few). That said the going rate generally for young centrebacks playing reguarly in a PB league seems to be about .75-.90 so when he catches up that would be about a 30-40% roi.
Sebastien Szymanski- 20-.86 This kid looks promising for Poland. Playing outside of PB leagues in Russia seem a little off-putting, but he has one of the attacking slots in Poland’s 4-2-3-1 locked up, can play on either wing and has started in each of their last 4 games. At just 20 all he needs is a standout performance to see a significant rise in price.
Piotr Zielinksi- 25-1.07 Locked in at the No.10 position of what should be a good Poland team (but then we always say this pre-tournament). His goalscoring record isn’t fantastic be warned, but for an attack minded player in a PB league (for a struggling but albeit huge club in Napoli) who is an international starter, 1.07 was simply fantastic value that couldn't be ignored.
Mykolenko - 20-.86p. I think traders will pile into this one. Young-tick, full back- tick, exciting- tick links to big clubs- tick, high average pb scor- tick.
There were some other players that got very close to this final list including Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Jakub Jankto, Edimilson Fernandes, Ludwig Augustinsson and Nikola Vlasic which you may also wanna take a look at and in my opinion could see good ROI and are worthy of investment.
The methodology follows a similar logic to last time so please refer up to original post. But just quickly: it relies on the fact that not all traders do their homework and will be looking for quick investments. They get their information either through databases like FIFA or FIFA Manager, or by a quick scan of stats like PB average or goals scored.
So what I did was grab the list of players for most players that have appeared in their national squads in the last 12 months. I then removed any player 27 or older as rightfully or wrongfully most traders don’t like this end of the market. I excluded some countries from analysis as they would most likely skew the data as more likely to be overpriced. England, Belgium, Netherland, Portugal, Germany were excluded. Italy and Spain were kept in there due to their easy group. I included some of the countries with a reasonable chance of qualification like Serbia. However it was too risky for me in case they fail but some others might like to take that risk. Goalkeepers were also excluded.
This gave me a sample size of 181 players.
Like before then I created a chart that mapped out these 181 players comparing their FIFA value against their FI value. This time though I also ran some modelling against their PB averages to have three sets of data to identify undervalued players. To whittle it down further, I then evaluated their IPD potential and reduced that number even further by accessing their likelihood of being in the starting XI - looking at the last 5 Euro Qualifier games to see frequency of starts. A final cross-check of injury status left me with the players listed above.
For reference here is the chart I used to guide this. Players whose PB score and FIFA value that were above their respective lines were the ones I was most interested in. I was also most interested in those in the cheaper end of the market.
Struggling to make graph sizeable so you can see it https://docs.google.com/document/d/18EU4Ogu4nolhxpPTpUb4iUddGExYr7O-uqc_vEaxGFU/edit