I joined FI about three weeks ago. I'm currently about 8% up, so not too bad.
I'm interested in hold and grow strategies, and wondered if any of you had any good ones. But rather than just ask, I thought I'd try and start the conversation with some analysis.
I wondered whether there is just natural growth going on in the system. More users, will just be creating a demand.
The first hypothesis I wanted to test is - good teams will grow more than "average" teams as joe bloggs is more likely to buy them.
So I looked at the top 4 teams in the Premier League, an "average" premier league team, and a newly promoted PL team. I also threw in the top 3 from Spain and Bundesliga. I did all of this from the start of the 17/18 season - and took the players who played (started or a sub) in the first two games of the season. I compared their price "today" (this was last week), and their price 1 year ago (using the "average" price displayed in the 1 year chart).
Results (if you bought every player in these teams from the start of last season, excluding dividends);
PL - Top 4: Liverpool 111%, Man City 98%, Tottenham 64%, Chelsea 56%
PL - Avg (West Ham chosen at Random): 12%
PL - New (Brighton chosen at random): 1%
LL - Top 3: Real 95%, Atletico 52%, Barcelona 45%
BL - Top 3: Bayern 80%, Schalke 74%, Hoffenheim 36%
So it does seem that the "popular" teams deliver better results than average. Obviously the teams that performed better in the season also delivered even better results, but you could just go "PL top 4, Spain top 3, BL top 2" and you would have got a return of 75%.
I then wanted to look at whether position or age had any impact on price change (this is all excluding West Ham, Brighton, and Hoffenheim).
Defenders: 89% (CD 82%, FB 100%)
Mid: 66% (DM 6%, CM 79%, AM 81%, W 43%)
Fwds: 85% (Striker 52%, Second Striker 132%, Winger 101%)
So slightly surprisingly the Defenders are the best return on average, but Second Striker is the best sub position (but this is because of Salah - 433%, so be careful with the analysis at this level down).
1983-1985 - 5%
1986 - 1990 - 65%
1991 - 1995 - 86%
1996 - 1998 - 146%
So there does seem to be a relationship with age - the older the player the less return, the younger the player the higher the return.
So you end up with a picture that says something like; Buy the Full Backs, The Central Midfielders, the Attacking Midfielders, and the Forwards from the Top 4 PL, Top 3 LL, and Top 2 BL teams as long as they were born 1990 or later (would be 1991 this year). If you'd done that a year ago you would have a return (excluding Dividends) of 97% - how does that compare.
Obviously all of this is historical analysis, so will almost certainly be wrong for future speculation - but I thought I'd open up the conversation!